Iran Drumbeat Watch

I've been saying for a while that Bush has three goals left - immunity for illegal spying (almost set), a status of forces agreement for a permanent presence in Iraq (only the Iraqis are working to block that) and bombing Iran. The third scenario got a little bit more likely this week, as reports of Israel maneuvering for a proxy attack came to light:

WASHINGTON — Israel carried out a major military exercise earlier this month that American officials say appeared to be a rehearsal for a potential bombing attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

Several American officials said the Israeli exercise appeared to be an effort to develop the military’s capacity to carry out long-range strikes and to demonstrate the seriousness with which Israel views Iran’s nuclear program.

More than 100 Israeli F-16 and F-15 fighters participated in the maneuvers, which were carried out over the eastern Mediterranean and over Greece during the first week of June, American officials said.

We know WHY American officials said that, right? Because they desire a strike on Iranian facilities and want the Iranians to know they're in the crossfire.

Then there's this "if weak sauce Obama gets elected, Bush will attack, but if McCain gets elected Bush will let him do it" logic that actually endorses putting Iran policy on hold for the next eight months.

I certainly think this is worrisome, enough so that Mohammed El Baradei has vowed to quit the IAEA should a strike take place, explicitly saying that "A military strike, in my opinion, would be worse than anything possible. It would turn the region into a fireball." Listen to him. The neocons have been wrong about everything, and they're wrong about this too. A fireball of a region makes it easier for contractors and oil services companies to profit. They want to dominate the Middle East forever.

World Report

Because why not?

• So Bin Laden's going to preview the new Al Qaeda fall season with a taped message. Judging from the photo, he dyes his beard; is that part of the mores of the traditional Wahhabist caliphate? Aside from wetting the pants of a few insaneosphere residents, I'm pretty sure nothing he has to say makes a lick of difference. I'm sure the media will somehow turn this into a "win for the GOP," that the most wanted man in the world who killed 3,000 Americans on a Republican Administration's watch is still alive 6 years later. Just remember: EVERYTHING is good for the GOP. That's why they're doing so well these days!

• I remember hearing at some point a few months back a bit of media chatter that "Israel and Syria are going to war this summer because... just because." Didn't think much about it until this story today that Syria claims to have repelled Israeli warplanes that actually dropped munitions. Israel won't comment. Did they violate Syrian airspace to get to Syria, or to get a couple countries over to Tehran?

• Three Marine officers were censured for their failure to investigate the massacre of 24 civilians in Haditha in 2005. Their military careers are effectively over. Murder charges in this case have been dropped against two of the men mainly because of the byzantine military justice system and code of conduct IMO.

• Here's a nice story: airstrikes in Baghdad killed 14 civilians while they were sleeping. Read to me in the counterinsurgency manual where a key component is a massive bombing campaign. This is the great untold story of this escalation; we're dropping a tremendous amount of ordnance over there. You cannot win hearts and minds by substituting bombs for boots on the ground. We don't have enough troops for the mission (not that the mission is winnable), so we're trying to compensate with airstrikes. It just stirs up more anger.

• German authorities are looking for a dozen more suspects in the foiled terror plot against various facilities. Good for diligent police work. Meanwhile the US Embassy in Nigeria is under alert of attack. The world is still dangerous, made more so by our debacle in Iraq and our inattention to extremism around the world.

• Fred Hiatt is a complete idiot, trying to save his own reputation by attacking the good name of Mohammed El Baradei, who happened to be right about Iraq and is right about Iran. It's those who have been completely wrong who are trying to deflect from their own mistakes by beating the drums for yet another war.

• We all hope for some better news from Iraq, we just don't see a lot to be that pleased about. But this is encouraging, and it's typical that it had nothing to do with the Americans. Top Parliament leaders met in Finland with representatives from South Africa and Northern Ireland, to discuss the best practices for real reconciliation. It suggests that this isn't about the Iraqis "getting their act together," it's about removing the crush of the American presence so that the Iraqis can figure this out for themselves. I'm mindful that this doesn't mean the Shiites and Sunnis will immediately become best of friends; the work done in Northern Ireland took decades. But they did take the steps toward a resolution here, even if they are baby steps. Note that South Africa and Northern Ireland are not occupied nations. And maybe we don't need to return power to CIA-and-lobbyist-backed thug who will destroy democracy in order to save it.

• 50 killed in campaigning for Guatemala's national election, and it's not until this weekend. Political rivals are shooting each other and a lot of candidates are backed by drug lords. This is pretty normal practice in a country with one of the highest murder rates in the world. As long as our goal is to spread freedom and democracy, could we be bothered to give a hand here?

• Riverbend has left Baghdad. She was an honest voice among the madness, and she will be missed, but she is certainly safer in Syria.

• And finally, a sketch comedy group in Australia managed to get through two security checkpoints and pretty darn close to George W. Bush with a guy dressed up as Osama bin Laden.

The group staged a faux motorcade, pretending to be the delegation of Canada with one of the comedians dressed as bin Laden, and made it past two police checkpoints before being stopped, reported The Hill.

Cast members hired two motorcycles and three large cars on which they put Canadian flags. Police waved the motorcade through two checkpoints before pulling it over near the Intercontinental Hotel where Mr. Bush is staying.

Australia: better comedy than Yahoo Serious and Crocodile Dundee! Who knew?

While You Weren't Paying Attention...

This has gotten completely lost because the news churn has been so enormous over the past week or so, but the IAEA quietly disputed Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's boast that over 3,000 centrifuges were operating at its nuclear facility.

The head of the United Nations' nuclear watchdog agency said Thursday that Iran was operating only several hundred centrifuges at its uranium enrichment plant at Natanz, despite its claims to have activated 3,000.

Mohamed ElBaradei, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said Iran's nuclear program was a concern but discounted its claims of a major advance in uranium enrichment, a process the U.N. demands Iran suspend or face increasing sanctions.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said Monday that the Natanz facility had begun "industrial-scale" production of nuclear fuel [...]

Experts say that 3,000 centrifuges would be enough in theory to develop a nuclear warhead in about a year, but they doubt Iran has that many devices successfully running.

ElBaradei said, "Iran is still just at the beginning stages in setting up its Natanz enrichment facility."

This is the kind of information that winds up in the back of the paper when it should be on page 1. It's glaringly obvious that the President of Iran is not a reliable narrator of Iran's nuclear program, nor is he even in charge of it. Yet our media, and certainly the conservative movement, appears to take him at face value, and uses his claims to push for more war. And when the most knowledgeable people in the field dispute the claims, it doesn't get broadcast widely.

I saw Henry Waxman speak in Los Angeles over the weekend, and he reiterated the same neocon-framed rhetoric that "no option can be off the table" regarding Iran. Waxman was on the tour of the Middle East with Pelosi, and in general his thoughts on the region were right in describing the interconnectedness and the complexity. But he feels the need to sound belligerent on Iran, and in so doing he stokes the fires for war from the liberal side of the aisle. Waxman also said that he rejected the notion that an amendment requiring Congressional approval for any funds used for an attack on Iran because he felt that the Congress has that authority anyway and Bush would subvert it, besides. If Congress has the authority, where's the harm in reiterating it? If "Bush would subvert it" was a decent answer to why not to pass a law, why pass any law? This is self-serving rhetoric that allows the drumbeat for war with Iran to continue. And even though it's been obscured over the past week, it's sure to bubble up again.