"The Intelligence I Get Is Darn Good Intelligence..."

"I don't follow it or anything, but you know, it's darn good..."

Intelligence analysts predicted, in secret papers circulated within the government before the Iraq invasion, that al-Qaida would see U.S. military action as an opportunity to increase its operations and that Iran would try to shape a post-Saddam Iraq.

The top analysts in government also said that establishing a stable democracy in Iraq would be a "long, difficult and probably turbulent process."

Democrats said the newly declassified documents, part of a Senate Intelligence Committee investigation released Friday, make clear that the Bush administration was warned about the very challenges it now faces as it tries to stabilize Iraq.

"Sadly, the administration's refusal to heed these dire warnings — and worse, to plan for them — has led to tragic consequences for which our nation is paying a terrible price," said Senate Intelligence Chairman Jay Rockefeller, D-W.Va.

I hate to keep heaping scorn on the Democrats, but this was known to anyone with a brain in 2002. Removing Saddam Hussein, who was keeping Iraq together by sheer force of will, without making any credible plan for the postwar environment,was OF COURSE going to lead to turbulence and instability. And handing over the country to the Shiites was OF COURSE going to embolden Iran, and OF COURSE they would move to solidify their presence in Iraq and in the region. Iraq is not a country but an arbitrary set of lines on a post-Ottoman empite map devised by the British after WWI. Shiites were persecuted in Iraq for 30 years and had an ongoing feud with Sunnis for 1,400 years. The intelligence community probably needed 10 minutes to look at the evidence and say "This will not end well." Hell, it's the same assessment DICK FRIGGIN' CHENEY made as SecDef in 1991 for pulling back and not marching onward to Baghdad during Gulf War I.

And I'm sorry Senator Rockefeller, but you voted for the war along with half of your colleagues. And you voted yesterday to sink more money and American lives into this disaster. So kindly STFU.

This is hysterical:

Some Republicans rejected the committee's work as flawed. The panel's top Republican, Sen. Kit Bond of Missouri, said the report's conclusions selectively highlight the intelligence agencies' findings that seem to be important now, distorting the picture of what was presented to policy-makers.

He said the committee's work on the Iraq intelligence "has become too embroiled in politics and partisanship to produce an accurate and meaningful report."

See, the intelligence community failed by bring too right about the postwar situation.

I found this particular assessment interesting...

Postwar Iraq would face significant economic challenges, having few resources beyond oil. Analysts predicted that Iraq's large petroleum resources would make economic reconstruction easier, but they didn't anticipate that continued fighting and sabotage would drag down oil production.

Because they didn't anticipate the fact that Iraq could always switch to the world's oldest profession and become a narco-state.

Farmers in southern Iraq have started to grow opium poppies in their fields for the first time, sparking fears that Iraq might become a serious drugs producer along the lines of Afghanistan.

Rice farmers along the Euphrates, to the west of the city of Diwaniya, south of Baghdad, have stopped cultivating rice, for which the area is famous, and are instead planting poppies, Iraqi sources familiar with the area have told The Independent.

The shift to opium cultivation is still in its early stages but there is little the Iraqi government can do about it because rival Shia militias and their surrogates in the security forces control Diwaniya and its neighbourhood. There have been bloody clashes between militiamen, police, Iraqi army and US forces in the city over the past two months.

Stupid intelligence assesment. Why didn't you warn us about the opium production?

The fact is that the Administration downplayed anything that painted less that a rosy scenario in Iraq, and took this nation to war under complete false pretenses. And the other fact is that it was STILL obvious that Iraq would not go gently into that good night, and Democrats should be rightly faulted at the time for not seeing through the spin. Same with the media.