Nevada

A Suffolk poll shows Obama up 10 in Nevada. I've been doing a lot of grasssroots work, mostly with Nevada, and the great thing about that state is that their early voting stations are plentiful (practically at every Albertson's) and Obama's people have made early voting a priority. Pretty much every Democrat you talk to out there says they're voting early. One estimate, based on 2004 numbers, is that 40% of Nevada has already voted. Now, that'll be less because I think turnout will eclipse 2004. But the point is that McCain will have LOTS of ground to make up on Election Day, probably too much.

And adding Nevada to Iowa, New Mexico and the Kerry states gives Obama 269 electoral votes, which would give him a tie in the Electoral College. Plus there's Virginia, Colorado, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Missouri, Indiana, West Virginia, Montana, North Dakota, that extra electoral vote in Nebraska....

Let me remind you, however, with an assist from the Obama campaign, not to get overconfident: