I Don't See That Curve Bending
We're still in uncharted economic territory:
Employers cut a larger-than-expected 467,000 jobs in June, driving the unemployment rate up to a 26-year high of 9.5 percent, suggesting that the economy's road to recovery will be bumpy.
The Labor Department report, released Thursday, showed that even as the recession flashes signs of easing, companies likely will want to keep a lid on costs and be wary of hiring until they feel certain the economy is on solid ground.
June's payroll reductions were deeper than the 363,000 that economists expected and average weekly earnings dropped to the lowest level in nearly a year.
However, the rise in the unemployment rate from 9.4 percent in May wasn't as sharp as the expected 9.6 percent. Still, many economists predict the jobless rate will hit 10 percent this year, and keep rising into next year, before falling back.
All told, 14.7 million people were unemployed in June.
Here's the latest chart showing job losses, from Calculated Risk:
We have two problems threatening economic recovery: joblessness and foreclosures. The stimulus is supposed to at least mitigate the former, and the Obama Administration is expanding their program to mitigate the latter, including homeowners that owe up to 125% of the value of their homes on their mortgages into their modification plans.
Neither look to be sufficient for the scale of the problem. It's almost unfair what the President has had to deal with since coming into office, but I fear we're in something of a death spiral.