As featured on p. 218 of "Bloggers on the Bus," under the name "a MyDD blogger."

Tuesday, May 06, 2008

Indiana and North Carolina

Well, Indiana's polls closed and it's "too early to call," which means they're waiting to see some early results in NW Indiana (supposedly Obama country) before making a projection. That gasbag Terry McAuliffe is on my teevee right now crowing about Indiana with a very minor mention of North Carolina. He's flopping like a fish on the question of whether or not Hillary will gain delegates tonight (answer - probably not).

I'm just too worn out by this process to dig into the exit polls, but it looks like a split, the economy has become the overriding issue, turnout is huge, and the party is polarized. However, that's a SNAPSHOT. We're six months out until the Presidential election, so no need to hand-wring just yet.

UPDATE: Chris Bowers sez that the quick snapshot of the exit polls show a 4-point Clinton win in Indiana. Right now with 12% in she's up 16. So it's probably somewhere in there, but closer to the exits.

UPDATE II: Barack Obama has won the North Carolina primary, NBC News immediately reported upon the close of the polls. So it looks like a big win in NC, and a smaller win for Clinton in IN. That favors Obama. Right now the margin is 14 points in IN with 17% in (I'm guessing some of the big African-American areas aren't in yet).

UPDATE III: Monroe County, the home of the University of Indiana, isn't in at all yet, so that's probably why we're still waiting on a call in the state (South Bend, home of Notre Dame, also isn't in yet. That could be very interesting, it's young but white Catholic). North Carolina looks like a big victory. This is pretty much as advertised, though perhaps a late swing overall to Obama, however slight. He's likely to win the delegate race tonight.

I don't think Hillary will quit this week unless every uncommitted superdelegate comes out en masse or something, and that's not likely to happen.

UPDATE IV: Chuck Todd is talking about an advantage of 9-15 delegates for Obama in North Carolina, and if the numbers get as high as 57% for Obama he'd wipe out Clinton's popular vote win in Pennsylvania entirely. By the way, North Carolina is a big state and a swing state in November.

I cannot believe that CNN did not poll the gas tax issue. It was the only policy talked about for a week or two. How do you poll Rev. Wright and not the gas tax?

UPDATE V: Obama is actually closing the gap in Indiana a touch. The spread is now 55,000 votes. Still no sign of Gary, South Bend, Bloomington or most of Indianapolis. Actually a lot of the NW Indiana/Chicago media market is out. I don't think he can pull it off, but it could get interesting.... never underestimate a person's regional base. Obama voters are going to come out of the woodwork in NW Indiana.

UPDATE VI: Interestingly enough, CBS called Indiana for Clinton while nobody else has. The spread is 56,000 votes with half of the vote in. This will be mid-single digits for Clinton at best.

UPDATE VII: The spread in Indiana is down to 54,000 votes, and Gary, South Bend and Bloomington continue to not be in. The percentage spread is down to 8 points, back to single digits.

UPDATE VIII: Well, South Bend wasn't much of a haul for Obama, 53-47, but Elkhart County was a huge win, 59-41. There's a possibility Obama still takes this. It's still about 50,000 votes, however, and at some point he's got to start catching up.

UPDATE IX: I gotta tell ya, this is reminiscent of Missouri, with all the African-American precincts coming in late. We're at 53-47 in Indiana and Gary is not yet in, and big turnout was expected there.

By the way, Harold Ickes is super classy.

This is what Harold Ickes, a longtime advisory to both Bill and Hillary Clinton, told Mark Halperin of Time's The Page tonight:

“We don’t know enough about Senator Obama yet. We don’t need an October Surprise. And (the chance of) an October Surprise with Hillary is remote.”

Thanks a million, Harold. You're really the heart and soul of the Democratic Party.

Down to 49,000 votes in Indiana now.

UPDATE X: MSNBC just changed Indiana to "Too Close To Call." That's very significant. Obama just started speaking in North Carolina. Hold on to your hats.

...very weird, Obama kind of conceded Indiana at a time when the gap is narrowing (now 47,000 votes).

UPDATE XI: Obama is sounding a unity theme, but about united Democrats. This is an excellent message for this speech. And he's all over McCain.

UPDATE XII: Down to 38,000 votes, and Gary REMAINS out. Wow. And Obama's delivering his usual good speech. And I love the line "The question is not what kind of campaign they will run, it's what kind of campaign we will run." Damn it feels good to hear a Democrat say that.

UPDATE XIII: 35,000 vote 31,000 vote spread now. Clinton is clearly waiting until the vote is called by all the networks until she speaks. And Gary remains out. Meanwhile, North Carolina is a 16-point lead for Obama and will probably come in more like 12-15.

UPDATE XIV: Usually presidential nomination fights end because of money. Clinton has basically been living primary to primary, and I can't imagine her being able to raise the cash to continue unless she loans herself more money. And she certainly can do that, but the question is "to what end"? I think Clinton will eventually win Indiana by a couple points, but will she be unable to win the money war and be forced to drop out for that reason?

UPDATE XV: We're back up to 39,000 votes with 82% reporting, and Lake County (Gary) isn't expected until 11:00pm ET. So I'm taking a little break.

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