Duck And Cover

I've seen some blogger types viewing the development that Iran could be backing away from the Mahdi Army as good news. I'm not so sure. Sadr's strength is not that he is being propped up by Iran, it's that he is a nationalist with substantial popular support. In particular, the Mahdi Army's aid to displaced victims of the war has consolidated his strength. So I'd be very concerned about this unless the Qods force is going to now intervene on the side of the national government, which will provoke a regional response.

Anti-American Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr gave a "final warning" to the government Saturday to halt a U.S.-Iraqi crackdown against his followers or he would declare "open war until liberation."

A full-blown uprising by al-Sadr, who led two rebellions against U.S.-led forces in 2004, could lead to a dramatic increase in violence in Iraq at a time when the Sunni extremist group al-Qaida in Iraq appears poised for new attacks after suffering severe blows last year.

Note also that Sadr is currently holed up in Iran, and that Iran's ambassador to Baghdad, while praising the government's effort to curtail "lawbreakers" in Basra, also said that the current US/Iraqi efforts to seal off Sadr City "is a mistake."

This effort in Sadr City has the potential to be very bloody. We've already seen 300 or so Iraqis dead in less than a month, and if Sadr calls for open warfare it's bound to get worse. We're in the middle of an intra-Shiite conflict now, and it's hard to tell friend from foe. In many ways the Sadr City operation is a symbol of why we shouldn't have invaded. There's a complexity to the local situation on the ground that we still don't have a good feel for. Not to mention that we appear only able to clamp down on populations for so long.

Elsewhere in Iraq, at least five people died and 18 were injured in separate bombings in the northern cities of Mosul and Kirkuk and the Diyala provincial capital of Baqouba.

The attacks capped a violent week that has raised concerns that suspected Sunni insurgents are regrouping in the north. U.S. and Iraqi troops have stepped up security operations in Mosul, believed to be one of the last urban strongholds of al-Qaida in Iraq.

The war architects and the spinners are claiming some kind of political center that is taking hold in Iraq. First of all, the government is closest to Iran, so are they calling the Iranians centrists? Second, it's not to be trusted. This ceremony typifies the entire adventure.

A ceremony at which Rice unveiled a plaque commemorating civilian deaths in the Green Zone was briefly delayed during one of several "duck and cover" alerts for incoming rockets during her six-hour visit to the fortified compound housing the U.S. Embassy and much of the Iraqi government.

Duck and cover is right.