IL-14: Foster's!

It's Australian for "the Republicans are in deep shit," mate!

U.S. House - District 14 - Special General

Illinois - 564 of 568 Precincts Reporting - 99%

Name Party Votes Vote %
Foster, Bill Dem 50,947 52%
Oberweis, Jim GOP 46,125 48%

Put it this way: if I told you in the middle of 2006 that Democrats would control Tom DeLay AND Dennis Hastert's seats in Congress, would you believe me?

Now, Foster needs to be watched. He ran on ending the war in Iraq and stopping retroactive immunity for the telecoms. He needs to be held to those campaign promises. But clearly, this is a big victory for a new Democratic coalition that can win in formerly red districts and red states, that can capitalize on this uniquely horrible President and the trashed Republican brand. The NRCC spent a MILLION dollars, one out of every three dollars they have, to save this seat, and they came up short. Foster's win is a road map for how to win in these districts; run strong against the war and George Bush's lawbreaking, and offer a real contrast.

This is also a big victory for Barack Obama, who cut an ad that ran all week to help Foster. John McCain came in here to help Jim Oberweis and it didn't matter. Obama's reputation as a map changer is very enhanced by this. In a way it's bigger than his win in Wyoming today.

There are now DOZENS more seats in play than anybody thinks. This is going to throw the NRCC into total disarray. Tom Cole, their chairman, might have to resign. Money may dry up even more. This is awesome.

The Accidental 50-State Strategy

I've seen nothing intelligent about the potential outcome of tomorrow's Wyoming Democratic caucuses, but this is a really cool story about Wyoming's Democrats, and why this extended primary that will touch perhaps every state in the Union is a good thing for the party.

But this time, Democrats here say, it feels different. In contrast to all the dismally attended, demoralized Democratic presidential caucuses of past years, the outnumbered Democrats of Wyoming might actually have something to roar about.

Some Democrats here say they have never seen a political mood swing so overwhelming or so fast — from the status quo of irrelevance to full kiss-kiss campaign embrace, in nothing flat.

“I have never had a period of compressed political intensity like these last 48 hours,” Kathleen M. Karpan, a longtime Democratic activist and former Wyoming secretary of state, said Thursday. Ms. Karpan, who supports Mrs. Clinton, of New York, took a week off from her law practice to help with last minute details before Saturday.

Around the state, caucus locations are being moved from living rooms to meeting halls. Here in Laramie County, the most populous, Democrats reserved the Cheyenne Civic Center, which will seat up to 1,500 people for an event that in the past has drawn maybe 250.

“People are excited that it would actually matter,” said Margaret Whited, the party chairwoman in Park County in the state’s northwest corner. Ms. Whited said all the energy and attention swirling around the caucuses could help in the fight against her biggest enemy: apathy among Democrats who think their voices do not count.

This is particularly true considering that Gary Trauner almost won the at-large Congressional seat here in 2006, and is running again in an open seat in 2008. Suddenly thousands of Democrats who've never been to a party meeting, who've never volunteered or phone banked or stuffed envelopes, are getting a taste of that aspect of civic participation.

I'm sure it was not Howard Dean's goal to have a primary season drag on until June. But in a perverse way, it's an extension of his 50-state strategy. I've now been completely turned around on this and think it will pay plenty of dividends in November, especially downticket, barring some kind of disaster in Denver. But as long as the conclusion is amicable, and I think it still can be, we're going to be in good shape in this general election and for years to come. And the biggest proof of that is right here.

More people say they are Democrats than said so before voting started in this year's presidential contests while the number of Republicans has remained flat, a survey showed Thursday.

The Associated Press-Ipsos poll had additional bad news for the GOP: The number of independents and moderates satisfied with President Bush and the country's direction has dipped to record or near-record lows.

John McCain, who has wrapped up the Republican presidential nomination, appeals to many independents. But the high levels of unhappiness among centrist voters, who can tip national campaigns, will present him with a challenge for the November election...

Just 22 percent in the AP-Ipsos poll said the country is moving in the right direction, about even with the 21 percent record low last June. Only 11 percent of independents and 23 percent of moderates said things were going well — the lowest ever in the poll for independents, and near bottom for moderates.

Thirty percent overall said they approve of the job Bush is doing, tying his worst showing last month.

When you have excitement and activism and weeks upon weeks of commercials and rallies and speeches promoting progressive principles and values, there's an impact. Even in Wyoming. Republicans now trail Democrats on practically every major issue, including immigration, taxes, reforming government, foreign policy, and morality. We have some rough waters to negotiate as the Clinton-Obama battle hits a fever pitch. But if they are traversed, this could be a really fun election year.

(As for a prediction, there are only 59,000 or so registered Democrats in the state, so this will be a small set of caucuses - if 30,000 come out that would be amazing. If you look at the other states in the region you'd have to say Obama is favored. There is a history of electing women in Wyoming, however, so you never know.)

