Party Of No Clue

I briefly alluded to Mark Sanford rejecting stimulus funds that will result in up to 7,500 teachers being laid off. South Carolina legislators are trying to outflank him on that. But he's not the only one. Governor Goodhair of Texas is denying his citizens stimulus funds, too:

Gov. Rick Perry will announce today that he is blocking the state from accepting $550 million for expanded unemployment benefits as part of the federal stimulus package.

With an upscale Houston hardware store as his backdrop, he will paint the expansion as a burden on small business.

The Legislature still could move to change state law to draw down the money, but those changes would be subject to a Perry veto.

To be eligible for all the money, Texas must enact legislation that would change how the state’s calculates a worker’s eligibility and extend benefits to more workers, including those looking for part-time work.

Arnold Schwarznegger is trying the same thing in California, with the same argument that the changes in eligibility would impose an "unnecessary burden" on state businesses. Actually, what would impose a burden on them is them having to file for bankruptcy because nobody's buying goods because their unemployment ran out.

There's no real argument for this obstinacy from a policy perspective, just shopworn and outdated ideology. Sanford compared the stimulus to the policies of Zimbabwe, saying all this federal spending will lead to hyper-inflation. I wish! Right now we're in a deflationary spiral, and the only thing the Fed has the monetary tools to combat is inflation at this point. If we were experiencing any inflation at all, it would mean that the economy is at least sort of working again.

Then there's the argument that all this fiscal policy is like what FDR did during the Depression. Yes, they use that as a negative. The Bible for this revisionist history is a book by Amity Shlaes, and Jon Chait fairly well demolishes it.

Now here is the extremely strange thing about The Forgotten Man: it does not really argue that the New Deal failed. In fact, Shlaes does not make any actual argument at all, though she does venture some bold claims, which she both fails to substantiate and contradicts elsewhere. Reviewing her book in The New York Times, David Leonhardt noted that Shlaes makes her arguments "mostly by implication." This is putting it kindly. Shlaes introduces the book by asserting her thesis, but she barely even tries to demonstrate it. Instead she chooses to fill nearly four hundred pages with stories that mostly go nowhere. The experience of reading The Forgotten Man is more like talking to an old person who lived through the Depression than it is like reading an actual history of the Depression. Major events get cursory treatment while minor characters, such as an idiosyncratic black preacher or the founder of Alcoholics Anonymous, receive lengthy portraits. Having been prepared for a revisionist argument against the New Deal, I kept wondering if I had picked up the wrong book [...]

Shlaes begins every chapter with a date (say, December 1936), an unemployment percentage (15.3) and a Dow Jones Industrial Average. The tick-tick-tick of statistics is meant to show that conditions did not improve throughout the course of Roosevelt's presidency. Yet her statistics are highly selective. As those of us who get our economic information from sources other than the CNBC ticker know, the stock market is not a broad representative of living standards. Meanwhile, as the historian Eric Rauchway has pointed out, her unemployment figures exclude those employed by the Works Progress Administration and other workrelief agencies. Shlaes has explained in an op-ed piece that she did this because "to count a short-term, make-work project as a real job was to mask the anxiety of one who really didn't have regular work with long-term prospects." So, if you worked twelve hours per day in a coal mine hoping not to contract black lung or suffer an injury that would render you useless, you were employed. But if you constructed the Lincoln Tunnel, you had an anxiety-inducing make-work job.

In response to this criticism, Shlaes has retreated to the defense that unemployment was still high anyway. "Even if you add in all the work relief jobs, as some economists do," she has contended, "Roosevelt-era unemployment averages well above 10 percent. That's a level Obama has referred to once or twice--as a nightmare." But Roosevelt inherited unemployment that was over 20 percent! Sure, the level to which it fell was high by absolute standards, but it is certainly pertinent that he cut that level by more than half. By Shlaes's method of reckoning, Thomas Jefferson rates poorly on the scale of territorial acquisition, because on his watch the United States had less than half the square mileage it has today.

This is the intellectual heft on the right. And it manifests itself into policy with things like the "no-cost stimulus" - really - which would create two million jobs by, um, drill baby drilling, I guess. Never mind that oil prices are down, auto mileage is down and it takes ten years to get a drop of oil out of a new platform. That's going to be the "timely, targeted" stimulus to save our souls.

I'm beginning to think that, by trying to talk himself out of the RNC Chairmanship, Michael Steele is the SMART one.

Stimulus Monster Hungry, Needs More

Tim Geithner is seeking global stimulus from the G20.

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner urged the Group of 20 nations to take “forceful” actions to end the financial crisis and called for an expansion of the International Monetary Fund’s supplementary borrowing program by about $500 billion.

“This is a global crisis which requires a global response,” Geithner said yesterday in a statement from Washington. “G-20 countries must take strong macroeconomic and financial sector measures.” A “reasonable benchmark” is the IMF’s recommendation for stimulus equivalent to 2 percent of a nation’s gross domestic product, Geithner said.

Geithner will make the recommendations at a meeting starting tomorrow near London of finance ministers from 20 of the world’s industrial and developing nations that will lay the groundwork for a summit of leaders on April 2 in London.

2% of GDP is probably small based on the demand shortfall. That is roughly equivalent to our stimulus, which many economists believe is insufficient. And yet the EU is pushing back on this call for increased public spending.

But many European leaders say they have stimulated their economies enough. What the world needs now, they say, are tougher, globally enforced regulations on financial markets to avoid a repeat of the mistakes that led to the current troubles.

This week, they pushed back against Obama's plan.

"We are not ready to increase the packages we have established for the current situation," said Jean-Claude Juncker, prime minister and finance minister of Luxembourg and head of a European economic commission that met Tuesday in Brussels.

