Shut Up We're Winning

As it turns out, the myth of progress in Iraq is starting to wither, even on the terms of those who celebrate the surge. I'm talking about security gains, which up to this point had been dramatic in the last few months, but are starting to backslide.

Iraq security statistics over the past 13 weeks, obtained exclusively by The Washington Independent, tell the tale. In Baghdad, improvised-explosive device (IED) detonations explosions in Baghdad have ticked up slightly to 131 in January from 129 in December—and the last week of January is not included in these latest figures. Countrywide, there was an increase in IED explosions to 2,291 in December from 1,394 in November, followed by a dip to 1,270 in the first three weeks of January. But the week ending on January 25 saw seven suicide explosions Iraq-wide, the most since the week ending Dec. 21, 2007.

It is too early to conclude that the security gains of the surge are unwinding. But they’re being put under stress in a manner not seen since the so-called "Surge of Operations" began in mid-June. Some speculate that the insurgency, knocked on its heels by the changing tactics of U.S. forces in mid-2007, is beginning to adjust, a few months before the surge draws to a close. "I think there’s some credibility to that argument," said Brian Katulis, a national-security expert at the liberal Center for American Progress. "It all begs the question of what’s the grand endgame."

Today's double-bombing in Baghdad won't help those numbers, either.

Of course, this is all besides the point in one respect. The goal of the surge, as has been said over and over again, was to provide breathing space for a political solution. In the meantime it's very positive that less people are dying, but without a reconciliation those positive steps will be illusory, and absolutely everyone looking at this thing agrees with this. And after a few weeks of touting this obviously flawed de-Baathification law, one of the only ostensibly tangible points of political progress, war defenders are going to have to come to terms with the fact that it won't even become law.

Iraq's Presidency Council is unlikely to ratify a new law that would give thousands of former members of Saddam Hussein's Baath party their old jobs back, Vice President Tareq al-Hashemi said on Thursday [...]

Hashemi, a Sunni Arab, said the bill passed by parliament was flawed because it meant many people given jobs after the U.S.-led invasion to topple Saddam in 2003 would be forced out so ex-Baathists could return.

"We cannot regard this law as a step in the national reconciliation process. The spirit of revenge is so clear in many articles of the law," Hashemi said in an interview.

"It is not only me who objects to signing it, but the whole Presidency Council."

The surge is about to come to an end, and so too will much of that breathing space for political progress. And there hasn't been any. It's absurd to expect a continued involvement in the same way given this scenario. The relative success or failure of the surge has to hinge on the success or failure of the country as a whole. The data is very clear on this point. And it's also clear that this war, which has cost thousands of American lives and hundreds of billions of dollars, is hurting our national security.

The U.S. military isn't ready for a catastrophic attack on the country, and National Guard forces don't have the equipment or training they need for the job, according to a report.

Even fewer Army National Guard units are combat-ready today than were nearly a year ago when the Commission on the National Guard and Reserves determined that 88 percent of the units were not prepared for the fight, the panel says in a new report released Thursday.

The independent commission is charged by Congress to recommend changes in law and policy concerning the Guard and Reserves.

It can't be denied that Iraq is the reason for this. It was an unnecessary war of choice that has resulted in decreased security, lost global authority, a more volatile Middle East, and too many dead.