Kim Jong Ill

If Kim Jong Il is on the verge of death it's a pretty bad situation for the world. There's no defined line of succession in North Korea and his kids are really a couple of lunatics with no ability to hold the country together, so what we'd be looking at is a military takeover. And the military is forcefully against any disarmament. Matt Yglesias thinks this is a pessimistic view but he neglects the very real progress being made with North Korea prior to Kim's illness. Kim had a nominal responsibility, not to his countrymen per se, but to his own sense of honor and self-reliance, known as juche in the vernacular. The imminent starvation of half his population really did force him to concede on the nuclear front in order to get in some much-needed aid. I don't think a military junta would respond accordingly. They have no pretensions to godliness like the Dear Leader, and if you look at the example of Burma it's at least likely that their concern for the citizenry would be a touch indifferent.

This is kind of a scary moment for the world - a nuclear state potentially falling into the hands of a junta. We need a measured response, not hothead leadership from an uncontrollable boor like John McCain.