DE-Sen: Castle v. Biden

For a small state, that's going to be a big matchup. Mike Castle is considered a moderate and hasn't lost a race in Delaware since 1966. Beau Biden is the son of the Vice President, who also never lost a race in Delaware, and he's the Attorney General in his own right.

Rep. Mike Castle (R-Del.) will be running for Vice President Joe Biden’s old Senate seat in Delaware, according to two GOP sources connected to the congressman, instantly giving Republicans the opportunity to flip a traditionally-Democratic seat in their column [...]

But Attorney General Beau Biden, just back from military service in Iraq, is considering running for the seat and would be a formidable opponent.

A recently-released Rasmussen poll conducted this month showed Castle leading Biden by five points, 47 to 42 percent.

That's instantly a toss-up seat. Bad news for Democrats, although it's mitigated slightly by the fact that Castle's House seat probably flips now, as he was pretty much the only man in Delaware who could keep it.

Democrats had better do something with their 60-seat Senate majority in the next year, because they are highly unlikely to keep it or grow it.

...Jack Conway looks pretty good in Kentucky, but needless to say the trade of Ted Kaufman for a Southern Democrat is a net negative for a progressive agenda.

...Open Left sees a 3-5 seat pickup for Republicans right now, although it is early and they add some caveats.

...Interesting theory from a pollster suggesting that Castle is only ahead due to name recognition. Also, with a likely anti-incumbency mood out there, will Castle really be able to avoid charges that he's part of the problem in Washington?