X Marks The Spot

(via Markos.)

The worst part of this collapse for McCain is that early voting has begun in a lot of states, and people are getting their absentee ballots, and estimates are that 1/3 of all votes will be cast before Nov. 4, so he'll be heading into Election Day well behind. Though the Obama campaign appears to have not taken advantage of the early voting window in Ohio the way that they should have, other states are showing much better results for them, and the voter registration numbers are even better.

Since January, the Florida Democratic Party has had a net gain of 415,580 voters, while the Republican Party of Florida has only gained 169,841. This shows that the gap between Democrats and Republicans in Florida has grown by 245,739 voters this year alone.

I don't think that one debate has the power to swing this tide, though I'll still watch it and obsess over it, of course.

Finally, let's give some credit to the behind-the-scenes players doing the ground work for Obama in the battlegrounds. It's really paying off. The WSJ profiles Working America today.

The little-noticed group formed by the AFL-CIO has no role in workplaces or contract bargaining and collects no mandatory dues. What it does is sign up members, 2.5 million so far, and persuade them to vote Democratic.

Working-class whites are important because they make up just about half of the electorate. The latest Wall Street Journal/NBC poll shows Sen. Obama has built a six-point lead over Sen. John McCain in part by cutting his deficit among these voters to 11 points.

Two weeks ago, when Sen. Obama trailed Sen. McCain by 18 points among this group, the presidential race was essentially tied, according to the WSJ/NBC poll [...]

Organized labor has much at stake in this election, as its leaders are hoping a Democratic president and Congress would push through legislation that could help reverse unions' long membership slide. Roughly 70% of Working America members have voted Democratic since the group was formed in 2003, the same percentage as union members, according to the AFL-CIO. The group says it has been signing up an average 50,000 new members a week for its database as the election approaches, up from 20,000 weekly during 2007. In its biggest state, the pivotal electoral battleground of Ohio, Working America's 800,000 members could make up more than 10% of the vote on Election Day.

Wow. Those are incredible numbers. And a third-party validator is probably more impactful for these groups than the Obama campaign.