The GOTV Gap

John McCain's faults have yet to be fully exposed in this Presidential campaign. His desire to be seen as an independent maverick yet also to be acceptable to the Republican base results in him flipping and flopping and flipping again on all sorts of issues, for example now saying it's unclear whether Bush's wiretapping was illegal despite saying he would continue it (novel, a President arguing FOR breaking the law). There are other issues, not fully explored by the public, where the fig leaf of independence and moderation is completely off base, like with respect to women's health issues. And he has a history of infidelity, leaving his first wife who was disfigured in a car accident for a second wife who bankrolled his political career, that is largely unknown to the public.

However, there is one group that's very aware of McCain's deficiencies and will not be likely to lift a finger to help him get elected, and that's the evangelical community. I doubt that this is limited to Ohio:

As the architect of Ohio's ballot measure against gay marriage, Phil Burress helped draw thousands of conservative voters to the polls in 2004, most of whom also cast ballots to reelect President Bush. So Burress was not surprised when two high-level staffers from John McCain's campaign dropped by his office, asking for his help this fall.

What surprised Burress was how badly the meeting went. He says he tried but failed to make the McCain team understand how much work remained to overcome the skepticism of social conservatives. Burress ended up cutting off the campaign officials as they spoke. "He doesn't want to associate with us," Burress now says of McCain, "and we don't want to associate with him."

That meeting and other run-ins with conservatives, some Republicans say, have revealed the depth of the challenge facing McCain: mollifying Republican constituencies that have distrusted many of his policy positions, in order to build the machinery needed to push voters to the polls in November.

If McCain tried to gather his volunteers in Ohio, "you could meet in a phone booth," said radio host Bill Cunningham, who attacks the Arizona senator regularly on his talk show. "There's no sense in this part of Ohio that John McCain is a conservative or that his election would have a material benefit to conservatism."

Social conservatives are likely to vote for John McCain, if they get around to it that day. But there's unlikely to do anything else. They won't stuff an envelope, they won't walk a precinct, they won't make a phone call. On Election Day 2004, this group make up most of George Bush's ground army, the ones that implemented the 72-hour plan for victory.

By contrast, Barack Obama, who has his own problems with rural voters in Southern Ohio, isn't going to be wanting for volunteers. He's going to have activists fanning out across the country, putting the voter outreach projects already seen during the primary campaign to work in the general election. That's going to be a significant gap, and it's the kind of thing that tips elections to the side with the most ground troops doing GOTV.