Watch The Big Bet Pay Off

A couple months ago, during the height of professional nervousness about the Obama campaign, I wrote a post titled Obama's Big Bet: The Power of The Ground Game. I sought to give some perspective to the immense volunteer effort that Obama started putting together back in 2007, never taking a break between the primary election and the general election, that would simply overwhelm the vaunted Republican "72-hour" effort on Election Day. This was quite clear if you dug into the numbers a bit and gathered what little information was out there in the traditional media.

Since that time, Sean Quinn at Five Thirty Eight and a few others have chronicled this effort, which really represents a new paradigm in American politics. Tomorrow you're going to see a volunteer operation that numbers in the millions, that is focused and ready to turn its attentions on a dime to whatever corner of the country needs assistance, that has already made its mark in the record numbers of early voters who have already reached the polls. My thoughts on Obama's ground game back in August were not met with total enthusiasm - many said that the ground game doesn't matter, that it only succeeds on the margins, that a media and message strategy was more powerful and effective. Of course the two are not mutually exclusive, and the media/message content has improved for the Obama campaign as time went on, as has the favorable terrain for a Democrat in the midst of brand new Bush-era failures on the economy.

But the ground game, and the way it has been put together, is an exact mirror for the type of government a President Obama will run, and its importance cannot be overstated. I say that as a veteran of these efforts. In California we have provided the muscle, mainly through phone calls, that allowed states across the country to focus their effort on neighborhood canvasses and person-to-person efforts. The quality and strength of the organization, from one Congressional district to the next, has been simply astonishing. It may go unnoticed after November 5, but California has made maybe 5 MILLION calls since October 23 in support of the Democratic ticket, in practically every battleground state, using methods as simple as a paper list and a cell phone, all the way up to alternative dialing systems that reach voters 10 times as fast (yes, Karl Rove, we have them too) and real-time data entry back into the VAN to update to practically the minute every calling action, providing a blueprint for field efforts.

But more than the organization, it's the dedication. On a campaign this large you're going to get a few glitches. At the local phonebank I help run yesterday we had a perfect storm of events. At precisely the same time, we experienced a system calling failure, the loss of Internet access, and the arrival of 20 new volunteers. Fortunately, the pizza dropped on us by a generous benefactor arrived at the same time, so we could hold everyone at bay for a minute. We went a few doors down, found a working connection at a sympathetic neighbor, moved our data team over there, printed out needed call sheets and kept the whole thing running in a matter of minutes. There is a spirit of teamwork and improvisation, working together to meet any challenge, that is impressive.

For anyone who thinks that the ground game is a myth or of minimal importance, it's time to become a believer. As Marcy Wheeler notes today, the Obama campaign, through enthusiasm and voter registration and pure force of will, has bent the likely voter model to what they hoped to see, changing the race fundamentally:

Not all pollsters are even adjusting their likely voter models to account for the huge number of people--significantly weighted to Democratic turnout in every swing state but Colorado--who have already voted. One that has, though, is Gallup; it's two likely voter models have converged, partly because of the large number of African-American voters who have already voted. It's worth noting, then, that Gallup has the most optimistic numbers for Obama of all of Pollster's recent polls: 53% to 42% [...]

Now, I'm not suggesting that Obama's going to improve his turnout tomorrow over what they've already done in early voting, except perhaps among youth voters. But I think likely voter models that presume Republicans will reliably turn out may turn out to be wrong, particularly since McCain's rallies today are attracting one tenth of the crowd they expected, since Republicans are underperforming Dems in early voting (though still voting early at higher rates than in 2004), and since McCain has cannibalized his GOTV funds to dump into advertising.

In other words, though Gallup's likely voter models converged, its model(s) still assume healthy GOP turnout. But there are lots of reasons to think fewer people who say they're support McCain will show up than Gallup and other pollsters think.

We're going to see the impact of all of this on Election Day. But having lived and breathed these ground game efforts from just one sunny corner on the Left Coast, I am very confident that it was this energy and this organization that has put the Obama campaign in the position to succeed wildly. The spirit of volunteerism in the Obama campaign is the spirit of a nation engaged politically once again. A movement that understands the value of talking to friends and neighbors, of having the information and knowledge ready to pass on to skeptics, is a movement that cannot be derailed by smears or false equivalencies. I watched a young African-American woman on the phone with a 90 year-old from central Indiana who just couldn't envision a black President, and I watched the young woman use a calm demeanor and logic and reason to move this Indianan into Obama's column. It was a fitting metaphor for the power of speech, the power of action, the power of engagement. And it won't end with the end of this election tomorrow.

