As featured on p. 218 of "Bloggers on the Bus," under the name "a MyDD blogger."

Wednesday, April 08, 2009

Jim Bunning In Bigger Trouble Than The '64 Phillies

As a Phillies fan, Jim Bunning will be forever linked in my mind with the team that lost a 6 1/2-game lead with 10 games to play and blew the pennant 45 years ago. As a political junkie, he will be linked in my mind with his claim that his Italian-American opponent in 2004 "looked like one of Saddam Hussein's sons.", Fortunately, the people of Kentucky have noticed that Bunning is a loon, and they are not inclined to send him back to Washington as their representative in 2010.

Wow. Look at these Public Policy Polling numbers of the Kentucky Senate race. Senator Jim Bunning has just tanked in both approval and head-to-head match-ups. First, his "approval":

"Only 28% of Kentucky voters approve of Jim Bunning's job performance, our newest survey finds. 18% have no opinion and 54% say they disapprove of his work. That's the highest level of disapproval for any of the 18 Senators across the country PPP has gauged approval for since last summer. The previous worst before this Kentucky survey was 40% for Blanche Lincoln in Arkansas."

As for the head-to-head match-ups, generally an incumbent is considered endangered if he can't get above 50%. What's it called when an incumbent can't get above 40?

Jim Bunning 33
Ben Chandler 47

Jim Bunning 33
Jack Conway 42

Jim Bunning 34
Crit Luallen 42

Jim Bunning 36
Dan Mongiardo 43

Mongiardo, by the way, is the olive-skinned Lt. Governor of Kentucky who Bunning called an Ay-rab five years ago. And he's definitely running again. If Ben Chandler decides to run, I don't think he'd be beaten.

Very quietly, 2010 is looking as good for Democrats in the Senate as 2008. Obviously the political winds could shift, but at least three seats (KY, PA and NH) look very good for Democratic pick-ups, while Missouri, Florida and Ohio will be very contested Republican-held open seats. Roy Cooper can probably win over Richard Burr in North Carolina as well. And there aren't that many Democratic seats, save maybe Chris Dodd in Connecticut, that are threatened. We could see as high as 65 Democratic Senators by 2011.

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