"The Americans should be more modest about giving lessons, because the crisis comes from them," Patrick Devedjian, France's minister for recovery, said in a TV interview.

Of course, this is true, but it's also entirely besides the point. There is a consistent global demand problem and it hardly matters where it came from. Failure to stimulate the economy now will lead to greater debts in the future as world economies spiral downward and revenues dry up. I don't disagree that regulatory reform is essential, but the real-world impact of a lack of demand is more far-reaching.

Meawhile, there is the question of whether American lawmakers are willing to lead by example. Nancy Pelosi signaled openness to a second stimulus if the economy needed one, but quickly walked the comments back, preferring to wait and see how the initial program is implemented along with the omnibus spending bill. This is probably prudent, but of course you have the neo-Hooverist wing best exemplified by Meghan McCain:

This morning on Fox & Friends, John McCain’s daughter Meghan McCain railed against President Obama for signing the omnibus spending bill yesterday. “I think it’s so disappointing and it’s scary,” McCain said, referencing the earmarks in the bill. “Hope and change – what’s going on?” She added, “This second stimulus package that Nancy Pelosi’s talking about I think doesn’t make sense.”

Meghan McCain’s comments this morning are surprising, given that last night she was telling MSNBC host Rachel Maddow that she doesn’t know much about the economy. Here’s how McCain responded when Maddow asked her whether she agrees with her father’s call for a spending freeze:

McCAIN: Spending freeze? You know, econ – economic things, I said this last night on Hannity, I said is my — I didn’t even take econ in college. I don’t completely understand it so I’d hate to make a comment one way or the other. That’s – truly of all the things – I keep reading and I just don’t understand it.

Of course, McCain Blogette isn't in a position to set policy, but her perspective really isn't all that different from South Carolina Governor Mark Sanford, turning down stimulus money while his state has the fastest-growing unemployment rate in the country, and not recognizing that his legislature is going to accept the federal funding anyway. Meanwhile he's out in public comparing the stimulus to the economic policy of Zimbabwe.

It's hard for Geithner to play the role of responsibility in front of the world, given that someone like this is running a state back home.

Murder In Harare

It was never fated to work. Robert Mugabe has been essentially a dictator for 30 years, and despite Morgan Tsvangirai's participation in the government as Prime Minister, it was clear that the power-sharing agreement would soon break down. I just didn't know that it would happen so fast or so brazenly:

Zimbabwe Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai's wife, Susan, was killed in a car wreck, senior officials with his party told CNN Friday.

Tsvangirai was injured along with an aide and the car's driver in the head-on collision with a large truck, according to Tsvangirai's spokesman, James Maridadi.

The extent of their injuries is not clear.

"Yes I can confirm that he was involved in a car accident along Harare-Masvingo road," Maridadi said.

"He has been brought to Harare and doctors are looking at him at a hospital."

Through an aide, Tsvangirai is now claiming that the crash was deliberate.

Zimbabwe's prime minister believes the driver of the truck that struck his car, killing his wife, deliberately drove toward them, his party told CNN.

Members of his political party, the Movement for Democratic Change, and former U.S. diplomat also say the crash raises suspicions of foul play.

The prime minister left a hospital Saturday, a day after his wife, Susan, was killed in the collision, officials said [...]

Tendai Biti, the MDC secretary-general, speaking during a tearful press conference, said Tsvangirai should have had better security.

"If there had been a police escort maybe what happened yesterday could have not have happened," Biti said.

"(A) police escort would have warned oncoming vehicles of a VIP arriving. I think authorities must understand the omission.

"We hope that this omission will be rectified, that the prime minister must be given the protection that ought to be accorded to a prime minister."

You take your life in your hands just driving in Africa, so it's not implausible that this was just a tragic accident. But Mugabe has disposed of rivals in this fashion before. And he certainly wouldn't have any moral reason not to engage in gangland behavior.

Watch this unravel the entire power sharing agreement. And it brings up a significant question - with the African Union impotent, the UN unable to function and the US tied down in two wars, exactly who would enforce the peace in Zimbabwe if Mugabe was exposed as a murderer and chaos reigned?

World Report

This has been a long time coming.

• Gaza: Gazans are quickly rebuilding the smuggling tunnels, making one wonder why 1,300 Palestinians had to die in what amounts to a large war crime, for no strategic gains. This of course hurts the chances for peace from Israel's perspective as well, as Bibi Netanyahu can demagogue that the current leaders "didn't finish the job" in Gaza, and as Prime Minister, he would. It's a sad pattern that wars embarked upon by "liberal" Israeli politicians do nothing but strengthen the hand of neoconservatives. I find the American engagement into the peace process promising, but without any partners, its success will be limited.

• Zimbabwe: Yet another failure to form a unity government while the countryside suffers from hyper-inflation and cholera attacks. Mugabe simply won't give up power, and the long-term crisis under his rule have to be a factor in the other nations in the region forcing his removal. I can't see how he stays on. There's a Southern African Development Conference summit this week - the other nations have a responsibility to the Zimbabwean people, let's see if they commit to it.

• Iraq: I have no idea what Ryan Crocker thinks he's accomplishing with this statement, warning against an "abrupt troop withdrawal" while simultaneously assuring everyone that Obama isn't doing that. Thanks, Ambassador, for boldly warning against the impact of a non-existent takeover of the government from a non-existent liberal hippie brigade calling for a non-existent immediate airlift of every US soldier. God, these guys are incompetent.

• Somalia: Nobody could have predicted that, when the Ethiopians invaded Somalia, they would soon pull out and leave the country to the same Islamists they went in to "vanquish." I hope the new Administration learns that you work for peace with the elements in a country who can actually enforce it. Creating "transitional authorities" never works.

• China: Man, the Chinese authorities don't mess around when their corporate executives screw up, do they? The death penalty for the head of the dairy implicated in the tainted milk scandal? Ouch.

