LA-06: Freedom's Watch To The Rescue

So here's another very Republican seat that an outside organization has to dig deepto try and save for the GOP.

Freedom’s Watch, a conservative advocacy group founded by former Bush administration officials last year, has bought advertising time on Baton Rouge television stations today – signaling a willingness for the upstart organization to help Congressional Republicans hang onto some of their more vulnerable seats.

The ad, scheduled to begin airing tomorrow, attacks state Rep. Don Cazayoux, the Democratic nominee running for former Rep. Richard Baker’s (R-La.) seat. Cazayoux is facing former GOP state Rep. Woody Jenkins in the May 3 special election.

This marks the second foray by Freedom’s Watch into a contested Congressional campaign. The group spent about $86,000 earlier in the year in a Ohio special election on behalf of now-Rep. Bob Latta (R-Ohio)

But it stayed on the sidelines as Jim Oberweis lost to now-Rep. Bill Foster (D-Ill.) in the solidly Republican district of former House Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.) – which raised questions on how active the group will be in spending money in hotly-contested Congressional campaigns.

If LA-06 is in trouble, which it most certainly is (in the poll cited in the story, Democrat Don Cazayoux leads by seven points), then Freedom's Watch doesn't have nearly enough cash to save the GOP's butt. That presages about 100 seats up for grabs in November. Anyway, Freedom's Watch is crippled by internal fighting and incompetence, and isn't likely to be anyone's savior, anyway. The right keeps setting up these organizations as "our answer to MoveOn" and doesn't empower citizens to get involved with them, preferring to run them from the top down, and then they wonder why they fizzle. This Louisiana race isn't only one which tests the Republican Party's credibility, but Freedom's Watch's as well.

... MS-01 is also looking to be a tossup, and the residual effect of a contested Presidential primary is actually enhancing the possibilities for Travis Childers here.

The wild card in the races to succeed Wicker may be turnout. The highly competitive contest for the Democratic presidential nomination between Sens. Barack Obama of Illinois and Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York has energized the Democratic voting base widely across the country, and Mississippi’s 1st District has not been immune to that. Democratic voters outnumbered Republican voters in the 1st District primary and runoff for November’s general election contest.

We also saw that in 6 of the 19 seats held by Republicans in California. Republicans are in so much trouble and they surely know it.