Deal Time

Deadlines involving getting measures on the state ballot (which may be necessary for finishing the budget) are leading to speculation about a budget deal in Sacramento. Of course, I'll believe it when I see it. But here's the latest:

Expectations are that there will be a temporary sales tax, some kind of spending cap perhaps like the one recommended by the Legislative Analyst’s Office, and that local governments will take a hit, possibly those permitted under Proposition 1A that allows local property taxes to be borrowed and requires repayment within two years.

Since at least some of these actions require a ballot item on the November ballot, the calendar requires action this week. This Saturday, August 16, is the drop dead date that Secretary of State Debra Bowen has written the legislature that ballot measures need to passed, even with a legislative passed exemption from deadlines that are in current law. The time is needed in order to print ballots and a supplemental pamphlet in time to get these to the voters.

Indeed, time is also running out on Prop 1, the high speed rail bond, and efforts to amend and strengthen it. There may be a deal which would place a separate measure, Prop 1A on the ballot that has these changes.

Dan Walters is hearing the same thing. Sounds like a Sacramento compromise where the conservatives that dug in feel no pain for their intransigence, all the solutions are temporary, nothing structural is addressed, the GOP extracts a MAJOR concession in a spending cap, and local governments get robbed. Considering that Schwarzenegger can blue-pencil out anything he wants after the fact, and the final deal may give him MORE authority to cut spending, giving up the Orwellian-titled "budget reform" without structural and not temporary revenue reform would be a mistake. But we don't have all the details yet.

I'm not seeing much of a strategy here to campaign on the budget, aside from a few outside groups. The 2/3 requirement is the only way out of this vicious cycle. We can talk about "more leadership" but really the answer is to make Republicans pay.