Pennsylvania Ceilings

A bit on Pennsylvania politics heading into the primary. It's certainly interesting that the Lehigh Valley could swing toward Obama, suggesting that he may be able to recreate Ed Rendell's primary victory over Bob Casey in the 2002 Governor's race. There are lots and lots of colleges right in that area (Obama got thousands to a rally at Muhlenberg, one of about 20 colleges up there I could name off the top of my head), so I'm not too surprised. Still, let's not get out of control here. Obama has not received above 45% in any public poll this entire month. While I don't necessarily think that every undecided will break for Clinton, clearly there's a ceiling that Obama has had trouble breaking through that number.

I do think a 6-8 point victory is possible, which wouldn't really help Clinton all that much. While she'll make the argument that she took yet another big state, the popular vote shift may not be all that large, and she can't catch him in pledged delegate totals. Obama is already going after McCain and running something akin to a general election campaign, which is smart. And he's doing it on economic grounds, which will help in November.

“John McCain went on television and said that there has been great progress economically over the last seven-and-a-half year years,” Mr. Obama said. “John McCain thinks our economy has made great progress under George W. Bush? How could somebody who has been traveling across this country, somebody who came to Erie, Pennsylvania, say we’ve made great progress?” [...]

“Here’s what happened since George Bush took office, here’s what John McCain calls great progress,” Mr. Obama said. “We went through the first period of sustained economic growth since World War II that saw incomes drop; 11 million more Americans don’t have health care; 2 million more Americans are out of work; millions of families are facing foreclosure. The poverty rate has gone up. You are working harder for less.”

“You’re paying more for tuition, you’re paying more for groceries, more at the pump. That’s what John McCain calls great progress,” Mr. Obama said. Later, he added: “Only somebody who spent two decades in Washington could make a statement as disconnected from the hard times that people are facing all across America.”

Obama's tour of Pennsylvania is not a waste of time for the general; he's making very good use of it. But I'd be shocked if it results in a primary victory on Tuesday.