All Hat No Cattle

This is hilarious. Turns out that the one state Multiple Choice Mitt managed to win was completely irregular (h/t dc20005):

The results of Republican nonbinding straw polls in some Wyoming counties Saturday don't jibe with the statewide delegate selection results in favor of former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.

In Johnson County, for example, former U.S. Sen. Fred Thompson of Tennessee came in first in the straw poll, while Romney was in fourth place [...]

In Park County's straw poll, Hunter outpolled Romney 26-20, according to the Cody Enterprise's online edition. But the county delegates chose Marilyn Taylor, a Romney supporter, as an alternate delegate to the national GOP convention.

In Campbell County, Romney supporter Greg Schaefer won the delegate slot although Paul won the straw poll, according to published accounts.

And in as many as half the counties, they didn't even HOLD a straw poll.

Isn't this what the primary process was meant to STOP, these kind of Tammany Hall (or Laramie Hall, in this case) tactics? I mean, this pretty much comes off like Romney bought the Wyoming primary, far from the media spotlight.

Prompting Tagg Romney to say, "I can haz inheritance now?"

(yet ANOTHER reason why the primary process is indisputably broken.)

Welcome To Caucus Day!

It truly is exciting today, here in this small, mostly white state out in flyover country, where a small subset of Americans will cast their ballot and determine the fate of the GOP hopefuls. The media crush is simply amazing, everywhere you look there's another reporter. And the polling has been so non-stop that you expect another one after the caucusues are over! Yes, the eyes of the nation are truly upon Wyoming today!

Wait, you haven't heard about it?

Don't forget Wyoming. It's been overlooked in the hoopla surrounding Thursday's Iowa caucuses and next week's New Hampshire primary, but Wyoming Republicans will caucus Saturday and choose delegates to the national convention in September.

Candidates have paid little attention to the state, though.

Mitt Romney, Fred Thompson, Duncan Hunter and Ron Paul have passed through since September. Mike Huckabee, Rudy Giuliani and John McCain have not.

"Yes, there have been some appearances by the candidates in this state that otherwise wouldn't have occurred this early in the process," said Jim King, who teaches political science at the University of Wyoming. "But candidates are where the media are — in Iowa and New Hampshire."

This is an example of how truly arbitrary this whole selection process is. The media isn't covering Wyoming because they've decided New Hampshire is more important, and anyway who wants to go to Wyoming after spending all that time in Iowa? So they ignore it, which causes the candidates to ignore it, because the important thing about these early races is the bump and not the win. Not that Wyoming should be decisive, but there's no real reason it should be dramatically less decisive than Iow and New Hampshire; all they have going for them is history. This is exhibit A of why the whole system needs an overhaul.

UPDATE: The good news here for Fred Thompson is that it's another state he gets to skip, just like New Hampshire! And a roar went up in Thompson headquarters. Or a snore. Or something.

UPDATE II: Mitt-mentum!

CHEYENNE, Wyoming: U.S. presidential candidate Mitt Romney grabbed the early lead in Wyoming's Republican caucuses Saturday as the state had its brief moment in the political spotlight between the traditional attention-getting contests in Iowa and New Hampshire.

This is good news for John McCain.

UPDATE II: With 83% of precincts reporting Romney has 70% of the delegates, Freddie Thompson 20%, and Duncan Hunter 10%. Hugh Hewitt just had a heart palpitation.

.

First In The Nation! ... Wyoming?

Wyoming Republicans just set their primary caucus for January 5, leapfrogging the entire field (well, for now, at least). The RNC has already sought to punish other states who have failed to abide by rules governing primary dates. The Wyoming Republican Party doesn't seem to be that worried about it.

"We're first in the nation," said Tom Sansonetti, the state party's 2008 county convention coordinator. "At least for the next couple, three weeks until New Hampshire and Iowa move, which I expect they will."

At this rate, the first primary will be held last week, and John Cox won, so why aren't you on the bandwagon?

I hope that the end result of this debacle of a primary process this year will result in some fundamental change for 2012. There's a massive free-rider problem here where the states have every incentive and no disincentive to move up. It's horrendous for democracy.

RIP Craig Thomas

Sen. Craig Thomas (R-WY) has died. He was 74.

Maybe it just seems like a lot of politicos are dying unexpectedly. Sad news.

Sounds like Wyoming does this the right way. In the event of an unexpected open Senate seat, the Governor appoints a replacement based on a list submitted by the state party to which the predecessor belonged. I always considered it nonsense that a Governor could admnister a pickup in the Congress. In this case, Wyoming's Governor is in fact a Democrat (Dave Freudenthal), but he is obligated to pick a Republican for the seat. We will likely get a more moderate Senator in there. I believe Thomas just won re-election, so this replacement will serve for five and a half years.

None of this matters at the moment, of course. Best to Sen. Thomas' family.

UPDATE: Apparently, I was wrong. The replacement will be up for re-election in 2008. Which means that both of Wyoming's Senate seats will be up for grabs next year. That's potentially significant, but nothing I want to think about right now.