Most Dangerous Trouble Spot In The World Update

We have a real problem on our hands. The jihadists in Waziristan are directly responding to the siege of the Red Mosque in Pakistan by killing dozens in targeted attacks against police and leadership in the region. All that Pakistan can think to do is to try and restore the truce they signed last year. In so doing, they are acknowledging that they cannot fight the jihadists head-on and stop them. This is pretty much the same acknowledgment that the Lebanese government made with regard to Hezbollah. Except Pakistan is a nuclear power, so their belief that they cannot fight Islamists sets up a dangerous scenario where the Islamists can continue to mass forces for an eventual coup attempt, as Hezbollah is trying without as much success (but the Taliban and Al Qaeda remnants appear to be stronger in Waziristan, and have the support of tribal leaders there).

Spencer Ackerman writes:

Largely in response to Musharraf's crackdown on Islamabad's radical Red Mosque, Waziristan jihadis planted a suicide bomber in a police station to kill recruits as they took an entrance exam, targeted an Army convoy with gunmen and roadside bombs, and launched attacks throughout the province. The body count has yet to stabilize. Musharraf is moving thousands of troops in Waziristan that were previously confined to their barracks toward the Afghan border, but, reports Tom Lasseter for McClatchy, "it is not clear, though, whether the build-up is for a large scale operation or simply to add enough troops to maintain stability."

For diametrically opposing reasons, jihadists and secularists want Musharraf gone. (The secularists, of course, don't want to kill him.) How he responds to the collapse of the Waziristan truce will go a long way in determining whether he holds on to power -- and, more importantly, whether al-Qaeda holds on to its latest base of operations.

This is a bombshell, and I'm not trying to make a pun but it's apt. We've paid no attention to this growing problem within Pakistan, we've had a laissez-faire attitude toward it while pushing for all-out war elsewhere in the world, and yet this is the world's biggest danger.

You Knew That Wouldn't End Well

Will the death of 50 militants at the Red Mosque in Pakistan lead to a further radicalization of the population as the dead are martyred, or will the military and intelligence services reassert control. You're looking at the actual war on terror, folks, and the outcome could determine the next major threat of the 21st century. Very scary.

Absolutely and Completely Frightening

It's getting cursory play in the US media, but the siege of the Red Mosque in Pakistan, which for months has been overtaken by radical pro-Taliban Islamists, is cause for a great deal of alarm. Pakistan's status as an "ally" in the war on terror is debatable even in its nominal form; the radical movements in the country are stronger than the so-called "moderate" governmental forces. This public showdown of the two has the distinct possibility of being yet another spark that would cause the ouster of General Musharraf and the possibility of total anarchy in the nuclear-armed nation, which would be instantly the greatest threat to global security. Today, there was another assassination attempt on Musharraf:

Gunman fired on a plane carrying President Gen. Pervez Musharraf today as the government’s siege of a radical mosque in the center of Islamabad continued for a fourth day.

Security officials recovered three large guns from a nearby rooftop in a congested area of Rawalpindi, the site of two previous attempts on Mr. Musharraf’s life.

“Two antiaircraft guns were found which were not fired,” a government statement said. “However, shots were fired from a 7.62 sub-machine gun with telescope.”

There are ongoing negotiations between the student radicals in the mosque and the government, but at least 19 people have died so far, and this incident is fairly unprecedented for Islamabad, which is why I think it may lead to greater violence. There was an amusing moment when one of the chief clerics of the mosque was arrested while trying to leave the scene in a burqa. There's a chance that tensions could dissipate, as many other students are leaving the compound. But anytime there's fighting on the streets in Pakistan, it's a problem, because that country is a house of cards that could fall at any moment.