No SOFA?

If George Bush seems more panicked than usual, it may not be because of the financial crisis, which he's outsourced to the Treasury Department anyway. It's probably because he might have to end his great and glorious adventure in Iraq:

With time running out for the conclusion of an agreement governing American forces in Iraq, nervous negotiators have begun examining alternatives that would allow U.S. troops to stay beyond the Dec. 31 deadline, according to U.S. and Iraqi officials.

Neither side finds the options attractive. One possibility is an extension of the United Nations mandate that expires at the end of the year. That would require a Security Council vote that both governments believe could be complicated by Russia or others opposed to the U.S.-led war. Another alternative would amount to a simple handshake agreement between Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and President Bush to leave things as they are until a new deal, under a new U.S. administration, can be negotiated.

Negotiators have been stuck for months on the question of legal jurisdiction over U.S. troops and immunity for possible crimes. But even if the sides reach a deal in the next few days or weeks, it is not clear that a formal status-of-forces agreement could be approved by the end of the year. Maliki has pledged to submit an accord to Iraq's divided parliament before he signs it -- a promise he reaffirmed last week during a visit to Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, Iraq's most influential Shiite cleric. Sistani has said he will not endorse any document without the support of Iraq's population and political factions.

There's no way it'll get finished - the original timeline was that it would have to be signed in July for it to work its way through the Iraqi Parliament, and even that was ambitious. There's not going to be any SOFA, and the negotiations will be left to the next President.

This is a manifestly good thing. Even though Bush was getting twisted in the direction of a withdrawal timeline, the details were sketchy and it was still put far into the future. This way the next President can implement what he's running on. And it's clear that the sectarian violence at the root of the security problems still exist, because the influx of troops have merely papered over the core challenges. Christians are being massacred in Mosul, and those five million who have been internally displaced face chaos upon return. The country can only function under ethnic separation and martial law, which means that meaningful reconciliation has not taken place. Until the crutch of American occupation is removed this process will not take place.