Why Paul Begala Shouldn't Be In Charge Of Anything

Sorry, terribly busy and cut off from the 'Net for long stretches today and tomorrow.

But I did see that Markos made the point I swear I just made in conversation with someone:

Remember this, from 5/11/2006?

BLITZER: Very quickly, is Howard Dean in trouble?

BEGALA: No. I think Candy's report was spot on.

He -- yes, he's in trouble, in that campaign managers, candidates, are really angry with him. He has raised $74 million and spent $64 million. He says it's a long-term strategy. But what he has spent it on, apparently, is just hiring a bunch of staff people to wander around Utah and Mississippi and pick their nose. That's not how you build a party. You win elections. That's how you build a party.

Funny, guess what happened in Mississippi yesterday?

No one could've ever predicted that investing in a state's infrastructure would make it easier to win elections in the future.

Ultimately, this is why Howard Dean and the 50-state strategy has been the best thing for the Democratic Party in a long time, and why Paul Begala shouldn't ever be in charge of anything remotely connected to the Party ever again. That investment in state-based infrastructure is worth so much to the future of the Party, it's not even funny. I can't say for sure, but I'm willing to bet that we don't win MS-01 yesterday without those staffers. The goal of the 50-state strategy is to be ready to take advantage of opportunities anywhere they arise.

As a state-based blogger at Calitics, you could say that I'm part of that infrastructure. And I'm proud to say Calitics has been given a credential for the DNC and will be sitting on the floor with the California delegation. 50-state strategy is go.

(This is also ultimately why the Clintonites shouldn't get back the levers of power in Washington. They weakened the party on the first go-round and their thinking is still very backward and reductivist.)

The Coming Republican Dissolution

The MS-01 pickup is truly a game-changer, and bodes extremely well for the fall. I don't know if the additional Democrats mobilized by a competitive Presidential primary in Mississippi in March played a factor or not, but this was a 62% district for Bush, and we didn't just win, but we won by 8 points. With high turnout for a special election - over 100,000 voters. November looks very strong, as Kos diarist dweb8321 points out with 26 supporting reasons, many of which I've noted here in the past (McCain still hasn't polled above 45% nationally, he can't break 75% in these primaries when he's not running against anyone, Bob Barr, etc.)

Now, the Republicans made a big mistake by trying to run against Barack Obama in this seat instead of Travis Childers, something I think they'll alter for the fall unless they are stupider than I thought. Tom Cole of the NRCC basically sounded the alarm last night.

Rep. Tom Cole (R-Okla.), chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, sounded an alarm for all GOP candidates "to take stock of their campaigns and position themselves for challenging campaigns this fall" while lashing themselves to the presidential candidacy of Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.).

"The political environment is such that voters remain pessimistic about the direction of the country and the Republican Party in general. . . . Time is short," Cole said in a statement.

House leaders like John Boehner are already trying to co-opt Obama's "change" message for Republicans - which shows you how appealing McCain's message of less jobs and more wars is. Trying to ride the coattails of the opposition party's President doesn't seem to me like a winning strategy, either, but I'm not going to spend too much time trying to help the GOP out with one. "Don't call yourself Republicans and/or impeach Bush" spring to mind. Oh, and change your leadership - that's change you deserve!

Will the election of Travis Childers, and self-described "conservative Democrats," have a positive effect on progressive policy? First, Childers got himself elected on getting out of Iraq, fully funding education and "taking care of his mother" who has breast cancer. Those aren't incompatible issues with mainstream Democratic issues. In addition, the House is almost totally a majoritarian body. Nancy Pelosi has kept her caucus almost 90% of the time because she brings up for vote those bills that can hold the caucus. The more Congresscritters in the caucus, the more confidence she can have to hold the votes. So it doesn't matter exactly what Travis Childers supports, but what Pelosi can get away with. I'd like to see her try and get away with more, but with the Emanuel/Hoyer faction acting as saboteurs that's not going to happen.

But the other thing is that politicians move with their electorate. By electing progressives in the House - which we have a legitimate chance to do in November - the caucus will move to the left, particularly on economic grounds (both Childers and Don Cazayoux have strains of economic populism). And as the country goes center-left, politicians will strive to keep up.

MS-01: Will Democrats Pull Off Another Special Election? UPDATE: YES

Swing State Project is following the special election in Mississippi tonight, and so far with a third of the vote in, Democrat Travis Childers is leading by 10 points over Greg Davis. Childers is apparently outperforming his results in the last round of voting thus far, and he actually won that one by 49%-46%, so we could see history in the making.

(UPDATE: now it's 6 points. The Clarion-Ledger has the most updated numbers.)

The only news that came out of this today was that Davis apparently supported putting up a statue of Confederate leader and KKK founder Nathan Bedford Forrest in his hometown, which he denied, but which contemporary news accounts show to be true. But in truth that didn't affect anything today. This seat, won by Bush with 62% of the vote in 2004, is so close right now because Republicans are poison in this day and age.

