Still Negative-1 Shopping Days Left Until Christmas

On Christmas Day, the Washington Post tried to spin some retail sales numbers, noting with pride that they had risen month-to-month in November for the first time since May. Apparently the idea that the holiday shopping season started in November, and October was a real cratering on retail sales, weren't enough context for them to stop writing the story, not to mention the fact that retailers were offering huge discounts just to get people in the store. A better judge of the retail market is probably year-over-year sales than month-to-month, and on that score, the news is as bad as ever.

U.S. retailers' sales fell as much as 4 percent during the holiday season, as the weak economy and bad weather created one of the worst holiday shopping climates in modern times, according to data released on Thursday by SpendingPulse.

The figures, from the retail data service of MasterCard Advisors, show the 2008 holiday shopping season was the weakest in decades, as U.S. consumers cut spending as they confront a yearlong recession, mounting job losses and tighter credit.

"It's probably one of the most challenging holiday seasons we've ever had in modern times," said Michael McNamara, vice president of Research and Analysis at MasterCard Advisors.

As holiday sales often make up for a lot of retailers' entire yearly profit margins, expect a fair amount of bankruptcies and store closings in Q1 of next year. We are not even close to being on the upswing. The hope is that it can't get too much worse.