Here Are Some Good Ads

This is almost a "best of the cycle."

First, an powerful independent ad hitting Sarah Palin on choice.



Next, a Barack Obama "stealth ad" (unannounced to the media) running in Indiana that resurrects one of the best speakers from the DNC convention, Barney Smith, and uses his signature line:



And finally, an ad for Tom Udall, the next Democratic Senator from New Mexico, that is hard to watch without getting emotional:



Great work.

The Gang That Couldn't Shoot Straight

I'm still mad at the Democratic Congress, but there is a silver lining - they're not Republicans. I can hardly believe these two stories.

In New Mexico, Senate candidate and all-around wingnut Steve Pearce decided to attack his opponent Tom Udall for language in a bill that would prevent leases to extract oil from shale in the Rocky Mountains. Only problem is, it wasn't Tom Udall's bill. It was MARK Udall's. He's also running for the Senate, and when both of these Democrats get there they can have a laugh about how pathetic their opponents were.

In Minnesota, Sen. Norm Coleman put together an ad featuring his family. His wife actually lives in LA and drops in to Minnesota every now and again for campaigning. So maybe it isn't surprising that he's appeared to green-screen her into the ad the way she's green-screened into his personal life. You can see for yourself - something certainly look weird:



"Keystone Kops" would be a competent version of Republicans circa 2008.

Other Races On The Radar Tonight

Besides that little matter of the Democratic nominee clinching victory tonight, there are primaries all over the the country outside of California, some of them worth noting.

TPM Election Central mentions two Senate races, in New Mexico and New Jersey. The entire Congressional delegation in New Mexico is running for the seat vacated by Pete Domenici, and on the Republican side, wingnutty Steve Pearce is facing wingnut in moderate clothing Heather Wilson. Weirdly, Domenici waited until the weekend before the primary to endorse Wilson, so there was probably no impact of that. Pearce is favored in this primary, but the winner will be stomped by progressive Tom Udall in the general election, IMO.

In New Jersey, Frank Lautenberg was challenged from inside the party by Rob Andrews, a moderate (at best) Congressman. I think he's just trying to raise his statewide name ID for when Lautenberg (who's 84) eventually steps down, because he's getting smoked by all accounts. Andrews is having his wife run for his own Congressional seat and will probably try to get it back by having her step down if he loses. I hope he gets crushed today.

And in IA-03, Ed Fallon is challenging Bush Dog Leonard Boswell for a seat in Congress. Stoller calls this race an experiment in grassroots campaigning but I don't think that's true. Maybe it's because I'm in California, but in most parts of this state you can't put an ad on the air unless you're running statewide or get a king's ransom from an independent expenditure campaign. So I see this "experiment" every cycle. And it usually doesn't win, unfortunately. And most observers don't expect Fallon to win, either. But if he can make Boswell sweat, maybe he can alter his behavior.

More Udall-Americans In The Senate

Tom is better than Mark, and it looks like he's jumping into the New Mexico Senate race. This immediately makes this a top-tier race, and certainly lean Democrat. This adds to Virginia, New Hampshire and Colorado as lean-Democratic Senate seats. Already.

Obviously it would be better with a Democratic President, but if they do get a wider majority in the Senate, as looks certain, it might be time to take a look at Harry Reid's Majority Leadership. His track record this year is almost uniformly bad. Chris Dodd only lost the Majority Leader race by one vote back in 2004.

NM-SEN: Missed Opportunity?

It's pretty clear that Bill Richardson or Tom Udall would walk to victory over whoever the Republicans put up in the now-vacated Senate seat in New Mexico, but neither of them want the job. Richardson still thinks he can be President, so that's understandable. But Udall simply wants to gain seniority in the House and is looking this gift horse in the mouth. It's troubling that a decent progressive wouldn't step up when even the DSCC would consider him a prize recruit. So now the remaining options are Martin Chavez, the mayor of Albuquerque (who I guess is more of a centrist), and Lieutenant Governor Diane Denish, who sounds like she would make a great candidate but is being very measured about taking the plunge.

“The compelling argument is this: The country is in a mess and what we need is really good candidates to step forward,” Denish said today in an interview. “If the country wasn’t in a crisis, I think I would not blink an eye (in deciding against running for Senate), but I think building a stronger majority in the Senate is a real priority at this time.”

Denish, a Democrat, told me several months ago that she had no interest in leaving New Mexico for Washington. She told me today that she’s still not certain she does have such interest because she loves New Mexico. But a lot of people are arguing that she is the Democrat who can defeat a Republican in a Senate race next year.

And Democrats in Washington are trying to convince Denish that such potential candidates must step forward, for the good of their country.

Denish said she hopes to make a decision later this week.

“This should be about getting the best candidates who can run strong races and win the Senate seat for New Mexico, so we can be part of the change that’s going to happen in 2009,” she said. “It’s a very personal decision, and I’m not an instant decision-maker about life changes like this.”

Businessman Don Wiviott, who attended Yearly Kos, is also out there. I think that with as push to up the name ID, any Democrat has a shot in this race. But Udall was a clear first choice.

NM-SEN: Replacing One Corrupt Republican With Another

Sen. Domenici retired today, and he claims that it was for medical reasons. Considering that Bush did a major fundraiser for him just a month or so ago, that's fairly credible.

After a medical exam last month revealed progression of an incurable brain disorder known as frontotemporal lobar degeneration, or FLTD, the 75-year-old senator discussed retirement with his family and concluded that he might not physically be able to serve a full seventh term.

"The progress of this disease is apparently erratic and unpredictable. It may well be that seven years from now, it will be stable," Domenici said. "On the other hand, it may also be that the disease will have incapacitated me. That's possible."

I wish him the best.

But here's the thing. Domenici was going to have a difficult re-election campaign, mainly because of the fallout from the US Attorney scandal, and the revelations that he personally called then-federal prosecutor David Iglesias to pressure him to bring indictments against state Democrats, to help discredit former Attorney General Patricia Madrid, who was running in a local House race. So who decides to step in to fill Domenici's shoes? The other public official who called Iglesias, and the woman who was RUNNING against Patricia Madrid!

Rep. Heather Wilson (R-N.M) will run for the New Mexico Senate seat that is expected to open up officially later Thursday when Sen. Pete Domenici (R) declares that he will not seek reelection in 2008, according to a source familiar with Wilson’s decision.

Domenici has taken Wilson under his wing in recent years, and as he has gotten older, Wilson’s name has topped the list of potential heirs.

They really had no choice. There's no other statewide candidate who would even have half a chance in New Mexico, from what I've heard. But Wilson, who also took the lead among Republicans in criticizing the Janet Jackson "Nipplegate," is damaged goods statewide. And that's especially true if Steve Pearce, the certified winger US Congressman and pretty much the only other high-profile Republican there, were to primary her. The other benefit here is that Democrats would be favored to retake Wilson's House seat.

Meanwhile, the Democratic bench is plentiful. Don Wiviott was already running a self-financed campaign. And there's word that Rep. Tom Udall is seriously considering the seat. Obviously everyone's preference is for Bill Richardson to step in and run away with the race, but failing that, Udall's a good bet. If he runs, 3 cousins would be running for Senate on the same day; Mark Udall in CO, Tom Udall in NM, and Gordon Smith in OR.

Let's hear it for 2 out of 3!

This immediately becomes top-tier.