Why Yes I'm Reading Early Exit Polls

Will I ever learn?

You can find them here and here, among other places, I imagine. Don't trust any of them, but throwing out the topline numbers, they aren't all that unusual. People are far more concerned about the economy than anything else. 27% of voters say they've been contacted by the Obama campaign - that's superior ground game. People think the country's on the wrong track and they can't stand President Bush.

In the end, I think this will be reflected in the hard numbers.

Virginia Exits

According to the exit polls, Obama took women by 58-42, took voters without a college degree by 62-37, and took Latinos 55-45 (that may not be a huge sample, 5% according to the poll). That's supposed to be Clinton's entire base.

Those are pretty important numbers. And the baseline spread in Ohio, per SurveyUSA, is only 17 points, quite a bit less than the spreads in some of those other big states that Obama has had to come back from. (The only poll out of Texas has it even less, at 10 points). There's at least a decent chance that this could be over on March 4.

UPDATE: Another clean sweep. Obama takes Maryland and D.C. in addition to his 63-37 win in Virginia. He's actually ahead in total delegates and could get as high as a 54-29 split in Virginia.

John McCain pulled out a narrow win in Virginia and took Maryland, and I think both were winner-take-all states on the Republican side. So he's obviously consolidated a bit of support.

I'd say the betting odds are on an Obama-McCain matchup in November. But Obama needs to win either Texas or Ohio to seal the deal.

...watching Obama's speech right now, and it's not surprising that his line about how "George Bush won't be on the ballot this November" gets applause, but it's long, sustained, out-of-control applause. Our President is truly hated, and the Democratic majority in the Congress continues to not get that.

Exit Polling

There's been some early exit poll numbers floating about. Aside from the turnout and the high numbers of independents voting in both parties, the key number for me is this:

FEELINGS ABOUT PRESIDENT BUSH: Democratic primary voters felt a lot more negative about Bush than Republican voters felt positive:

-- Fully two-thirds of Democratic primary voters said they feel angry about the Bush administration and nearly all the rest said they were dissatisfied, but not angry.

-- Among Republican primary voters, fewer than one in 10 were enthusiastic and four in 10 were satisfied but not enthusiastic. About a third were dissatisfied and two in 10 GOP primary voters were angry about the Bush administration.

People can't stand this President. George McGovern was right.