As featured on p. 218 of "Bloggers on the Bus," under the name "a MyDD blogger."

Tuesday, May 06, 2008

Gary Indiana, Gary Indiana, Gary Indiana

We're waiting on absentee ballots:

Rudy Clay, the chairman of the Lake County Democratic Party, said the counting of 11,000 absentee ballots is delaying the announcement of vote totals here. Although U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton holds a slim lead over U.S. Sen. Barack Obama in Indiana, most networks are waiting for Lake County's vote to call the state.

"I'm just as anxious as everybody else," Clay said.

This is still pretty much too close to call. Russert just said there are 220,000 votes outstanding and they're all from Obama strongholds. If he wins them 130,000-90,000, it's a tie. That's not at all out of the question.

Regardless of the "win," we're going to see what amounts to a tie in Indiana, particularly on the delegate counts. So Obama won the night, with a 200,000+ vote win in North Carolina. And this does change the game in a serious way. I think we're in endgame territory now.

UPDATE: Looks like Obama will pick up around 9-11 delegates on the night. And maybe 210,000 votes net. This basically wipes out her Pennsylvania win.

UPDATE II: Gary is coming in and coming in strong for Obama. 75-25 so far. The Mayor of Gary has predicted a shocker. It actually kind of looks suspicious, like they were waiting to see how many votes they'd need to win. Expect that to be the Limbaugh spin tomorrow when he recognizes that his Operation Chaos failed miserably.

UPDATE III: It's important to note, as Chris Bowers has, that none of this matters:

Does It Matter If Clinton Loses Indiana?

The answer to this question is obviously yes, since it will be a crushing media narrative against Clinton that will effectively end the nomination campaign tonight. However, the real answer to the question is no, since a 1% Clinton victory and a 1% Obama victory in Indiana swings only one PLEO delegate, and maybe one or two district-level delegates (or, maybe no district level delegates) [...]

Here is the bottom line: no matter the final popular vote outcome of Indiana, very few delegates will change hands and Obama will remain the overwhelming delegate favorite no matter what happens. This was as true entering tonight as it is right now. That the news media covering the campaign isn't bothering to point this out demonstrates just how detached their coverage, and their metrics, have always been from the actual campaign. In this case, following the idiotic, arbitrary, unrealistic media rules benefits Obama, but overall it means we are still playing by their stupid rules.


UPDATE IV: Obama's going to come up just short. It's a 17,000 vote margin with 95% in. Lake County is now 56% in, and it's running 65-35 for Obama now. Apparently what's left in Lake is in more Clinton-friendly areas. I think this could get to 10,000 votes, but no closer.

UPDATE V: I guess the talking heads are finally figuring out that this is over. It has been over for a while, but now it's sinking in. Let's re-unify and work to defeat McCain.

UPDATE VI: It's pretty much over. Hillary's up to a 22,000-vote lead with 98% of the vote in. The networks could call this. However, it's a two-point victory, basically a tie, and so the narrative is all to Obama.

UPDATE VII: No public events for Hillary Clinton tomorrow. Lot of soul-searching going on, I'd bet.

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