Bystanders In East Asia, Cont'd

I fear that reporting of the terror attacks in Mumbai in this country suffers from a kind of Ptolemaic model of foreign policy, where the United States is considered to be the center of the universe and thus every incident is filtered through that lens. For instance, while many US sources are jumping on reports that Indian intelligence cost lives by failing to open fire on the militants, Israeli intelligence is saying the exact opposite:

"In hostage situations, the first thing the forces are supposed to do is assemble at the scene and begin collecting intelligence," said a former official in the Shin Bet's security unit. "In this case, it appears that the forces showed up at the scene and immediately began exchanging fire with the terrorists instead of first taking control of the area."

And while the conventional wisdom is that the terrorists attacked Western targets in Mumbai and sought out Americans and Britons, almost all of the victims were Indians and the hotels targeted were Indian-owned and served the local elite rather than Westerners. To the extent that Americans were targeted, that would be for the fact that they were visiting the Chabad House, and I wouldn't attribute that to their American-ness.

What we're seeing in the aftermath is a regional battle playing out. While the Pakistanis have offered aid in a joint investigation into the attacks, India has upped the ante and demanded the turnover of twenty terror suspects:

India has demanded that Pakistan hand over 20 men wanted under Indian law to show the country is serious about closer cooperation on security issues in the aftermath of the terrorist attacks here last week.

With tension rising between the two countries, Indian Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee said on Tuesday that the list of wanted men had been handed over in a Monday meeting with Pakistan's ranking diplomat in India.

According to officials in the Indian Foreign Ministry, the list included some of India's most wanted fugitives -- notably Dawood Ibrahim, implicated in 1993 bombings in Mumbai, and Masood Azhar, a Muslim cleric tied to the Kashmiri militant movement. Azhar had been incarcerated in India but was let go in 1999 in exchange for passengers onboard a hijacked Indian airliner.

Those two and the others are thought to be living in Pakistan.

"We have . . . asked for the arrest and hand-over of those persons who are settled in Pakistan and who are fugitive of Indian law," Mukherjee said in New Delhi, the Reuters wire service reported.

This sets up for possible raids into Pakistani territory for purposes of self-defense and counter-terrorism, which would escalate tensions between the two nuclear powers to a very dangerous degree. And considering that the Bush Administration is probably not seen as any kind of honest broker by either side, we are sidelined in this conflict for at least a couple months. And even if we weren't, this isn't about us, fundamentally speaking.

...see also this spectacular analysis by Juan Cole, particularly how the Pakistanis have an obligation to go after Lashkar-e Tayiba militants as the only way to fight terror and solve the difficult Kashmir issue.

If the Pakistani government does not give up this covert terrorist campaign in Kashmir and does not stop coddling the radical vigilantes who go off to fight there, South Asian terrorism will grow as a problem and very possibly provoke the world's first nuclear war (possible death toll: 20 million).

The civilian government that has recently taken over Pakistan is weak. If it puts too much pressure on the military too quickly, it risks another coup and destabilization. But the training camps in Azad Kashmir must be closed.

India, Pakistan, and the Obama administration need to do some serious diplomacy on Kashmir, and try to settle this major global fault line before the 10.0 earthquake finally hits.

Read the whole thing.