McCain's 6-State Strategies

Earlier today we heard that the McCain campaign has pulled out of Michigan. Now, in a conference call, they're admitting that they're playing nothing but defense:

Asked to explain their route to an electoral college win, campaign adviser Greg Strimple cited the following six states -- Ohio, Virgina, Florida, Missouri, Indiana, and North Carolina -- and described them as "all states where we're tied or ahead."

Strimple added that victories in all of them would effectively give them a route to victory, when combined with wins in other battlegrounds. But he seemed to clearly state that those six were crucial to them winning -- the foundation for their victory. All of them, of course, went for Bush four years ago.

Well, if that's true, he's already lost the election.

This does not include any of the Kerry/Gore states, which add up to 252 EVs; Iowa or New Mexico, which are looking good for Obama and are another 12 EVs; or Colorado and Nevada, either of which would get Obama to 269-plus. I don't think you can credibly put any of those states closer to the McCain column than the 6 "battlegrounds" the campaign lists. Which means that McCain is essentially fighting for a close loss. Because he's conceding as much as 278 electoral votes.

Chris Bowers is a much better McCain strategist - he tells them to get out of every Kerry/Gore state but New Hampshire, and puts Colorado and Nevada into their carpetbombing strategy:

Carpetbomb Colorado, Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio and Virginia with paid media, mailings, field, staff, rallies, retail politics, the works. Seriously--don't target any other states except those six, based on the reasonable assumption that if McCain wins all six of those states, he will also pick up Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina and West Virginia. Supplement this narrow targeting strategy, and counter the 50 state investment by the DNC and the Obama campaign, with a high intensity national cable campaign designed to maintain national poll numbers and possibly shake another state or two loose. If the strategy works, then McCain wins the electoral college 278-260, and possibly edges Obama out in the popular vote.

For the Obama campaign that means that any single state of Colorado, Florida, Ohio or Virginia, or the combo of New Hampshire and Nevada, or any permutation thereof, gives them the win. And of course, there are the states that the McCain campaign mentioned, Indiana, Missouri and North Carolina, though I agree with Bowers that it would be difficult to imagine a scenario where those flip without the ones above doing the same. But it could happen.

Obama has a lot of paths to victory while McCain has basically one defensive strategy, where he has to win practically everywhere. Despite that, this is still a race.

And the very good news is that Obama's upward rise in the polls appears to have coattails, which in many ways is just as important. We need a stronger Congress, with some better Democrats, in addition to the Presidency.

UPDATE: I'm getting a better sense of what the McCain campaign is thinking.

Their map: Win six toss up states -- Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Virginia, Indiana and Ohio -- that have traditionally favored Republicans and hold the solidly GOP states to get to 260 electoral votes. Then find 10 more electoral votes in some combination of Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.

"To say we are on defense is not true," insisted Strimple. "We are aggressively using our resources in states where we have to win."

Maybe. But the problem with that logic is it assumes McCain can hold those six red state tossups, which, in the case of Ohio, Colorado and Virginia (at least) looks to be a dicey proposition.

So the six battleground states are a firewall, essentially. Of course, they have to scrounge up 10 EVs somewhere else even if they hold all six of those firewall states.