What Do You Know About That

The most unyieldingly racist member of Israel's right-wing government is also facing a potential indictment:

Israeli police Sunday recommended that the state indict Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman on charges of bribery, fraud, money laundering, witness harassment and obstruction of justice.

A spokesman for the Justice Ministry said the file now moves to the state prosecutor's office and then to attorney General Menachem Mazuz who must approve the recommendation before Lieberman is formally indicted. That process could take weeks or even months. If the foreign minister is indicted he will have to resign, according to Israeli law.

Lieberman released a combative statement after the police announcement.

"For 13 years the police have conducted a campaign of persecution against me," he said. "As much as my political strength and the strength of (my party) Yisrael Beitenu rise, the campaign of persecution also intensifies."

He said he was innocent of all charges and called the investigation "judicial torture."

I didn't see the persecution complex coming.

Benjamin Netanyahu's government will still probably orient themselves against peace and toward kicking Palestinians out of their homes in East Jerusalem and building settlements on occupied land, as they have been doing, most recently today. But getting a racist like Lieberman out of government would have an undeniably positive effect.

Space On The Left For Two-State Solutions

It was clear when Bibi Netanyahu made his speech with its alleged concession to a Palestinian state that he was not fully endorsing anything approaching a framework for that state. What sovereign entity agrees to unilaterally disarm and not defend its borders? Michael Oren, Israel's Ambassador to the US, basically confirmed this the other day:

In an interview with Reuters yesterday, Israel's Ambassador to the United States, Michael Oren said: "When the prime minister and the government uses the word 'state' now, it has to attach a number of caveats to it, so it'll be understood that what we're talking about here is not a state in the classical sense, as is widely understood, but a state that will have some -- some -- substantive restrictions on its powers."

That's just not going to be good enough, or at least it shouldn't be for policymakers in this country. Harold Meyerson points out that Americans, in particular American Jews, understand that a two state solution, and only a two state solution, can bring about peace in the region and ensure the security of everyone, including the Israelis.

What underpins the resolve of both the administration and Congress to push the Israelis, no less than the Palestinians, toward a settlement is the clear approval this approach commands among American Jews. A poll taken in March for J Street, an organization of American Jews that favors a territorial accord, showed 72 percent support among Jewish Americans for U.S. pressure on Israel and its Arab neighbors to reach an accord, and, remarkably, 57 percent support for U.S. pressure just on Israel. The poll also found 60 percent opposition to the expansion of settlements.

These numbers reflect changes in American Jewish life and thought that have been building for decades. At a broad level, the intense identification of American Jews with Israel has been waning for many years. More narrowly, the past couple of decades have brought the rise of American Jewish groups that try to pressure the U.S. government to push for a two-state solution -- a clear counterweight to more established organizations such as AIPAC that generally try to pressure the U.S. government to do whatever the Israeli government would like it to do. The J Street PAC, an organization that's just three years old, raises funds for members of Congress who back policies leading to a two-state solution, much as the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) encourages its backers to donate to candidates who toe a more hawkish line.

I wouldn't go so far to say that AIPAC has been completely sidelined, but clearly Jewish groups have created space on the left to allow Obama to take a hard line on the settlements issue. It's good that Hillary Clinton refused to yield to racist Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman on this count.

Obviously, Netanyahu isn't being realistic or even serious about a Palestinian state. But for the first time in a while, the forces of peace are dictating strategy in the White House, at least as it concerns the Middle East.

A Syria Deal?

What I think is more interesting in Seymour Hersh's latest than the predictable Cheney comments about President Obama ("he's pro-Palestinian," etc.), is this idea that Israel will sit down and hammer out a peace agreement with Syria, returning them the Golan Heights:

A few days after the Israeli ceasefire in Gaza, (Syrian President) Assad said in an e-mail to me that although Israel was “doing everything possible to undermine the prospects for peace,” he was still very interested in closing the deal. “We have to wait a little while to see how things will evolve and how the situation will change,” Assad said. “We still believe that we need to conclude a serious dialogue to lead us to peace.”

American and foreign government officials, intelligence officers, diplomats, and politicians said in interviews that renewed Israeli-Syrian negotiations over the Golan Heights are now highly likely, despite Gaza and the elections in Israel in February, which left the Likud Party leader, Benjamin Netanyahu, at the head of a coalition that includes both the far right and Labor. Those talks would depend largely on America’s willingness to act as the mediator, a role that could offer Barack Obama his first—and perhaps best—chance for engagement in the Middle East peace process.

