ACES High

The Waxman-Markey American Clean Energy and Security Act narrowly passed today by a vote of 219-212. Roll call here. Eight Republicans voted for it, 44 Democrats voted against.

Anyone who understands the dynamic of the House being to the left of the Senate knows that this bill, already compromised beyond belief, has little chance of being strengthened in the upper chamber, regardless of what enviro groups are saying. To wit:

But Pelosi and Waxman’s work is far from over. The Waxman-Markey bill faces an uncertain future in the Senate.

Despite a push from Environment and Public Works Committee Chairwoman Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.) and Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) to follow the House’s lead, most of the Senate’s climate change work has thus far been conducted by Energy and Natural Resources Chairman Jeff Bingaman (D-N.M.).

Bingaman’s bill lacks a cap-and-trade provision, focuses more on increased domestic production, and generally goes in a wholly different direction than the Waxman-Markey bill.

So we'll probably have to rely on that conference committee again. I'm not seeing that likely to work, given these thin numbers in the House.

I think the chances of final passage on something like this bill are still only 30-70. The Senate will be a rough, rough road.

...more at the Speaker's blog.