• Congo: This is very good news in the bloodiest conflict in the world (also the bloodiest one you never hear about):

It seems the government of Rwanda cut a deal with the government of Congo to form an agreement to crack down on Hutu militias the Rwandans don’t like and have Rwanda turn on its proxy, the rebel leader Laurent Nkunda who Rwanda used to fight the Hutus but who’d been making all sorts of trouble and attempting, as Rwanda-backed rebels in Congo tend to, to overthrow the central government.

This is generally seen as an unexpected but positive move. Among African nations who are weary of war, perhaps Congo is the weariest.

• Sri Lanka: It looks like the Sri Lankan army is going to wrap up a successful counter-insurgency, now seizing Tamil Tiger strongholds and breaking the back of the rebels. Somebody should pay a visit to Colombo and find out how they did it. Hopefully the civilian casualties in this long-running war will stop.

History's Greatest Monster: Bush authorizes arms shipments to Zimbabwe?

Here's the memo.

Now, I want to exercise some caution here. Last May, when a Chinese ship attempted to deliver weapons to Zimbabwe, two members of the SADC - Angola and Namibia - refused to allow the ship to unload the cargo on their docks. Eventually China gave up on delivering the payload. Last month, however, the Zimbabwe Times reported that two SADC members were allowing shipments through intermediaries:

Large quantities of weapons continue to be shipped to Zimbabwe via the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), according to a new report by the United Nations.

Logistical support from Zanu-PF leader Robert Mugabe’s close allies in the government and armed forces of the strife-torn DRC is crucial to this process, evidence obtained by investigators suggests.

The final report of the group of experts on the DRC, submitted to the UN Security Council last week, says it is possible that the Congolese armed forces “may also be exporting weapons and ammunition to other countries in the region”.

The UN report skirts the issue of the precise route by which the weapons arrive in the DRC. However, unverified intelligence documents seen by the Mail & Guardian suggest that at least two countries in the Southern African Development Community are allowing shipments from China to land for onward transport to Zimbabwe via intermediaries including the DRC.

So any weapons from the US may or may not reach Zimbabwean shores. And the new President could put a swift end to any deliveries by revoking this memorandum.

However, let's put that aside for the moment. On effectively the last day of his Presidency, George Bush has apparently decided to embolden a dictator, and possibly strengthen him with arms. This comes at a time when Robert Mugabe is quite literally killing his own people.

The health crisis in Zimbabwe should be the subject of an investigation by the International Criminal Court, campaign group Physicians for Human Rights says.

President Robert Mugabe's government is responsible for the collapse of the health, water and sanitation systems - violating human rights, it says.

With no functioning public hospitals, the cholera epidemic has killed far more than 2,000 people, it added.

The US-based group called for the UN to take control of the health service.

This must be part of that democracy promotion agenda - dealing weapons to a fellow perpetrator of crimes against humanity.

This absolutely can be stopped by President-elect Obama, but only with attention. Let's make sure that no arms get from American hands into the hands of Mugabe's thugs.

But let's also not forget what a sad commentary this is on a pathetic and broken man who couldn't even wait out the last days of his Presidency without bringing to the world more evil and death.

Took A While

Now the US decides it can't accept the power-sharing agreement in Zimbabwe, or any government with Robert Mugabe at the helm. Mind you, the power-sharing agreement was put together several months ago.

Jendayi Frazer, the U.S. assistant secretary of state for African affairs, made the announcement in South Africa after spending the last several days explaining the U.S. shift to regional leaders. The new U.S. stance will put pressure on Zimbabwe's neighbors -- South Africa in particular -- to abandon Mugabe. But South Africa said its position was unchanged.

The U.S., Frazer said, has become convinced Mugabe is incapable of sharing power.

She cited political moves he has made since September without consulting the opposition, reports his regime has continued to harass and arrest opposition and human rights activists, and the continued deterioration of Zimbabwe's humanitarian and economic situation. Particularly worrying, she said, was the rapid spread of cholera, an easily treatable and preventable disease that has killed at least 1,000 Zimbabweans since August [...]

Frazer cited accusations from the Mugabe regime that the West waged biological warfare to deliberately start the cholera epidemic as an indication Mugabe is ''a man who's lost it, who's losing his mind, who's out of touch with reality.''

If Mugabe's neighbors were to unite and ''go to Mugabe and tell him to go, I do think he would go,'' she said.

It's just so late for this kind of change of heart. When Mugabe was threatening to kill his opposition back in June, that would have been a decent time to speak out. When he was plotting to rig the election, that could have been a moment to say no. Maybe before Zimbabwe had to print the 10 quintillion-dollar note, that could have been a good time. For months if not years it has been obvious that Mugabe was running his country aground, murdering and imprisoning dissenters and leaving many of his countrymen to die. At any point, the US could have shifted policy and pushed Mugabe's neighbors to expel him. Now? Well, he's not likely to listen, if he ever was.

President Robert Mugabe has said that "Zimbabwe is mine" and rejected calls from some African leaders to step down.

"I will never, never, never surrender," he told delegates of his ruling Zanu-PF party at its annual conference.

Mr Mugabe also said he had sent a letter to the country's main opposition leader, Morgan Tsvangirai, inviting him to be sworn in as prime minister.

Earlier, Mr Tsvangirai said he would pull out of power-sharing talks unless abductions of his supporters stopped.

I am encouraged that the US will finally try to move African nations to cut Mugabe a deal to get him out of power. But it took far too long.

These Aren't The Dead Zimbabweans You're Looking For

I guess when delusion has kept you in power for 30 years, you keep going with it:

President Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe declared Thursday that a cholera epidemic in the southern African nation had been "arrested," even as the United Nations said deaths from the illness had risen to 783.

