Shoehorning In Immigration Reform?

Unlike health care and climate change, there have always been a handful of Republicans willing to deal on immigration reform. One of them was George W. Bush, although his sympathies arguably lied with the corporations who wanted that steady stream of cheap labor to keep flowing. And much of the work has already been done to lay the groundwork for a deal. So while many are skeptical, I wouldn't be surprised to see an immigration bill come together late in the session this year. The President met with Congressional leaders on the issue this week, and delivered remarks expressing the difficulties but also the opportunities in immigration reform. It won't be long in the health care debate before we start hearing about giving "free health care to illegal immigrants." Same with education. The same with practically every issue on Congress' plate, meaning that striking a deal on immigration would short-circuit the hijacking of other debates by xenophobes.

I agree with Markos, this can get done this session. The Senate wants to do it, the President wants to do it, and Republicans are completely forked by their need to bolster their credibility among the fast-growing Hispanic voter population.

Among Republicans, that level of support is larger than the overall -- 89-11. It seems they realize that these undocumented immigrants aren't going anywhere, so they like the idea of giving them legal status as long as they're punished for breaking the law and required to make restitution. Seems fair enough.

Republicans, playing to that 11 percent, will fight reform. Not only do they have the Pat Buchanans in their camp suffering from unbridled bigotry, but they have to consider the political ramifications of legalizing 10-15 million undocumented immigrants on their electoral prospects. The GOP's rabid anti-Latino sentiment (now being seen in their handling of the Sotomayor nomination) has been noted by Latinos, and their support for the Republican Party is hemorrhaging as a result. Republicans, already at a deep electoral deficit, can ill afford to dig themselves an even deeper hole in states like Arizona, New Mexico, North Carolina, Colorado, and Nevada.

Yet they're stuck in a no-win situation. Oppose comprehensive immigration reform, and lose even more of the meager support they have left among Latinos. Support it, piss off their nativist base, watch Obama get all the credit, and add net millions of new Democratic voters to the rolls.

The GOP's saving grace would be getting a guest worker program to the legislation, allowing for several hundred thousand indentured servants to be imported into the country on an annual basis. That would still anger their nativist base, but it would greatly please their big-business patrons. Yet the guest worker program angers organized labor for obvious (and justified) reasons. When hearing talk of "unresolved issues", tops among them is this guest worker program. And the big question is whether Reid has the votes without the guest worker program, or whether passage would require that compromise.

That will be the giant bone of contention, but other than that, I don't see much of an argument. The nativist base doesn't have a filibuster-worthy minority in the Senate. The sloth of Congress and the other high-profile issues on the docket could slow this down, but it could just as easily come together very quickly and pass without much delay.

Fun While It Lasted

It would be more fun to bring up the immigration bill every three months or so just to watch the right wing pop a vein, but it's officially dead for now, after failing two cloture votes today.

The bill wasn't workable, and with everybody demagoguing the issue to death there wasn't going to be any rational discourse about it. Harry Reid did what he could, but I don't see why he should have to carry water for a bill that's really the President's legacy project. Not to mention the fact that I'm really not interested in bringing de facto indentured servants onto our shores to be exploited by large businesses.

In two years, with a larger share of Congress and a Democratic President, there's a better chance of getting something favorable, anyway.

Can We Do Anything?

The Senate refused to close debate on the immigration bill today, after an encouraging vote to sunset the now-reduced guest worker program after five years passed late last night. At this point, it's questionable whether this gets to a conference committee at all, where it could get better. The pressure is on the President to have a legacy, so I think that the Democrats could easily make the bill more progressive in conference and not risk a veto. But I don't know if they can find 60 to close debate.

A central problem in this country is that the conservative base (and to a smaller extent the liberal one) has become so amped up about every little vote, thinking that it will bring about the end of civilization itself (which Tom Tancredo actually said in Tuesday's debate), that any kind of compromise just doesn't seem possible anymore. In this sense, Barack Obama's theme of unification is appealing, though I'm not sure it will be bought by the right.

We're talking about immigration here. It's already a problem that's unlikely to be fixed simply by shutting the border down; most people who are in this country illegally did so by overstaying visas. So the alternatives are continue this underground economy and shadow America, or actually try to do something about it. The process of earned legalization seems appropriately arduous, certainly more so than the 1986 amnesty by St. Ronnie. I'm very skeptical about that the workplace enforcement aspects of the bill will actually be, you know, enforced, but a new President with a shred of respect for the rule of law is likely to do so. The relief for agricultural workers who literally can't find anyone to work the fields makes sense. The guest worker program is indentured servitude and I'm glad that the Democrats are chipping away at it.

The conservatives are acting like passing this bill will lead to the end of the world. That's exactly what Lindsay Graham is responding to even while he attacks Obama. He's mad that his party has left reason behind in favor of demonization and fearmongering. Well, tough. You have a responsibility for that as much as anyone, Huckleberry. We have to understand that putting up a brick wall and acting like every tiny issue is as important as, say, Iraq, is counter-productive, and it's why so many of us feel that you simply can't get anything done through Congress anymore. No less than Trent Lott made this point the other day. Hopefully, the post-Bush era can be defined by ramping down the rhetoric. Of course, the Republicans, who started this pie fight and continue to play the fear card at every opportunity, are going to have to take the first step. I'm not hopeful.

Who Didn't See This Coming?

The Senate won't be passing an immigration bill this week, and maybe not ever. I don't think they were prepared for the amount of anger from the rank and file of both parties over this. A lot of it is out-and-out xenophobia, but there are some really unwise things in this bill, like the large guest worker program that currently is little more than an easily exploitable employee pool without basic rights. They need more than a week to fix them.