A senior Syrian official explained that Israel’s failure to unseat Hamas from power in Gaza, despite the scale of the war, gave Assad enough political room to continue the negotiations without losing credibility in the Arab world. Assad also has the support of Arab leaders who are invested in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani,* the ruler of Qatar, said last month when I saw him in Doha that Assad must take any reasonable steps he can to keep the talks going. “Syria is eager to engage with the West,” he said, “an eagerness that was never perceived by the Bush White House. Anything is possible, as long as peace is being pursued.”

Obviously, the racist Israeli Foreign Minister, who said today that concessions invite war, may prove an impediment. But I'm guessing that Obama figures he could ring up a quick victory in the Middle East peace process by moving this along. In addition, it moves Syria a little more out of Iran's orbit, which could either bring Iran along into negotiations or isolate them. And it bolsters the possibility of a broader Middle East peace process.

The President said today that he will engage in "frank discussions" with the Israeli government in moving them to the bargaining table on a two-state solution. And with Netanyahu already unfavorable on his first day as Israeli Prime Minister, he could probably use something like a Syrian deal as well. I'm glad the US is operating with what appears to be a firm hand in the region, and they shouldn't kid themselves about the stakes:

Israelis, in other words, are not on the whole nearly this nutty. Which I think makes the case that it’s important for Western governments, most of all the United States of America, to not pretend that this Israeli government is anything other than what it is. A government headed by a Prime Minister who wants to bomb Iran, who thinks he can dictate regional strategy to the President of the United States, and who opposes the creation of an independent Palestinian state backed up by a main coalition partner who rejects the concept of land-of-peace and the basic precepts of liberal democracy is just not a government you can work with as an ally. People keep saying that Netanyahu is more pragmatic than his rhetoric but if so he needs to demonstrate that pragmatism fast, or else the world will just have to hope his coalition collapse sooner rather than later.

Now, this other Hersh idea that Cheney has stay-behinds inside the US Government, I'd definitely like to hear more about that. But the Cheney stuff in this particular article are a sidelight.

Israel: Labor Party Votes Itself Out Of Existence

Benjamin Netanyahu's biggest fear was a coalition government consisting entirely of the far-right, without the fig leaf of unity. Ehud Barak's biggest fear, apparently, was irrelevancy. The two got together.

Israel's Labor Party voted Tuesday to join the incoming government of Benjamin Netanyahu, lending a moderate voice to a coalition dominated by hard liners and easing concerns of a head-on confrontation with Washington over Mideast peacemaking.

Chants of "Disgrace! Disgrace!" echoed through the convention hall after Defense Minister Ehud Barak pushed through the proposal despite angry opposition from party activists who feared Labor would give only a superficial gloss to a government little interested in moving toward peace.

Labor's move gives Netanyahu's coalition a majority of 66 in the 120-seat parliament.

Those numbers above assume that every member of the Labor Party will agree to joining the coalition government. I find that highly unlikely, and what will probably happen is that Labor will fracture, as they did on the ultimate vote to join the government (it was a 680-507 vote). So the Israeli "left," which didn't really exist to begin with, has now a stake through its heart thanks to Mr. Barak's vanity, and those still committed to some manner of principle can now rebuild. So maybe in the end, this is positive. But in the near term, this is the activities to which Barak has given consent, the racist worldview of his new colleague Avigdor Lieberman:

On Tuesday, Jewish extremists marched through the northern Israeli-Arab town of Umm el-Fahm, demanding residents show loyalty to Israel and setting off stone-throwing protests by Arab youths that police dispersed with stun grenades and tear gas. No serious injuries were reported, but residents denounced the march on one of Israel's largest Arab communities.

I may be some dirty hippie American Jew, but my views seem pretty much in line with Amir Oren of Haaretz:

Barak is distorting the essence in presenting his fervor to join forces with Netanyahu as the voters' will. In that way he can present any combination that wins a majority in the Knesset.

He could even claim that a government headed by Ahmed Tibi and supported by Avigdor Lieberman, Barak and Shas represented the public's choice.

Barak and Netanyahu deserve each other. Barak is afraid of being left out. Netanyahu is scared to be left inside, alone. But don't worry: The day will come when they too become ridiculous myths, just like Olmert.

Anybody who thinks Barak will be some kind of counterweight in the Israeli government deludes themselves willingly. He is a cipher, and destroying the pathetic Labor Party has been his one decent act, unintentional though it may have been.