In a speech at a funeral for a ruling party official, Mugabe credited the World Health Organization for helping contain the outbreak in Zimbabwe, which last week declared a national health emergency.

"Now there is no cholera, there is no cause for war," Mugabe said, according to news service reports. "We need doctors, not soldiers."

Mugabe's assessment of the outbreak was disputed by health-care organizations, which have flooded the economically devastated country in recent weeks with supplies and personnel. On Wednesday, the United Nations called for an additional $6 million to tackle cholera, which it said threatens "the well-being of thousands of people."

Nelson Chamisa, a spokesman for the opposition party Movement for Democratic Change, told the Bloomberg news service that Mugabe's claim was "clearly madness."

This is beyond the point where anyone can shake their heads. People are dying because of Mugabe's fictions. The international community must come to their rescue.

...the latest claim from a Zimbabwean minister is that the UK used bioterrorism to cause the cholera outbreak. It wasn't the grinding poverty and dysfunctional government leading to disease. Nope.

Opinion Coalesces: Mugabe Must Go

It's not often that you can get consensus on anything between Russ Feingold and George W. Bush, but Robert Mugabe is a uniter:

While Robert Mugabe continues to stall and uses bullying tactics to avoid compromise, Zimbabwe has devolved into a full-fledged humanitarian crisis. A cholera outbreak has already killed more than 500 people and nearly half the country is facing starvation. The capital city of Harare is in disarray with hospitals and schools closed, soldiers looting, and union activists being beaten by police. If this deterioration continues, it could lead to a wider humanitarian disaster that costs many more innocent lives and spills into the surrounding countries.

To avoid such a catastrophe, leaders in the region and the international community must take action now to ensure that clean water, food and medication reach the most vulnerable populations in Zimbabwe, and to remove any barriers to the importation of these necessities. It is important that South Africa is sending a delegation to look at the humanitarian needs, but those efforts, while critically important, are only a stopgap measure to save lives. We cannot forget that Zimbabwe's humanitarian problems are the direct result of the lack of a legitimate government, for which Mugabe is responsible. Until he and his cohorts accept a negotiated solution that fully respects the will of the people, Zimbabwe's nightmare will continue.

Bush himself has said the same on the issue, although the African Union is resisting stronger steps.

"It is time for Robert Mugabe to go," Bush said in Washington. "Across the continent, African voices are bravely speaking out to say now is the time for him to step down."

U.S. State Department spokesman Sean McCormack said countries in the region, notably South Africa, should do more to speed Mugabe's departure.

"They have unused leverage, at this point, that they could bring to bear. And we would hope, that they, as well as others, would bring to bear whatever leverage, political leverage, that they might have to help the situation," he told reporters in Washington.

But the African Union made clear it did not back calls for much tougher action.

"Only dialogue between the Zimbabwean parties, supported by the AU and other regional actors, can restore peace and stability to that country," said Salva Rweyemamu, spokesman for AU chairman and Tanzanian President Jakaya Kikwete.

I'm sure African nations have a healthy disrespect for the wishes of colonial powers when it comes to their leaders. It's perfectly understandable. But Mugabe is objectively allowing his own people to die and breaking every trust he's ever made with them. He has forfeited his right to govern. Hopefully more African leaders will come around to this, as Kenyan Prime Minister Raila Odinga and Archbishop Desmond Tutu already have.

...the impotence of America as a force for moral leadership is on display here. The UN Security Council is looking into further action.

World Report

Happy that I appear to have dodged the Blogger problems going around the Internets today, why don't I throw down with a world report?

• Zimbabwe: Robert Mugabe's wickedness is finally starting to catch up with him. He is in serious trouble because of both a crippling cholera epidemic and a threatened revolt of the internal security forces. Mugabe has run the country into the ground, and sooner or later the runaway inflation and searing poverty was going to impact how Zimbabweans viewed their country. You can only push people so far, even ones who are frightened.

In a clear sign that President Mugabe's hold on his state security machinery is starting to crumble, his once-loyal soldiers ran amok across the capital on Monday after they failed to access their paltry wages in the cash-strapped banks. The unarmed soldiers fought with heavily-armed police and several were arrested.

It was the third outbreak of such violence since last Thursday. The sight of rampaging soldiers was then unprecedented. Army sources said an inquiry had already begun, with dozens facing courts martial. Unconfirmed reports say three of the 12 soldiers who took part in Thursday's riot have been killed.

This is a time when Morgan Tsvangirai should live up to the name of his political party and lead a movement for democratic change.

• Thailand: Everyone was wondering what the Thai king would say in reaction to mass protests and the removal of the country's leading political party by the judiciary. Turns out he called in sick. And the caretaker government has cancelled a Parliamentary session to select a new Prime Minister. That would be what you'd call "paralysis."

• Israel: This is a hopeful sign that Israelis are finally starting to deal with the irrational right-wing element in their midst:

Israeli soldiers and police stormed a disputed building in the biblical city of Hebron on Thursday, dragging out 250 young settlers in a raid meant to send a warning to Jewish extremists fighting to keep what they see as God-promised land.

But activists responded with a wave of attacks on Israeli forces and Palestinians in the West Bank, even as Israeli politicians and some settler leaders denounced them.

The attacks are troubling, but the united front from the government and law enforcement is great. Sooner or later, Israel is going to have to give Palestinians their own state to live without fear in exchange for peace. It's the only solution, and ridding these extremists is a big step forward.

• Iraq: The Iraqi Presidency Council has now approved the security pact calling for withdrawal within three years, which means that there's nobody else in the Iraqi government that needs to approve it. Conservatives can scream all they want that this means they "won the war," which in the face of continued bombings and deaths is laughable (400 civilians still die every month in Iraq, at a minimum), but the need to reconcile and work together toward stability without the crutch of a US presence is going to have to be the long-term goal now. At this point, we owe it to the Iraqi people to leave.