Obama made this bet almost two years ago, and with one more solid day of action, I have no doubts it will pay off.

Before you go, you should really take a look at this video from the campaign - it shows you how much THEY value the ground game, and why an Obama Administration is going to enlist this same unity of effort and purpose to bring about the change they seek. (Of course, it's going to be up to those of us in the progressive movement to ensure that such change is real, thorough and precise - that's the second half of our duty, to encourage the agenda but hold accountable elements of it that are too weak or Congressional members that seek to fight it.)

On the Road, On the Ground

Given the attention I've been paying to the ground game, I'm really excited for this.

Five Thirty Eight is headed for the open road. We may have built a reputation for the numbers, but don’t be fooled: there is poetry in our souls. We are in the middle of an epic election, and for the final eight weeks we’ll be bringing you not only an intense daily polling menu, but also the story of the battleground states’ ground game.

You deserve that – you love this country just as much as we do, so consider it the least we could offer. At the end of this important day of remembrance, in the starry-dark Reno bare-mountain night, we’re officially posting notice of our series to come.

The story of the organizer and volunteer effort is one that needs to be told. It was much underreported in 2004 just how potently the Bush ground campaign organized. Say what you want about his governance – and we all have – but his competitive fire was lit for the election race. Republicans turned their voters out. Who’s got more heart this time? Missouri boys say: Show-Me.

538 has been dead-on in describing the ground game for everyone, so I have no doubt they'll do a great job. I hope they are also going to take a close look at the McCain campaign's ground game, the constant voter suppression efforts that we'll see between now and November. But the Obama ground game has the potential to be massive and really game-changing. In Southern California we've called over 200,000 voters in Nevada over the past two weeks alone. The goal is 4 million and it will be met.

I should also add that volunteering for the election is really energizing and makes you feel like you're making a difference, so I recommend it wholeheartedly.

Democrats Work in San Pedro With Debbie Cook (CA-46)

Today about 20 volunteers congregated at the White Point Nature Preserve in San Pedro to give back to the community as part of Democrats Work and their national day of service. I know community organizing and community service is teh suck, but that didn't stop us, for some reason. Democrats Work is a really great organization that brands service and volunteerism as a Democratic value, part of protecting the commons and creating a more livable world.

We arrived around 9am and immediately set to work clearing tumbleweed from a large area of the preserve, which formerly housed a naval missile silo. For 2 1/2 hours we picked, pulled and chopped away at the weeds. And joining us was Congressional candidate in CA-46 Debbie Cook (San Pedro is in her district). Now, most candidates would spend about 10 minutes there, get their photo-op, shake a few hands and go home. Cook drove up in her car and spent the entire volunteer session with us. Pretty interesting.

I talked to Cook a bit about her race against Crazy Dana Rohrabacher. Obviously, the big hurdle right now is financial. While Cook has outraised Dana Rohrabacher since she entered the race, she still is at a disadvantage of 3:1 in cash on hand, and until she shows more fundraising strength, outside groups like the DCCC won't jump in. It's kind of a vicious cycle - you can't get money until you raise money. Cook has released a TV ad that's running in the district on local cable, and she has an ActBlue site up for supporters to adopt an ad. She also raised close to $10,000 in Blue America's recent contest, and while she didn't win to receive the extra $10,000, it was still a success. Cook has challenged Rohrabacher to debates but he's been cool to the idea. Local PBS station KOCE has committed to running the debate with or without Crazy Dana, so she may be debating an empty chair. Cook discussed her plan for Iraq (if the oil companies require security to do their business in the country, they can pay for the private security contractors like Blackwater and let us leave), her energy ideas (the drillusion is backwards thinking that will never move us forward), and Sarah Palin (as the mayor of Huntington Beach, she said that she never received such federal largesse from earmarks that Palin did as mayor of Wasilla, despite having 20 times as many constituents), among other things, while helping clear the tumbleweed. Cook is an impressive and dedicated citizen legislator who would truly be a breath of fresh air in Washington.

Overall, not a bad morning.



It was a wide expanse.


This one's me.

Debbie Cook and a volunteer.


The whole gang and the fruits of our labor

Big Tent

In order to rise from a relative unknown who lost to Chicago legend Bobby Rush in 2000 to the cusp of a Presidential nomination today, Barack Obama did not only have to court all elements of the varied coalitions that rule politics in Chicago, he had to build the coalition large enough to be someone all those coalitions wanted to rally behind. In 1992, Obama, working as a community organizer, registered 150,000 residents throughout Chicago to vote in what ended up being a landmark election, as Carol Moseley Braun became the first female African-American ever elected to the US Senate.