Worst. Foreign Minister. Ever.

Bibi Netanyahu was forced by the other mainstream parties in Israel to build a political coalition in line with his ideological soulmates on the far right, and seeing no other recourse he went ahead and made racist ultra-nationalist Avigdor Lieberman the Foreign Minister, while still holding out hope that he can nullify that.

Prime Minister-designate Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud Party has initialed a coalition agreement with an ultra-nationalist faction that brings its leader significantly closer to becoming foreign minister, a Likud party spokeswoman said Monday.

Avigdor Lieberman, who heads the right-wing Yisrael Beitenu party, has drawn accusations of racism for a plan that would require Arab citizens to sign loyalty oaths or lose their citizenship.

Although that plan is not likely to be implemented, his designation as foreign minister could harm Israel's international ties.

I would change "could" to "will." Europe will not be a partner with Lieberman, especially if the two-state solution is withdrawn (and I don't see how it could be furthered under that governing coalition). The result would be very painful for the people of Israel. Netanyahu knows this, and so he's desperately trying to leave the door open for a return by Tzipi Livni:

Lieberman's appointment to the post is not yet finalized, however. Likud spokeswoman Dina Libster said the coalition agreement included a provision that both sides were prepared to accept more centrist partners, such as the Kadima Party of the current foreign minister, Tzipi Livni.

That wording left a door open for Livni to retain her current job if she were to join such an alliance.

Which she won't, because she has calculated that her path to power runs right through a Netanyahu failure with a far-right coalition, where she can be the sensible alternative. Of course, there will be two or three years lost in the process, which nobody in Israel or Palestine can afford.

Caught Between Barak And A Hard Place

After Bibi Netanyahu was given the opportunity to form a government there was an assumption that this would be accomplished in short order. But so far, Labor has turned down Netanyahu's offer to join a unity coalition, and Kadima has made no agreements to join either. They're basically calling Bibi's bluff and forcing him to honor the promises of his far-right coalition partners:

Kadima narrowly beat Likud in the elections, making it the largest party in Parliament by one seat, but Likud commands a larger bloc, which includes religious and right-wing parties. Mr. Netanyahu could quickly form a government with these partners but would prefer a broader, less hawkish coalition.

His success will depend on how committed he is to the religious and rightist parties that endorsed him to become prime minister, and what, if anything, he has promised them. Both Ms. Livni, now the foreign minister, and Mr. Barak, the defense minister, have said they will head into opposition before legitimizing a government that includes elements of the far right.

Seems to me that Netanyahu is in a spot. If he rejects his far-right partners and secures Kadima's support, he will have sold out his base. If he creates that far-right government that clearly is his ideological preference, he risks alienating large swaths of the country and the Obama Administration. Thus we have him mouthing the language of peace while rejecting any moves toward it.

Israel's hard-line prime minister-designate, Binyamin Netanyahu, promised Sunday to work with the United States to promote peace in the region as he sought to forge a moderate government with his chief rival -- but did not reach a deal.

Netanyahu's crucial meeting with the centrist Tzipi Livni was intended to persuade her to ally with him in forming a new government and avoid an unwelcome coalition with ultra-nationalists to his right.

But after their meeting, Livni said the two remained at odds regarding talks with the Palestinians.

"We didn't reach any agreement. There are deep disagreements on this issue," she said. "This evening did not progress us on the core issues in a way that we can talk about a joint path."

I give Netanyahu six months, provided he can actually get a government assembled at all. He's just not that good a politician and he proved that in the 1990s. And his global partners are dwindling, especially with his retrograde stance on settlement expansion.

In related news, Joe Lieberman met with his namesake in Israel, Avigdor Lieberman, and had nothing but kind words for him. This is the guy who MARTIN PERETZ calls an unrequited racist. Joe Lieberman just gets classier every day...

The End Of The Two-State Solution?

The Israeli elections turned out pretty much the way it looked early on. Tzipi Livni earned a narrow victory, but because there are 64 votes in the Knesset on the far right, Benjamin Netanyahu and Likud have a better chance of forming a government. Even if Livni can woo one of the far-right parties, they would represent a check on any move toward peace with Palestine, since they could react by collapsing the government. The result is that Avigdor Lieberman, who even Marty Peretz calls a neo-fascist and who thinks Arabs in Israel should offer loyalty oaths to the state, is arguably the most powerful figure in Israeli politics, and the two-state solution looks dead.