• Canada: Everybody get to know the word "prorogue." That's what Stephen Harper did today in a desperate attempt to save his Prime Ministerial position.

Gov. Gen. Michaëlle Jean has granted a request from Stephen Harper to suspend Parliament until late next month, a move that avoids a confidence vote set for Monday that could have toppled his minority government.

"Following my advice, the Governor General has agreed to prorogue Parliament," Harper said outside Rideau Hall after a 2½-hour meeting with Jean.

Harper would not reveal the content of the discussion, citing constitutional traditions, but he said the first order of business when Parliament resumes on Jan. 26 will be the presentation of the federal budget, to be delivered the following day.

"The economy is the priority now, and the public is very frustrated with the situation in Parliament. We're all responsible for that," Harper said in French.

Monday's no-confidence vote could have precipitated the rise of a proposed Liberal-NDP coalition, supported by the Bloc Québécois, or could have resulted in another election, depending on the Governor General's response.

So there's no government in Canada until January, buying Harper time to wage a PR campaign to keep his job. There isn't much of a precedent for this since the 1600s. Jeffrey Feldman has a pretty good explainer. The upside for the center-left coalition is that Harper's spending cuts, anti-union measures and elimination of public financing will be shelved along with the government.

World Report

Here are a few things that caught my eye.

• Will you look at that, another foreign policy failure for the Bush Administration. They're basically saying that, with the Israeli government in a fair bit of turmoil, there isn't likely to be any movement on a Mideast peace deal. This is what happens when you wait 7 1/2 years to pay any attention to the Arab-Israeli conflict. I know the economic crisis is all-consuming, but Obama would do well to attack this early in his Administration, because it truly is the linchpin to peace throughout the region, and ignoring it for years will only cause more violence and resentment.

• Not that Israel is necessarily going to be inclined to cooperation with Obama. Tzipi Livni, who is the more "dovish" of aspirants for the Prime Minister's post, warned the President-elect that dialogue with Iran would be unwise because it may project "weakness." I don't think Obama will agree - but this gives you an insight into the prevailing mindset in Israel regarding Iran, driven more by paranoia than facts (the consensus of the US intelligence community is that Iran has no nukes, a fact that is conveniently forgotten).

• The E.U. is eager for financial reforms to regulate international banks, but waiting for President Bush to do the right thing is a Godot-like experience. Their plan, to hammer out reforms now and reassess them when Obama takes office with his input, is decent enough, I just think it's wishful thinking.

• Practically the only politician coming out of the financial fallout looking sound is Gordon Brown, who was one of the few to implement a solution that matched the problem. Voters in England appear to be responding by giving his party a boost, as Labour won a key byelection in Scotland. Brown was part of the Blair regime that was as asleep at the switch as every other world government leading up to the crisis, so I'm not sure he deserves all this praise, but I do think he's recovered enough to actually contend for his re-election instead of the sure defeat to the Tories predicted earlier.

• All hell is breaking loose in Zimbabwe, and right on schedule. After negotiating a power-sharing agreement, Robert Mugabe is now going to form his own government and deny cabinet posts to his rival Morgan Tsvangirai. The only surprise is that this didn't happen sooner. I hope Tsvangirai has a food-taster. Mugabe plays for keeps.

• Remember when the Russian "invasion" of Georgia was the greatest international crisis since the end of the Cold War? Turns out that it not only was not a consequential crisis on par with, say, the war in Iraq, but it was not a Russian invasion.

TBILISI, Georgia — Newly available accounts by independent military observers of the beginning of the war between Georgia and Russia this summer call into question the longstanding Georgian assertion that it was acting defensively against separatist and Russian aggression.

Instead, the accounts suggest that Georgia’s inexperienced military attacked the isolated separatist capital of Tskhinvali on Aug. 7 with indiscriminate artillery and rocket fire, exposing civilians, Russian peacekeepers and unarmed monitors to harm.

This is good journalism but you could have considered the source of the scaremongering - neocons with an agenda - back when the whole thing was in the news, and drawn the same conclusion. Neocons are wrong about everything. And the way to break their lock on power is to find everyone who hasn't been wrong about everything, regardless of ideology or political party, and put them in a room together, and unify them against these clowns. There's a lot at stake.

The other global crisis: What should be part of Friday's foreign policy debate

(this is a modification of an earlier post from Sunday)

The first Presidential debate is scheduled to focus on foreign policy, and I imagine those tuning in, whose knowledge of the subject is extremely limited, would rather hear the candidates talk about the current economic mess. But the past week or so has also revealed a series of crises in global hotspots around the world. This includes but is not limited to Iraq, and I would hope that Jim Lehrer understands the full spectrum of global decisions that the next President will have to make, and really make a sustained effort to force the candidates past simplistic slogans and into the heart of what they would do in foreign policy.

• First we have the Marriott bombing in Islamabad, Pakistan, the second big suicide attack in the Muslim world in the space of the week (along with the bombing of the US embassy in Sanaa, Yemen). Given that the Marriott is typically home to international businessmen and Western dignitaries, so those similarities exist as well. This was a signal from the Taliban in response to the recent spate of US forays into the FATA (Federally Administered Tribal Areas) region. Given that the Pakistani Prime Minister was due at the Marriott, it could have been worse.

Clearly there's a real problem with Pakistan. At least 300 have died in suicide attacks just this year. We've launched something approaching a shadow war in the FATA region, without any partnership and in fact increasing resistance from elements in the Pakistani government and the military, which is actively repelling raids. It threatens a split between the Army and the leadership of Prime Minister Zardari, and that has potentially disastrous results. In short, the country is on the brink.