This weekend I attended an Obama Vote for Change rally in South LA which ended up registering 615 new voters. It was one of over 100 events all over the country; here's a report of another one in Birmingham, Alabama. Over 400 volunteers attended the Los Angeles event, heard from a few speakers, were trained in voter registration (most of them were doing it for the first time), and sent out into the surrounding area. Now, 600-some new voters in the LA area isn't going to sway much politically or ensure an already-fairly-assured Democratic victory in California. But it does build the tent, not only for the general election but beyond. I've written at length about how Obama's gamble is to build a liberal electorate that's so big that he has a serious advantage for his election and his agenda of reform. A nationwide effort maximizes resources, keeps that army of volunteers excited and doing work, and builds that base to be dispatched for the general election. In addition to voter registration, the volunteers were signing up registered voters to volunteer later in the campaign. We could see a million people on the ground all across the country in November. That's special - and different.

I got a significant amount of pushback from my Obama Party post, even though I thought I noted my concerns with it, mainly from those who thought he's building a "political machine." As the NYT magazine story linked above notes, Obama never made inroads with the Daley machine until Daley co-opted him after his 2004 convention speech. Also, is this the 1870s where a Presidential candidate isn't allowed to campaign on his behalf? John Kerry outsourced the field and mobilization to ACT and outside groups and it was a stupid plan. Obama thinks he has a better idea that will work long beyond the election, and I support that aspect of it. I worry about his shutting out of outside groups, but I will note that yesterday's event was at the campaign offices of Mark Ridley-Thomas, a progressive running for LA County Supervisor, and the event in Huntington Beach doubled as the kickoff event for Congressional candidate Debbie Cook. So there is a layering effect, where the local candidates are benefiting from Obama's work at the national level, and that has soothed my concerns to an extent.

Time To Play: You're The New York Times Editor!

So, let's see. You're the New York Times. You're a national paper, but you have a significant readership in California, so you want to cover the Left Coast every now and again. You're not on the ground in California, but you have a few reporters hither and yon, and press releases a go-go from the Governor's office. There's a space in the paper for a California story, something that can show to the world the innovation and forward-thinking at work in the nation's largest state. So you look over what they've done for the last few days.

On the one hand, the Governor, just months from failing in a quest to massively expand health care to millions of uninsured Californians, has decided to go in the complete opposite direction and force Medi-Cal enrollees to fill out all kinds of paperwork in the hopes of knocking thousands off the rolls to save money.

Administration officials expect the rule will result in 122,000 people being dropped from the rolls next year, saving the state $92 million - money that the governor's staff has already counted against the state's deficit.

The plan calls for about 4.5 million of the 6.5 million enrollees of the Medi-Cal program to file eligibility forms with the state four times a year. Under existing law, children, some disabled people and pregnant women must reapply once a year, while parents are required to report twice annually.

The chore of filling out a form and sending it to regulators might sound simple enough, but for Medi-Cal recipients such as Ernie Campbell of Novato, who has hemophilia, the danger of losing coverage because of an unanticipated problem, such as a form being lost or delayed in the mail, is a serious one.

"The renewal process is already a lot of paperwork and they warn you if you don't get everything in on time you could lose your coverage," said Campbell, 31. "I think this could probably affect me pretty negatively."

Sounds like something you'd want to cover. You know, the story has an arc and some drama, with a callous Governor claiming the mantle of universal health care in public and trying to cast off the sick and the poor in private.

On the other hand, there's this somewhat meaningless move to create a cabinet-level position for volunteerism, an effort to outsource normal government functions, and let them rise and fall on volunteer efforts. Seems like not much of a program at all, and certainly of less importance to everyday Californians than this plan to purge the Medi-Cal rolls. Anyway there are plenty of volunteer organizations that perform these functions all the time.

Of course, The Times went ahead with the volunteer story.

Under the change, the governor’s commission for volunteerism, California Volunteers, will maintain its staffing and budget. But its executive director will gain expanded duties as a cabinet secretary, playing a role in disaster-related planning and response efforts and coordinating volunteers at disaster sites.

The office will also manage donations that flow into the state for disaster relief, a responsibility now held by the state’s Office of Emergency Response. It is the first time a governor’s commission overseeing federal money to manage volunteers — panels required by law since 1993 — has been elevated to a cabinet role.

Really no change at all, aside from a change in the faceplate on somebody's office door.

But that fit the narrative of the "Governator is teh awesome" much, much better. So off it goes to the front porches of all the Grey Lady's readers.

And some people blame the 2006 election loss on Phil Angelides. Ho-kay.