Iraq In Fragments

It's frankly been a bit stunning how far Iraq has dropped off the radar screen this election season. 140,000 American troops still in harm's way (25 Americans died in September, and hundreds of Iraqis) and you wouldn't know the place existed.

I think what's going on is that Americans have made their minds up about the war. They want to leave, whether for reasons that it's unwinnable or that it's already won. Either way, Republican demagoguery isn't going to work. Sarah Palin's worst marks at the debate came when she offered that Joe Biden wants to "wave the white flag of surrender" in Iraq.

It should be clear that Iraqi isn't a sunny place right now, despite the GOP bleatings. Unemployment is between 30 and 60% in the country. Only 37% of people feel safe outside their immediately neighborhoods, and that's likely to drop as internally displaced Iraqis return home to find their areas ethnically cleansed and guarded by sectarian militias. As Prime Minister Maliki takes responsibility for the sons of Iraq, the Sunni awakening groups, he may actually dismantle them or refuse to pay them, leading to tension and perhaps violence. And the Turks are again launching airstrikes against Kurdish rebels inside northern Iraq, which has the potential to open up a new front in the war.

John Negroponte claims that a status of forces agreement is imminent, which would include the dreaded timeline, with troops out of the major cities by next summer and out of the country by the end of 2011. This is vital and should be sped up. The problems with the political situation are being masked by the US military involvement. Maliki is trying to become a strongman and using our troops as a proxy. Building a new dictatorship in a restive country with sectarian conflict is not advisable. Surging diplomatically and withdrawing is the only way to force a solution.