With Lieberman emerging as kingmaker in the new government, logically speaking, there are only three other plausible future relationships of Israel and the Palestinians:

1. Apartheid, with Israeli citizens dominating stateless Palestinians and controlling their borders, land, water and air. Apartheid would be accelerated under Lieberman's baleful influence. Over time, this outcome would break down, since it will be unacceptable to the rest of the world over the coming decades).

2. Expulsion. The Israelis could try to violently expel the Palestinians (and possibly Israeli-Palestinians as well), creating a massive new wave of refugees in Jordan or Egypt's Sinai. (This option would almost certainly end the peace treaties with Egypt and Jordan and might well push the Arab states into the arms of Iran, creating a powerful anti-Israel military coalition and a huge set of threats to the United States.)

3. One State. The Israelis could be forced over time, by economic and technological boycotts, to grant citizenship to the Palestinians of the occupied territories.

Since President Obama sent out George Mitchell to attempt to kickstart the peace process and get back on track to a two-state solution, both have now had the rug pulled out from under tham by an Israeli public moving to the far right.

The war in Gaza raised the profile and power of extremists on BOTH sides. Hamas is now more popular and Fatah viewed with more skepticism among the Palestinians, and the hardliners within Gaza have been strengthened.

If the Israelis offer Palestinians citizenship in a single state, they will quickly be overcome by demographics and lose the Jewish state. And if they try to deny citizenship to Palestinian refugees, they will be running a modern apartheid state and gradually lose all credibility. And yet they are determined to go on this suicide mission. Perhaps America would remain willingly blind to this injustice for a time, as Matt Yglesias suggests, but the rest of the world wouldn't, and that would increase global tensions, and at some point America will have to come to a reckoning if Israel refuses to do so.

This is why the two-state solution has such support in both parties, because then we wouldn't have to choose. But as Israel drifts right, that choice will have to be made eventually.

Election 2009!

No, not here, you can put your Sarah Palin dolls back. Actually, I'm talking about Israel, which holds elections next week amid uncertainty following the war in Gaza. There's been lots of mudslinging and no substance in the campaigns, but the Gaza assault obviously looms as the biggest issue. When Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni and Defense Minister Ehud Barak launched the attacks it was cynically seen as a bid to raise their hopes for the election for their respective parties, Kadima and Labor. Predictably, the war only strengthened Hamas inside Palestine, with Fatah completely discredited by its people for tacit collusion with the Israelis. In addition, the war appears to have strengthened far-right extremist Avigdor Lieberman - no relation to Joe - of the Yisrael Beitenu (Israel Our Home) Party, kind of the Israeli Pat Buchanan, who is running on loyalty oaths:

Lieberman is campaigning on the slogan "Without loyalty, there is no citizenship," promising a new bill requiring all Palestinians with Israeli passports to swear loyalty to the Jewish state or lose their citizenship. He advocates carving out part of the Galilee that is home to Arab Israeli villages and handing it over to Palestinian control.

His critics among the Israeli left and in the country's 20% Arab minority are widespread. "Here we have a racist immigrant who is fighting against the residents of the land, the natives," said Ahmad Tibi, an Arab Israeli MP. Yossi Sarid, a former leftwing MP, said: "What's the difference between his party and all the fascist parties in Europe? It's the same message, the same technique, taking advantage of the same fears."

But among a growing number of Israelis his policies resonate. Polls today suggested he might win as many as 19 seats in the 120-seat Knesset, putting him ahead even of the Labour party.

Paradoxically, this appears to be helping Livni and the Kadima Party, as the batshit right Lieberman is taking votes from the merely far right Benjamin Netanyahu and the Likud Party. This could mean that Kadima would be able to pick the governing coalition and not Likud, which would increase the prospects of peace exponentially, although with Fatah basically discredited and far-right populist sentiment on the rise, those prospects look bleak.

All of which re-emphasizes the point that the Gaza war was truly dumb, and distressing to anyone who wishes for peace. After 1,300 dead and thousands of buildings destroyed, extremists are taking over both sides of the divide. Hamas is so radicalized that they are confiscating UN relief supplies, and Israel is taking seriously the candidate calling for loyalty oaths, which is ironic as all get out. Time is running out for a peace deal, and that's probably true no matter who is elected. George Mitchell and Barack Obama (who offered $20 million in Gaza relief this week) have their work cut out for them.