OH-05: Not Even Close

I think the key factor in the Ohio special election tonight, won in pretty much a blowout by Republican Bob Latta over Democrat Robin Weirauch, is the inclement weather gripping the Midwest. Special elections typically have low turnout, but this one was pretty darn low considering how much money was spent publicizing it. Not one county had higher than 30% turnout, with the largest ones hovering around 25% or less. It was about 35 degrees and rainy. It's a sad fact of American life that the weather depresses turnout, and a special election in December depresses it even more. And so the election followed form, and Weirauch lost by the same amount she lost to the late Paul Gillmor in 2006. If you're going to pull an upset in a heavily Republican district, you need a lot of turnout. Democrats always have.

I don't think this augurs much of anything, though that'll probably be the spin in Republican circles tomorrow. The win is that the Republicans spent $400,000 to keep a safe seat safe, and they're not going to be able to do that in every seat in 2008.

16 Percent

That's how much of their cash on hand that the National Republican Campaign Committee has spent on the OH-05 special election.

That's already a victory. And tomorrow, Robin Weirauch might get a real one.

(I suppose that the Republicans could blame this on a bad candidate, and claim that the recent Massachusetts special election that put Nikki Tsongas in the House was close, too, but the difference is that didn't cost the DCCC 16% of their cash on hand. In fact, I don't think it cost them a dime.)

The Progressive Speech I'd Like To Hear on Immigration

"My opponents on the other side of the aisle have spent practically their entire primary campaign engaged in demagoguery over the issue of immigration. They put out ads accusing immigrants of murder and rape, they encourage the arrest of church leaders that offer aid and services, and they advocate building fences and deporting millions of undocumented workers.

But the truth is, they don't want to fix this. So-called "illegal immigration" is the best thing that's ever happened to the Republican Party. They have had nearly 30 years of relative dominance in Washington to deal with the problem. But if they ever fixed it, they would have to answer for the real reasons there is a teetering economy, soaring health care and gas prices, growing inequality and a whole generation of Americans destined to do worse than their parents. Immigrants are nothing more than a scapegoat, and anyone who's read a history book or has Irish or Italian heritage knows that there's a long tradition of that in this country. Conservative politicians who have seen their economic ideas fail must find someone, anyone to blame. If so-called illegal immigration went away tomorrow, there wouldn't be anything left. Their failed ideology would be laid bare. They don't want to get rid of illegal immigrants. They don't want to do anything about it. They want a safety valve for their own shortcomings."

(Incidentally, many of the Presidential candidates came very close to this rhetoric in yesterday's excellent NPR radio debate.

“It’s a very clever question, Steve, but I think it really begs the question,” Mrs. Clinton responded. “What we’re looking at here is 12 to 14 million people — they live in our neighborhoods, they take care of our elderly, they probably made the beds in the hotels that some of us stayed in last night. They are embedded in our society. If we want to listen to the demagogues and the calls for us to being to round up people and turn every American into a suspicious vigilante, I think we will do graver harm to the fabric of our nation than any kind of person-by-person reporting of someone who might be here illegally.”

Representative Dennis Kucinich of Ohio said, “ We don’t encourage vigilantism in this country.”

)

"Nowhere can you see this tactic used more than in this ad in the upcoming Ohio special election.



"The Republicans literally point out every example of failed Republican policies and try to claim that illegal immigration is somehow to blame, as Robin Weirauch's "health care for illegal immigrants" plan (which isn't her plan, or any Democratic plan at all) is seen as a scourge. Without the illegal immigration angle, this could be a Democratic ad. When the Clinton Administration created 22 million new jobs, all of this immigration talk wasn't around. Suddenly, now that the economy is not working for average Americans, it's a major problem. The problem isn't immigration; it's conservative governance.

My opponent has no ideas to actually change immigration policy in a comprehensive way because that's NOT HIS GOAL. He wants a problem, something to point to, something to take the pressure off his own ideological failures. He's lying to you. And the question you have to ask yourself is whether or not you'll continue to let him do it."

P.S. There's a lot of great information about immigration and resources here.

OH-05: Lots of buzzing about an upset

So there are two special elections for Congress on December 11, one in VA-01 for the late Jo Ann Davis, and one in OH-05 for the late Paul Gillmor. Both were Republicans, and both are Republican-leaning seats. But they are also test cases to see just how badly Republican support has cratered in the country, particularly in the two bellweather states of Ohio and Virginia.

In particular, OH-05 looks very interesting. There's been an enormous amount of buzz today for the candidacy of Robin Weirauch, a former director of the Center for Regional Development at Bowling Green State University. Establishment and netroots-based Democrats are coming together to put a lot of pressure on the Republican in the race, Rep. Bob Latta. It's a career politician versus a citizen, and in Ohio, any career Republican pol is going to be tainted with the "Coingate" scandal that rocked the entire GOP and caused their whole statewide slate to lose in 2006. The DCCC has dropped a boatload of money on negative ads (one of which is here), and Weirauch has just been added to the Blue Majority page. The Republicans countered with a $280,000 ad buy, which is huge. That accounts for almost 10% of the NRCC's entire cash on hand. What's more, it shows that they're plenty nervous about what should be a safe seat.

New Daily Kos FPer brownsox has a backgrounder.

What I really like is that Weirauch's blog emphasizes real-world issues like jobs, product safety and children's healthcare. She seems to be running on a message of populism, opposition to NAFTA and other free trade agreements that have pummeled NW Ohio, and strengthening labor. She would not just be an additional Democrat, but separate from the corporatist Hoyer/Emanuel crowd. Let's hope she can pull through - and show the nation that the Republican brand is dead and buried in the Buckeye State.

UPDATE: Denny Hastert's old seat in IL-14, which will have a special election in March, will also be a great opportunity.