Yep, He Did Concede

After denying that they were giving up on states like Colorado and focusing on Pennsylvania, the McCain campaign essentially copped to it by reducing their ad buys in the Rocky Mountain State and four others:

Democrats who monitor advertising spending now put at five the number of states where Senator John McCain is reducing his advertising – New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Colorado, Maine and Minnesota.

In essence, Mr. McCain’s campaign has decided to spread the advertising time he bought for the upcoming week in those states over the next two final weeks.

While station managers in the affected states said they were not ruling out the possibility that Mr. McCain would pump money back in before election day, on Nov. 4, the move represents a stark reordering of priorities.

Democrats were predicting Mr. McCain would use the savings to increase his advertising in Pennsylvania and, possibly, Ohio and Florida, all of which have become that much more vital should Mr. McCain have to concede states like Colorado and Wisconsin.

This is probably happening because the RNC is pulling up stakes. They aren't stopping the creation of "hybrid" ads that they can help pay for because, as the McCain team spins it, they want the nominee to control message. He was doing so anyway. The RNC is going to try and hold the line and save the possibility for filibuster in the Senate.

As for why Pennsylvania and Iowa have become the final frontier for McCain, it's simple: they are at least an option:

*** McCain’s path to 270: So many pundits and analysts are wondering why McCain is continuing to push for Iowa and Pennsylvania, despite the daunting poll numbers in those two states. There are two reasons. First, he's run out of options. If you assume Colorado is gone and that Virginia is teetering, he has to find 270 EVs somewhere. Second, Iowa and Pennsylvania are two of the oldest states in the union, as far as the age of their populations. Both states have tons of seniors, and if McCain can turn things around again with seniors, he should see movement first in these two states. Simply put, the campaign doesn't have a lot of options; it's not worth attempting to hold states that get McCain to 250 or 260 electoral votes. The game is getting to 270, and Iowa and Pennsylvania may be his last hope at keeping a path to 270 alive.

That's pretty much it. They're more susceptible, it is likely, to the "experience" message, as well as any last-minute Jeremiah Wright sightings, as Nate Silver notes. But there's a big roadblock to this strategy: reality.

4,060,647
2,917,747
869,707

Those are the current numbers of registered and active Democrats, Republicans and independents in Pennsylvania. Democrats make up more than half the total -- 52 percent, in fact -- well outdistancing the Republican's 33 percent. Suppose that McCain were to split Pennsylvania's independents with Obama and win Republicans 92-8. He would need to carry 23-24 percent of Pennsylvania's Democrats to win the state; George Bush carried 15 percent.

As we reported yesterday, however, negative advertising does not seem to be a good strategy for winning over lapsed Democrats; on the contrary, Democratic solidarity has increased markedly in recent weeks, with Barack Obama now on target to win as much support among his party any Democratic nominee has in any recent election.

There's always the lawyer strategy, to delegitimize the election as somehow cooked up by ACORN, Bill Ayers and The Army of Nubians. And Pennsylvania not voting until Election Day means McCain is not in a huge hole as it stands right now. But I think we can be realistic about this. Hopefully Obama is pouring a lot of resources into the Keystone State, just in case. I know I'll be calling my family and telling them the election hinges on them.