9 Soldiers Dead in 2 Days

You would think that, considering that Baghdad's streets are newly paved with gold and everything's back to normal and candies are handed out at every market and the air is laden with magic pixie dust, there wouldn't be any need for a new major offensive in Iraq. And yet, Phantom Phoenix started yesterday in Diyala province. And already, it's claimed 9 lives.

Nine American soldiers were killed in the first two days of a new offensive to root out al-Qaida in Iraq fighters holed up in districts north of the capital, the U.S. military reported Wednesday.

The losses came as many militants fled U.S. and Iraqi forces massing in Diyala, a province of palm and citrus groves that has defied the trend toward lower violence. The campaign's scope is nationwide but is mainly focused on gaining control of Diyala and its most important city, Baqouba, which al-Qaida has declared the capital of its self-styled Islamic caliphate.

The fact that six of these troops were killed in a booby-trapped house suggests that the insurgents knew they were coming. And indeed:

All indications are that al-Qaida fighters retreated north from Diyala, presumably to Salahuddin, before the offensive began Tuesday, the top U.S. commander in northern Iraq, Maj. Gen. Mark P. Hertling, told reporters in Baghdad.

"Operational security in Iraq is a problem," he said, noting that the Iraqi army uses unsecured cell phones and radios. "I'm sure there is active leaking of communication."

One more death in Iraq is needless. The country is not on a path to political or even security sustainability because of the occupation. Even the Pentagon admits that factional reconciliation through the political progress is the only way to a solution, and that the chances of that are 50-50 at best. Meanwhile, the supposedly fixed security situation isn't all that fixed:

In a separate attack, police said on Tuesday that gunmen kidnapped eight members of a newly-formed U.S.-backed Shiite armed group in northern Baghdad's Shaab neighborhood, one of the capital's most dangerous areas and a center for outlawed Shiite fighters.

The men were manning a checkpoint when they were kidnapped Monday night, a police officer said on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to release information. Last Sunday, the head of the group, Sheik Ismaiel Abbas, was shot to death in Shaab.

Elsewhere in the capital Tuesday, the head of the municipality of Baghdad's primarily Sunni neighborhood of Yarmouk was killed when a bomb attached to his car exploded, a police officer said on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to release information.

Add to that the fact that Diyala is actually more deadly now, post-surge, than it was in June.

I keep writing about this in the dim hope that somebody will recognize the pickle we've managed to get ourselves into. There have been bad options and worse options in Iraq for the last 3 years. The bad options have grown worse and the worse options have grown unthinkable. The less people that have to die in that exchange, the better. When this occupation ends it will be pinned on the Democrats. But the responsibility lies with George Bush every step of the way.

Admit the Progress!

Again, I post these just to remind people that security in a war zone is transitory; only political settlements will bring stability.

A female suicide bomber wearing a vest packed with explosives killed 15 people in a town northeast of Baghdad on Friday, Iraqi police said.

Another 24 people were also wounded in the blast in the town of Muqdadiya, 55 miles northeast of Baghdad, in volatile Diyala province.

The idea that there's still a "volatile province" must come as news to those who only consume Republican spin, and think that Iraq has nothing but tennis and masquerade balls by now.

Making Good Progress

Steve Benen catches Tim Russert figuring out that John McCain's been telling him that we've ben making progress in Iraq for four solid years. A little slow on the uptake, that guy, but he gets it.



(Fig. 4-1. Chart of progress in Iraq, provided by McCain for President)

Anyway, let's take a look at the latest progress in this endlessly forward-moving country, shall we?

5 troops were killed and 3 are still missing in an attack in the "Triangle of Death" south of Baghdad. Actually, let's start with the fact that the country has a "triangle of death." This attack was another example of the fact that, while the "surge" focuses on Baghdad, the areas just outside the capital are becoming more violent as insurgents fan out there. In Diyala province, one such area, the commanding general has had enough:

The commander of U.S. forces in northern Iraq said Friday that he did not have enough troops to deal with the escalating violence in Iraq's Diyala province, an unusually frank assertion for a top officer and a sign that American military officials might be starting to offer more candid and blunt assessments of the war.

Army Maj. Gen. Benjamin R. "Randy" Mixon also said that the Iraqi government had failed to help the situation in the restive province and that it has been a hindrance at times by failing to support local army and police forces. Diyala borders Baghdad on the east, and violence in the province has grown as U.S. troop levels have been bolstered in the capital.

In addition, the one "success story" of the surge, stopping violence in the capital, has begun to fall apart:

Mixon's call for help coincides with a rise in the number of sectarian death squad killings in Baghdad. U.S. officials had heralded an earlier decline in such deaths as a sign of the success of the security clampdown in the capital that began Feb. 13.

Iraq's Interior Ministry said 234 people — men whose bodies were found throughout the capital — died at the hands of death squads in the first 11 days of May, compared with 137 in the same period of April. The tally so far for May is more than half the total for all of April, when 440 bodies were found. That was a decline from previous months.

The other success story, that Sunnis have begun to fight back against Al Qaeda fighters in Al Anbar, is incoherent when coupled with the claim that "if we leave Iraq, it will become a haven for terrorists." Clearly, the Sunnis in Al Anbar are standing up and won't allow a handful of foreign fighters to take over their country. Sounds to me like if we STAY, giving insurgents a target, we enable a haven for terrorists.

It's gotten so desperate that the US will finally break down and talk to Iran announcing this just days after Dick Cheney threatened the Islamic Republic on the deck of a naval carrier.

TEHRAN, Iran - The U.S. and Iran said Sunday they will hold upcoming talks in Baghdad about improving Iraq's security — a historic political turnabout for the two countries with the most influence over Iraq's future [...]

"The purpose is to try to make sure that the Iranians play a productive role in Iraq," said Gordon Johndroe, the White House's National Security Council spokesman.

Cheney's spokeswoman, Lea Anne McBride, also confirmed the upcoming talks, saying the vice president supports the move as long as they focus solely on Iraq.

Iran agreed to the talks "after consultation with Iraqi officials, in order to lessen the pain of the Iraqi people, support the Iraqi government and establish security and peace in Iraq," the state-run news agency, IRNA, quoted Foreign Ministry spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini as saying.

I don't think anyone expects much good to come out of those talks if they are beginning in such bad faith. The truth is that we need negotiation but not with these negotiators. It's another indicator that even the progress in Iraq isn't particularly progressive.

UPDATE: Oh yeah, the Iraqi government (you know, the Parliament that voted for US troops to leave Iraq) isn't too interested in passing an oil law, either, though the more I look at that I'm compelled to think that it's good news.