Super Tuesday Two Minus One: Where We're At

Reading through the latest polls and some of the blog chatter, it looks to me like Super Tuesday Two is going to wind up a draw. Despite Obama supporters leaning on Hillary Clinton to drop out if things don't go well tomorrow, both campaigns have opened offices in Pennsylvania, so I don't think this race will be ending anytime soon.

The polls seem to be moving in Clinton's direction in Ohio. Grassroots organizers on both sides are going to be key for turnout, but Clinton had a measurable lead during early voting, and so Obama will need to seriously outperform her - and the polls - in order to take Ohio. Obama is counting on massive urban support to cancel out Clinton's strength in the rural counties. Apparently, Clinton is paying phonebankers in Southern Ohio, so that could be a sign that Obama's strength is a bit more vigorous. Jerid has a look at what to watch out for on election night:

OH-17, specifically Trumbull County. I'm almost tempted to predict the result based solely on what happens here. Tim Ryan's district has been the focus of a lot of activity by both Hillary and Barack. Most of the African Americans live in the Mahoning County portion of the district, so it's less an indicator than Trumbull for the purposes of this primary. The Trumbull County portion of the district is largely white, blue collar, and Catholic. It should be Hillary country. If Trumbull County goes Obama, that's a big sign statewide.

OH-10 (west side Cuyahoga). Again, very white, ethnic, blue collar, and Catholic. Dennis has been campaigning (shocking, I know), and his base is precisely this demographic. There is also a sizable Latino community in the 10th. Hillary needs to build a big margin here. The smaller her margin here, the more trouble for her statewide.

OH-11 (east side Cuyahoga). Stephanie's district is going to go heavy for Obama, but how big will the margin be? There is a large group of upper income white voters who are likely to go Obama, but also a strong contingent of the perfect Hillary voter - white women over 50. Another place where Obama needs a big margin.

Ross & Stark Counties - Chillicothe in Ross (site of the 60 Minutes story), and Canton in Stark County, are natural bellwhethers statewide.

This story revealing a memo from the Canadian government suggesting that an Obama advisor reassured them that his anti-NAFTA talk was just talk isn't going to help either.

In Texas, the race was generally tied up when early voting started, and that early voting has been massive, particularly in counties favorable to Obama. The "two-step" nature of the caucuses favors him as well. Clinton's organizers in that state have significant roots in the area, while Obama's campaign feels "smaller — sometimes even makeshift, despite its considerable money advantage — but it also seems remarkably self-generating, drawing hundreds of the first-time campaign volunteers that have fueled his success elsewhere."

Then there are the New England states, where Vermont looks safe for Obama and Rhode Island for Clinton, although Obama did campaign in Providence over the weekend and drew twice as many supporters as Clinton did a week earlier.

If I had to guess, I'd say this will be essentially a draw from a delegate standpoint. Though Clinton's team will call that a victory and move on, I don't see how it is. She's down around 160 pledged delegates, and the two states between tomorrow and Pennsylvania, Wyoming and Mississippi, are both favorable to Obama; one's a caucus and the other has a significant population of black Democrats. So she could be down 180 or so pledged delegates by April, and North Carolina and Indiana are currently favorable to Obama as well. She'd essentially have to run the table to even get within 50 or so pledged delegates, and then she'd have to have a lot of other things go right (superdelegates moving to her, Michigan and Florida getting seated) in order to take the lead. However, winning Ohio will have a resonance, particularly as it's such an important general election state. I don't think there's any way she gives up if Ohio yields a victory.

UPDATE: There's going to be a "devastating ice event" in northern Ohio tomorrow, with sleet and freezing rain. That's EXTREMELY significant. Think about who turns out in awful weather.