More than any other terrorist attack in this volatile country, the devastating truck bombing of the Marriott Hotel over the weekend has presented government and military leaders here with a stark choice: Go all out against extremists or risk the nation's collapse into chaos.

That is the growing consensus among many Pakistani analysts and commentators, who fear that without rapid, determined and ironfisted action by officials and security forces, this nuclear-armed land is in danger of becoming a failed state, with Islamic radicals in control.

Brandon Friedman has more on this, and he believes that John McCain will end up altering his position on Pakistan with one more broadly in line with Barack Obama. But the question is how to best articulate that policy - maintaining a stance that respects Pakistan's national sovereignty, but one which understands that a safe harbor for those who wish to do Americans harm is not advisable. This is best accomplished by the locals, not yet another occupying force. But the locals may have competing interests. It's a complex, dangerous situation that represents the most dangerous trouble spot on the globe, and it demands attention.

• Across the border, Afghanistan is falling apart because the central government is weak and the Taliban has figured out how to fill in the cracks.

The new Taliban movement has created a parallel government structure that includes defense and finance councils and appoints judges and officials in some areas. It offers cash to recruits and presents letters of introduction to local leaders. It operates Web sites and a 24-hour propaganda apparatus that spins every military incident faster than Afghan and Western officials can manage.

"This is not the Taliban of Emirate times. It is a new, updated generation," said Waheed Mojda, a former foreign ministry aide under the Taliban Islamic Emirate, which ruled most of the country from 1996 to 2001. "They are more educated, and they don't punish people for having CDs or cassettes," he said. "The old Taliban wanted to bring sharia, security and unity to Afghanistan. The new Taliban has much broader goals -- to drive foreign forces out of the country and the Muslim world."

That's just distressing. From a humanitarian standpoint alone we have a responsibility to keep the Taliban on the run. But if they've become the de facto government in much of the country, military force against them will take on the look of an invasion, and it will have trouble succeeding. In fact, the US considers that violence will worsen in the country over the next year, due to a winter offensive, and the troops simply aren't going to be available to stop that. There's talk of a joint security force between the Afghans, the US and the Pakistanis to police the border, but it's unclear why the Pakistanis, who are resisting foreign actions in their territory, would agree to that.

• Ehud Olmert has been forced to resign as Israeli Prime Minister resulting from a bribery scandal, and Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni is set to take over as head of Kadima and the favorite to be the next leader. Needless to say, any turmoil in Israel impacts the greater Middle East. Livni has been the chief negotiator with the Palestinians, but if she can't form a government, there will be early elections, and a return to Likudnik power would be a disaster for any hopes for peace. Yet polls are showing that Bibi Netanyahu would be the victor if elections were held today. That's genuinely scary. And what's worse is that John McCain considers Middle East peace a low priority and would discourage Israeli-Syrian peace talks. This is the same neocon boorishness that has decreased our standing in the world and made us less safe, and it should absolutely be a part of any debate where Americans are trying to assess the candidates on foreign policy.

• Africa is at a crossroads. Much of East Africa is susceptible to extremism and has been ignored by the Bush Administration for years. Somalia, where a proxy force from Ethiopia raided a couple years ago and took down the Islamic Courts Union, is becoming increasingly unstable as the insurgents regroup, and if a harbor is established it could be another opportunity for attacks to be launched. The southern region, where a modicum of stability appeared to exist, has been rocked by the resignation of Thabo Mbeki in South Africa amid allegations of corruption, as well as eleven members of the cabinet. Mbeki has spent lots of time and political capital trying to put together a unity government in troubled Zimbabwe, which is incredibly tenuous. A forgotten Africa is both vulnerable to extremism and Chinese influence.

• The headline here is that North Korea is backing away from the nuclear deal with the United States, but the reality is more complex. The US was dragging their feet in removing North Korea from a list of state sponsors of terrorism, and with the instability surrounding the possible illness of Kim Jong Il, there could also be a jockeying for power among competing forces in Pyongyang. We have bought ourselves a little time, but it seems like both sides are stalling. With Pyongyang asking the IAEA to remove seals at their largest reprocessing facility, the gains of the past couple years are almost entirely lost, and this is a failure of the Bush Administration to live up to their commitments. Will that get mentioned?

• Meanwhile, the lax standards in Chinese manufacturing are still killing people, and the chemicals that are put into our foods, our supplies and most everything we buy (at a cheap price) are toxic. Can we have a serious argument about trade and relations with China without recognizing this?

• And then there's Iraq, of course. We now have a fair bit of proof that the ethnic cleansing of Baghdad is what led to the drop in violence, not the surge. There's more to Iraq than Baghdad, of course, but there are also more explanations for the security gains in those outlying areas (the Sunni Awakening in Anbar, for example). Meanwhile the political situation remains stalemated, as legislation for the provincial elections has failed for the fifth time. And the Awakening forces are growing more violent, which will get worse if the Maliki government follows through on locking them out of the security forces. As long as the debate here is played out over whether the surge was a success, we won't be having a real argument about the future of Iraq. It's dishonest.

It's time to get serious. The belligerent Bush foreign policy is making a dangerous world more dangerous. Our shrinking moral authority and lack of cooperation with allies has enhanced this. I don't know if we're losing the war on terrorism because I have no idea what a war on terrorism is, but the public thinks we are. And the choice in this Presidential election is between the same old neocon know-nothingism or a measured approach that recognizes both the challenges we face and the best way to combat them. That is more than important enough to fill 90 minutes on Friday night. I just hope that the debate is about the real issues.

