Math Is Hard

But it happens to be the determining factor in who will be the nominee on the Democratic side, so it can't be shifted aside in favor of talk about "momentum" or "buyer's remorse. Frankly, Senator Clinton's campaign has waited too long to rally. She has a serious math problem. Considering that the nature of proportional delegate allocation means that it's highly unlikely to get more than 60% of the delegates in any one state, it is virtually impossible for Clinton to catch up in the pledged delegate count.

So here we go: Let's assume Hillary beats expectations and wins Ohio tonight 55-45, Rhode Island 55-45, Texas, 53-47 and (this is highly improbable), ties in Vermont, 50-50.

Then it's on to Wyoming on Saturday, where, let's say, the momentum of today helps her win 53-47. Next Tuesday in Mississippi—where African-Americans play a big role in the Democratic primary—she shocks the political world by winning 52-48.

Then on April 22, the big one, Pennsylvania—and it's a Hillary blowout, 60-40, with Clinton picking up a whopping 32 delegates. She wins both of Guam's two delegates on May 30, and Indiana's proximity to Illinois does Obama no good on May 6, with the Hoosiers going for Hillary 55-45. The same day brings another huge upset in a heavily African-American state: enough North Carolina blacks desert Obama to give the state to Hillary 52-48, netting her five more delegates.

Suppose May 13 in West Virginia is no kinder to Obama, and he loses by double digits, netting Clinton two delegates. The identical 55-45 result on May 20 in Kentucky nets her five more. The same day brings Oregon, a classic Obama state. Oops! He loses there 52-48. Hillary wins by 10 in Montana and South Dakota on June 3, and primary season ends on June 7 in Puerto Rico with another big Viva Clinton! Hillary pulls off a 60-40 landslide, giving her another 11 delegates. She has enjoyed a string of 16 victories in a row over three months.

So at the end of regulation, Hillary's the nominee, right? Actually, this much-too-generous scenario (which doesn't even account for Texas's weird "pri-caucus" system, which favors Obama in delegate selection) still leaves the pledged-delegate score at 1,634 for Obama to 1,576 for Clinton. That's a 56-delegate lead.

It's just not possible. And before you think that all Clinton needs to do is get close enough in the pledged delegate race to have the superdelegates overturn the will of the voters, it's actually just the opposite: the superdelegates are going to try and push Clinton right out of the race.

Tom Brokaw Says Obama Has 50 More Superdelegates in His Back Pocket

NBC News superreporter cites a source "very close to the Obama campaign" who says the additional superdelegates are "ready to go public before too long."- The Page

That would completely wipe out whatever gains Clinton may make tonight and then some. And I'm not even certain that, despite late movement to Clinton, she's going to be able to pull off a sweep of the big states tonight. Though turnout in Ohio is considered high, you can't tell me that the horrible weather in the southeastern part of the state, Clinton supporter and Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland's home turf, isn't going to be a factor, particularly for seniors. And the ridiculously large early voting in Texas, which appeared to favor Obama, is going to be a big hurdle, not to mention the hybrid primary/caucus setup.

There are also election irregularities in Ohio to track.

But what happens tonight, whether it's a victory for Clinton or Obama, will be across a very narrow band. Realistically, there's not much that Clinton can do to make up that delegate lead. As Markos says:

. If Clinton doesn't make substantive gains on the race that matters -- the delegate race (remember, the Clinton campaign said it was all about delegates after Iowa) -- then there will be a major push from Obama and the party to shut this thing down.

Bill Richardson has already said the delegate leader after today should be the nominee (which by default is Obama, since Clinton couldn't possibly overtake him today). There's the Tom Brokaw announcement that Obama has 50 super delegates in his pocket, ready to announce post-election. And aren't you wondering why Obama's campaign hasn't announced its February fundraising numbers yet?

Expect Clinton to get the early media spin victory, but soon expect the hammer to fall -- 50 supers, a gazillion raised in February, and high-profile converts like Richardson will create intense pressure for Clinton to call it a day.

If she doesn't, she can continue running. It's a free country, and I like the thought of both campaigns building infrastructure in Pennsylvania. This primary season has done wonders for party building, and I'm under no hurry to shut it down. And Hillary's campaign can continue to play "Karl Rove" to Obama's effort. It's good practice for the shit Republicans will fling at Obama this fall. And if Obama can't handle the Clinton crap, how's he going to handle the McCain crap? So I'm cool with that as well.

But realistically, Hillary Clinton would be little more than our version of Mike Huckabee, nominally in the race, but everyone else having moved on.

Those are cold, hard facts. They really can't be spun away.

UPDATE: It's brilliant that MSNBC's mannequin is getting the information on delegate counts from a 14 year-old girl reporter from Scholastic News. And then Contessa Brewer goes "Do you really care about this stuff?" Because if you do, young lady, you'll never make it as a reporter!