Double The Quagmire

The chairman of the Joint Chiefs is signaling that we are about to double our military commitment in Afghanistan.

The top U.S. military officer said Saturday that the Pentagon could double the number of American forces in Afghanistan by next summer to 60,000 — the largest estimate of potential reinforcements ever publicly suggested.

Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said that between 20,000 and 30,000 additional U.S. troops could be sent to Afghanistan to bolster the 31,000 already there.

Considering how deadly this year has been for US forces, it seems almost incredible that only 31,000 troops are stationed there. I knew that the per capita casualty rates were bigger in Afghanistan than Iraq this year, but that is much smaller than I thought.

Meanwhile, we're going to try an Afghan awakening by arming militia groups, which makes the mistake that the dynamics in Afghanistan are exactly like Iraq. In Iraq we were arming ex-insurgent Sunnis to fight foreign AQI forces (that's an oversimplification, but generally the case). In Afghanistan it is completely unclear who the enemy is, whether this move will ask tribesmen to fight other tribesmen, etc. I don't think there are the clear fault lines among insurgency groups in Afghanistan the way there was in Sunni areas in Iraq. And remember, the Sunni Awakening was organic, beginning well before we decided to arm or fund anyone.

That's not to say there isn't possible value in this, especially if it splinters the Taliban. But I don't think it will have any impact on strengthening the central government, as the tribes are famously independent in Afghanistan. The central government lacks legitimacy, and the inability to deliver basic services just buttresses that. Arming militias will just create separate fiefdoms, which is how Afghanistan naturally governs itself anyway so that's not all bad.

But doubling our forces in Afghanistan doesn't seem to be that helpful. Increasing the occupier footprint may only anger the local population, and now the strain on the already threatened supply line will be even greater. I don't see the strategy here.