World Report

With the first Presidential debate scheduled to focus on foreign policy, an area where knowledge is limited and bullshit spreads wide, let's take a brief look at what's going on in the world and what might be discussed in that debate, so that you're better informed:

• First we have the Marriott bombing in Islamabad, Pakistan, the second big suicide attack in the Muslim world in the space of the week (along with the bombing of the US embassy in Sanaa, Yemen). The Marriott is typically home to international businessmen and Western dignitaries, so those similarities exist as well. This was a signal from the Taliban in response to the recent spate of US forays into the FATA (Federally Administered Tribal Areas) region.

Clearly we have a real problem with Pakistan. We've launched something approaching a shadow war in the FATA region, without any partnership and in fact increasing resistance from elements in the Pakistani government. It threatens a split between the Army and the leadership of Prime Minister Zardari, and that has potentially disastrous results. Brandon Friedman has more on this, and he believes that John McCain will end up altering his position on Pakistan with one more broadly in line with Barack Obama. But the question is how to best articulate that policy - maintaining a stance that respects Pakistan's national sovereignty but understands that a safe harbor for those who wish to do Americans harm is not advisable. This is best accomplished by the locals, not yet another occupying force.

• Across the border, Afghanistan is falling apart because the central government is weak and the Taliban has figured out how to fill in the cracks.

The new Taliban movement has created a parallel government structure that includes defense and finance councils and appoints judges and officials in some areas. It offers cash to recruits and presents letters of introduction to local leaders. It operates Web sites and a 24-hour propaganda apparatus that spins every military incident faster than Afghan and Western officials can manage.

"This is not the Taliban of Emirate times. It is a new, updated generation," said Waheed Mojda, a former foreign ministry aide under the Taliban Islamic Emirate, which ruled most of the country from 1996 to 2001. "They are more educated, and they don't punish people for having CDs or cassettes," he said. "The old Taliban wanted to bring sharia, security and unity to Afghanistan. The new Taliban has much broader goals -- to drive foreign forces out of the country and the Muslim world."

That's just distressing. From a humanitarian standpoint alone we have a responsibility to keep the Taliban on the run. But if they've become the de facto government in much of the country, military force against them will take on the look of an invasion, and it will have trouble succeeding.

• Ehud Olmert has been forced to resign as Israeli Prime Minister resulting from a bribery scandal, and Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni is set to take over as head of Kadima and the favorite to be the next leader. Needless to say, any turmoil in Israel impacts the greater Middle East. Livni has been the chief negotiator with the Palestinians, but if she can't form a government, there will be early elections, and a return to Likudnik power would be a disaster for any hopes for peace. Yet polls are showing that Bibi Netanyahu would be the victor if elections were held today. That's genuinely scary.

• The Zimbabwean unity government has begun with Morgan Tsvangirai ruling out prosecution for the criminal activities of Robert Mugabe. And in the same breath he name-checks "the rule of law." Nice. Meanwhile, Thabo Mbeki, who spent much of the past several months brokering the Zimbabwean deal, was toppled as the head of his own country of South Africa amid allegations of corruption. There is instability in southern Africa that could metastasize and grow violent.

• The headline here is that North Korea is backing away from the nuclear deal with the United States, but the reality is more complex. The US was dragging their feet in removing North Korea from a list of state sponsors of terrorism, and with the instability surrounding the possible illness of Kim Jong Il, there could also be a jockeying for power among competing forces in Pyongyang. We have bought ourselves two years, but it seems like both sides are stalling and failing to live up to their commitments under the agreement.

• We now have a fair bit of proof that the ethnic cleansing of Baghdad is what led to the drop in violence, not the surge. There's more to Iraq than Baghdad, of course, but there are also more explanations for the security gains in those outlying areas (the Sunni Awakening in Anbar, for example). Meanwhile the political situation remains stalemated, as legislation for the provincial elections has failed for the fifth time. As long as the debate here is played out over whether the surge was a success, we won't be having a real argument about the future of Iraq. It's dishonest.

• Meanwhile, the lax standards in Chinese manufacturing are still killing people, and the chemicals that are put into our foods, our supplies and most everything we buy (at a cheap price) are toxic. Can we have a serious argument about trade without recognizing this?

Zimbabwe Update

So the President expanded sanctions against the Zimbabwean government, at the same time that both Robert Mugabe and opposition leaders are meeting for talks on forming a unity government. So what's going on here? Richard Dowder thinks it's a trap:

It is clear what Robert Mugabe wants to see from the talks with the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) that began in South Africa on Thursday. On December 27 1987 he sat down with Joshua Nkomo, the leader of the Zimbabwe African People's Union (Zapu) and signed a unity accord. It followed seven years of sustained violence against Nkomo's party in which some 18,000 people died. The creation of a government of national unity made Nkomo vice-president. Three Zapu leaders were given cabinet posts. They might as well have been hamsters in a cage on Mugabe's desk.

This is what Morgan Tsvangirai, the leader of the MDC, must remember as he sits down at the talks. Like Nkomo, his party has been battered, with many of his MPs dead, in hiding or facing charges, and more than 1,500 officials in prison. The mediator, Thabo Mbeki, and other African presidents would be happy with a deal similar to the 1987 accord. But will the MDC be able to arm-wrestle a deal that leads to Mugabe stepping down or to free and fair elections - or even a joint Mugabe/Tsvangirai control of the state and its security apparatus? The question, as Humpty Dumpty said, is: who is to be master?

Dowder argues that the talks are aimed at buying time while Mugabe can consolidate his grip on power and prepare for war. Certainly what we saw leading up to the election - tales of rape, murder, and intimidation - lead in that direction. The race might be between time and economic survival. Zimbabwe cannot currently produce enough bank note paper to keep the government solvent and paying for its thugs and supporters in the military. Really chaos is inevitable - it's a matter of how long the ruling elite can keep it at bay. So freezing the financial assets that they are taking out of the country with utmost speed is a good step.

No-Choice Election Day!

