Decision Made

There was a fairly substantial portion of today's Obama press conference assigned to Iraq, compared to its near-total drop from the headlines in the months leading up to the election. The President-elect was asked if he still planned to withdraw all US combat forces from the country within 16 months. This was his reply:

“I believe that 16 months is the right time frame,” said Obama, noting that he has ‘consistently” said he will listen to the recommendations of his commanders on the ground.

Obama noted that during the presidential campaign he promised to “remove our combat troops from Iraq in 16 months with the understanding that it might be necessary, likely to be necessary, to maintain a residual force.” Obama then said that the status-of-forces agreement passed by the Iraqi Parliament last week means that “we are on a glide path to reducing our forces in Iraq.”

It kind of stuns me that the press still doesn't seem to understand that the SOFA agreement mandates a full withdrawal from Iraq, and any President who accepts the agreement would necessarily have to leave in 3 years. Obama never gave an end date for the removal of residual forces, but he's now been supplied with it. And if the Iraqi public votes by referendum against the SOFA, that 3-year timeline will be cut in half and the American forces will have to leave in 18 months. This has all been done for Obama, Bush signed it, and now he's resigned to implement it, and he doesn't have a whole lot of wiggle room though he's trying to make some for himself.

Americans are still targeted in Iraq. NPR's Ivan Watson just missed becoming the victim of a car bombing yesterday. There are still plenty of elements unhappy with the outlay of three years in the SOFA who are striking back with suicide attacks. Iraq is not a safe place or a stable one. But the question of American involvement is on the downward side. I'm not saying we're above breaking our word or an international agreement, but I get the impression that Obama isn't at all unhappy being constrained by this agreement. He wants to transfer forces to Afghanistan anyway, and this is the best way to do it.