Maneuvering

The return of a unified reform movement to the Republic of Iran would be encouraging news for those who would like the hardliners to lose their grip on total control of the state. The fact that Mohammed Khatami is putting the movement ahead of hiimself is a very good sign.

Former Iranian President Mohammad Khatami has officially announced his withdrawal from the country's presidential election in June.

In a statement, he said he would pull out in order not to split the reformist vote. Two other pro-reform candidates are also in the running.

Mr Khatami was president of Iran from 1997-2005 and was succeeded by Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, a hard-line conservative.

The article analyzes this as a boost for Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, but I don't think so. Khatami would rather rally reformers behind a single candidate than split the vote. Hopefully another pro-reform candidate will drop out as well, leaving one, most likely former Prime Minister Mir Hossein Mousavi, to challenge the hardliners. Movements falter when factionalism turns a politics of ideology and policy into a politics of personality. Reformers in Iran need one candidate to rally behind at this point.

Iran: Everybody's Favorite Whipping Boy

Um, this is a misleading story. Iran has enough uranium to make a bomb, but it takes until the seventh paragraph to report that "the material would have to undergo further enrichment if it was to be used as fuel for a bomb and that atomic inspectors had found no signs that Iran was making such preparations." In fact, it's even more remote than the article makes out.

Iran cannot construct nuclear bombs with uranium enriched only to less than 4%. It needs to be enriched to something like 90% to make a bomb. Iran is not known even to have that capability, and no it cannot be done in 2 months (try a decade), assuming they were trying to do it, which our $40 bn. a year intelligence agencies say they are not. So all the silly articles on Friday about how iran now has enough enriched uranium to make a bomb are just illiterate. Moreover, the report in question actually says that Iran is slowing its enrichment activities.

This is propaganda with a right-wing frame, and I fear the Administration is promoting it. And this has consequences inside Iran. That hardliners are blocking websites promoting reformer Mohammed Khatami is to be expected, but they are clearly using the Manichean "us against the world" nature of current international relations to provide cover for this suppressing of dissent. It's stupid policy to keep hyping these reports and distorting their findings. The Obama team can go a long way to ending this crap by refusing to accept the premises. So far they haven't.

Ahmadinejad 2.0?

Barack Obama made some overtures to Iran in his Monday night press conference, and remarkably, the President of Iran returned the favor.

The Iranian president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, opened the door today to the prospect of talks with the US, less than 24 hours after Barack Obama said face-to-face discussions could take place within months.

"The new US administration has announced that they want to produce change and pursue the course of dialogue. It is quite clear that real change must be fundamental and not tactical. It is clear the Iranian nation welcomes real changes," Ahmadinejad told a rally in Tehran's Freedom Square during celebrations marking the 30th anniversary of the Iranian revolution.

"The Iranian nation is ready to hold talks, but talks in a fair atmosphere with mutual respect."

He said terrorism, the elimination of nuclear weapons, restructuring the UN security council and the fight against drug trafficking could be the subjects of discussion.

The Iranian leader said the world was "entering an era of dialogue and intellect" because military power had been unsuccessful, and "does not want to see the dark age of Bush repeated".

It's hard to divorce these remarks from the plain facts of political self-interest. Ahmadinejad isn't even the person who would agree to negotiations with the United States; the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei would have that power. It's important to remember that this is an election year in Iran, and Ahmadinejad swept into power as a hardliner but also an economic reformer. Like most countries, Iran is reeling from an economic downturn (inflation is approaching 30% after a series of spending policies in rural areas), and the promise of talks with the West mirrors the promise of foreign aid that can jump-start their economy. This was made more vital for Ahmadinejad when former President Mohammad Khatami entered the race.

Former President Mohammad Khatami, who pushed for detente with the West when in office from 1997 to 2005, said on Sunday he would run in Iran's June presidential election.

The announcement sets up a choice for voters between Khatami and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, whose first four-year term have witnessed a sharp deterioration in ties with the West as tensions over Iran's nuclear work have mounted.

"Here I am announcing that I will seriously take part as a candidate for the election," Khatami told a meeting of pro- reform politicians.

Though a former President, Khatami is seen by reformers as the change candidate, with Juan Cole calling him Iran's Obama. And the curtailing of the Iranian nuclear program happened on Khatami's watch. If the US sought a partner for peace, they could do much worse than having Khatami in the Presidency, though of course Khamenei holds the final decision.

It would be a supreme irony if the man built up by the right as a genocidal dictator bent on global destruction is beaten in his bid for a second term and never heard from again. Guess the neocons would have to find a new villain, then.