They're going ahead with the vote in Zimbabwe despite unanimous international outcry, and turnout has so far been sluggish. NPR reported that Robert Mugabe's ruling party forces will soon be forcing people to vote under penalty of death, and that all people without the purple ink-stained finger will be assumed to be opposition supporters, and thereafter beaten or killed. Mugabe tried to make with the accommodationist talk:

On the campaign trail Thursday, Mugabe said he was "open to discussion" with the opposition Movement for Democratic Change, but only after the vote. Mugabe had shown little interest in talks and his government had scoffed at Tsvangirai's call Wednesday to work together to form a transitional authority.

But the fact that he's threatened to kill opposition supporters makes me, shall we say, skeptical.

No country on Earth would be more perfect for Arthur Silber's stateless society project than Zimbabwe. They can't kill everyone for not voting.

Mugabe's Long Legacy

The traditional media and the political class are finally starting to catch up about the clown show that is Zimbabwe, where the ruling ZANU-PF party raided the oppostion headquarters and the leader of the Movement for Democratic Change, Morgan Tsvangirai, has to hide out at the Dutch embassy. It was obvious for about a month or two that Robert Mugabe wouldn't relinquish power and was willing to wage war if he lost the election. The Secretary of State is finally speaking out, and the Administration managed to get a weak condemnation of Mugabe through the UN Security Council. The trade unionists in South Africa is calling for economic isolation of the Zimbabwean government, but I can't see how they would be able to isolate them any more. There are rumblings from Britain about military action, as well (not sure I agree).

Welcome to the party, everyone. Mugabe has been doing this for YEARS. The African Union has been covering for him (including Nelson Mandela) while inflation skyrocketed and everyone except for his political allies were oppressed. Thanks for allowing this to fester. The people of Zimbabwe thank you.

Why Have The Election Indeed

The MDC pulled out of the runoff today. Clearly Mugabe was not going to relinquish power by peaceful means, so they had no choice. When your supporters are being raped and murdered, a peaceful transition isn't really an option. I'm sad for the Zimbabwean people.

And I Don't Think God's On The Ballot

The view of democracy from Robert Mugabe:

President Robert Mugabe said Friday that "only God" could remove him from office, as Zimbabwe's opposition considered pulling out of next week's run-off election amid escalating violence.

"The MDC will never be allowed to rule this country -- never ever," Mugabe told local business people in Zimbabwe's second city Bulawayo, referring to the opposition Movement for Democratic Change.

"Only God who appointed me will remove me -- not the MDC, not the British." [...]

Later Friday, at a rally in Bulawayo, Mugabe said: "We will never allow an event like an election reverse our independence, our sovereignty, our sweat and all that we fought for ... all that our comrades died fighting for."

Only cowards let an "election" remove them from power.

There's no point to even having the election now, as the MDC has said themselves.

Don't Even Bother With The Election At This Point

Suppose you had an election where one candidate's rallies were banned. He was continually arrested throughout the campaign, and the secretary-general of his party was held for treason. The national TV station refused to air his ads. On the other hand, the incumbent candidate rallies all over the country. People in the street would be beaten for not knowing his campaign slogan. Without a membership card to his party it would be next to impossible to get food aid.

Considering these factors, it's a testament to how uniformly awful a place Zimbabwe is and how hated a ruler Robert Mugabe is that the opponent WON the first round of voting.

I guess Thabo Mbeki met with Mugabe yesterday, but the opposition claims he's on Mugabe's side, so his role will be limited.

Thinking about Zimbabwe makes my head hurt. I long for the relative problems of funding endless war and allowing warrantless wiretapping.

Sounds Like It'll Be A Peaceful Transition Of Power

Why are we even bothering with the election in Zimbabwe, can't we go directly to the riot?

A defiant President Robert Mugabe yesterday vowed he would 'go to war' if he lost the presidential run-off due to take place in less than two weeks.

Describing the opposition as 'traitors', he claimed Zimbabwe would never 'be lost' again. Speaking at the burial of a veteran of the independence war, Mugabe said he would never accept the Movement for Democratic Change taking over. 'It shall never happen ... as long as I am alive and those who fought for the country are alive,' he said. 'We are prepared to fight for our country and to go to war for it.'

There isn't going to be anything approaching an election on June 27. It's going to be a sham. The electoral commission won't allow monitors to be accredited. There aren't enough monitors to man all the voting stations even if the ruling party would let them. Voters are being murdered already, and state violence is growing. What's going to happen in two weeks will be unspeakable, and the international community is doing seemingly nothing about it.

The World's Worst Government

What's happening right now in Zimbabwe is heartbreaking, as the world watches a dream die in slow motion. The opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai was arrested twice today, which is a recurrent pattern. His party is barred from holding political rallies weeks before Tsvangirai faces ruling party leader Robert Mugabe in an election. The #2 at the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) has been charged with treason and could face the death penalty.

Meanwhile, American food aid in the impoverished nation is being seized by the military.

JOHANNESBURG — Zimbabwean authorities confiscated a truck loaded with 20 tons of American food aid for poor schoolchildren and ordered that the wheat and pinto beans aboard be handed out to supporters of President Robert Mugabe at a political rally instead, the American ambassador said Wednesday.

“This government will stop at nothing, even starving the most defenseless people in the country — young children — to realize their political ambitions,” said the ambassador, James D. McGee, in an interview.

The government ordered all humanitarian aid groups to suspend their operations last week, charging that some of them were giving out food as bribes to win votes for the opposition leader, Morgan Tsvangirai, in a June 27 presidential runoff against Mr. Mugabe.

This is repugnant and I'd like to see just one American legislator speak out about this. John Kerry's wife is FROM Zimbabwe, for crying out loud. I don't know how the MDC deals with the helplessness of it all.