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As featured on p. 218 of "Bloggers on the Bus," under the name "a MyDD blogger."

Friday, September 12, 2008

CA-AD-10: Fleischman Sounds The Alarm

You do not see Flash Report's Jon Fleischman, who represents nothing if not the internal voice of the California Yacht Party (he's the Vice Chair, after all), this concerned about a Republican-held seat. Not every day.

The Democrats have moved the 10th Assembly District near the top of their wish-list, and for good reason. First, the seat is open, which always makes for a more interesting contest. Second, a once six-point Republican partisan voter registration advantage has shrunk to just two points.

The 10th District is located in the San Joaquin Valley, split over four counties -- El Dorado, Amador, Sacramento and San Joaquin.

Compounding matters for Republican strategists, not only was there a pretty brutal GOP primary contest back in June, but this seat overlaps several U.S. House seats that will likely see action -- CD 3 where Dan Lungren is seeking re-election, CD 4 where Tom McClintock is running, and, of course, CD 11 where Dean Andal is trying to take out freshman Democrat Jerry McNerney (this is a top tier seat).


What Fleischman is correctly describing is what I would call the "Carol Shea-Porter effect." In 2006, Paul Hodes got a lot of establishment and netroots support in his Congressional race in New Hampshire, while the neighboring Carol Shea-Porter got virtually none. However, the state of New Hampshire all resides in the same media market. So Hodes' ads pummeling his opponent and Republicans in general ended up resonating on Carol Shea-Porter's side of the district. In the end, both Democrats won, with Shea-Porter's victory a major upset.

The same is true for Alyson Huber in AD-10 and her race against Yacht Party member in good standing Jack Sieglock. With contested elections throughout her area - in CA-11, CA-03 and CA-04 - Huber's message of change and fighting failed conservative values and ideas will be amplified. In addition, the GOTV programs from those candidates will snag voters for AD-10 (and Joan Buchanan in AD-15) as well. With 82% of voters seeing the budget as a major problem, this is a teachable moment for Democrats, who can tie the burdensome 2/3 requirement and Republican ideological intransigence to a state falling behind, and drive home the need for fundamental change.

Sieglock's bitter primary has given Huber a head start up here. Even his consultant agrees: "Jack is a very good candidate, but he's had a tougher road through the primary than his opponent, and that puts us behind." Add that to the more sophisticated GOTV program for Democrats this cycle, and AD-10 is well within reach. With some good bounces, we can get to a 2/3 majority.

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