UPDATE II: About halfway through, and Childers is up by 8 points and 3,500 votes. There are a lot of Davis-friendly precincts out, so I can't say Childers has this yet. But it's looking good.

Have to head out, I'll update this later.

UPDATE III: We did it. Once again, Republicans in a deep red seat went all-out to win, through everything they had at the Democrat, tried to tie him to Jeremiah Wright and Barack Obama and all the rest, and they... lost. And lost significantly, by 8 points in an R+10 district.

Repeat it with me, Republicans are poison.

Swing State Project has a funny "draft the NRCC press release" contest on this one. They did better than the actual one. Tom Cole has finally figured out that Republicans are poison, and he doesn't even try to spin these results.

Amazing.

UPDATE IV: Turns out Scott Kleeb won his Nebraska Senate primary too. What a great night all around.

Republicans Losing All Hope Update

Yes, you're going to see a thumpin' provided by Hillary Clinton to Barack Obama in West Virginia today. But there are some other notable elections being held across the country today, including one that could really send Republicans into a tailspin.

In Nebraska, the Senate primary to replace the seat held by Chuck Hagel features a Democratic contest between former Republican Tony Raimondo and netroots hero Scott Kleeb. Here's Kleeb's closing ad, which has a whiff of Obama's message to it:



Jane Fleming Kleeb, the candidate's wife, is posting all day from her MTV blog about the race. Kleeb is a strong candidate and a nice guy who could actually make Nebraska competitive. At the least he should beat self-funding Republican in sheep's clothing Tony Raimondo.

But the big race is in Mississippi, where Democrat Travis Childers may end up beating Republican Greg Davis in a special election. This is a very Republican seat, and a loss here would really signal the disgust with which the entire country sees the GOP. The country is nearly united in its belief that the country is seriously on the wrong track, and Republicans are very late to the game in recognizing this. Indeed, even while they are desperately trying to rebrand the party as offering "change you deserve" (is that a threat?), a slogan that's actually already used for an antidepressant, the Republicans are trying to win in Mississippi by using the same old tired techniques of demonization.

Hoping to hang on to a Congressional seat in a tight special election here on Tuesday, Republicans in this mostly white and very conservative district are trying to make the vote more a referendum on Senator Barack Obama than on the candidates themselves.

In advertisements and speeches, Republicans have repeatedly associated Travis Childers, the white Democrat threatening to take the seat away from the Republican Party, with Mr. Obama. Republicans say Mr. Obama’s liberal values are out of place in the district. But for many Democratic veterans here, the tactic is a throwback to the old and unwelcome politics of race, a standby in Mississippi campaigning.

Former Gov. William Winter, a Democrat, expressed shock at the current campaign.

“I am appalled that this blatant appeal to racial prejudice is still being employed,” said Mr. Winter, who lost the 1967 governor’s race after his segregationist opponent circulated handbills showing blacks listening to one of his speeches. Mr. Winter went on to win the governor’s office 12 years later.

The new branding is just a cover for this conduct, which is way too explicit. Republicans have no ideas to move the country and simply want to tell voters the horrors of what the Democrats would present. I'm convinced that's not a victory strategy given what we face in this country right now, and we'll see if I'm right tonight in MS-01.

(The other part of that WaPo poll shows Obama up 51-44 over McCain, and this is right at the beginning of him actually campaigning in the general election. 44 is the high-water mark for McCain, in my view - he hasn't gotten very far past it in any national poll.)

Republicans Using Cheney To Fix Cheney Problem

It's kind of a bad sign when you're trying to save a ridiculously Republican seat in a special election and your ace in the hole is Dick Cheney. Fourthbranch can still raise money, but it's not like he's ever been an enthusiastic campaigner - he's not much for, you know, people.

But this is of course where the GOP stands right now - in trouble of losing House races in the whitest areas of Mississippi - and starting to acknowledge their historically bad position.

The stakes in the 1st District special election couldn't be higher, strategically or symbolically. The loss of a traditionally GOP seat to a Democrat would be the third in a special election this spring and the second in the Deep South after the May 3 victory of Rep. Don Cazayoux (D-La.).

Rank-and-file Republicans say that would force a day of reckoning for their leadership.

"When you connect three dots in anything, that's a bad thing. This connects the dots. At that point, everybody's got to come together and have a come-to-Jesus meeting," said Rep. Tom Davis (R-Va.), a retiring centrist who will help form a new advisory panel at the National Republican Congressional Committee.

"It's a time of sober reflection and, to some extent, resolve. I hope these special elections are a wake-up call," said Rep. Jeb Hensarling (R-Tex.), the leader of the conservative Republican Study Committee.

The fact that Dick Friggin' Cheney is being sent on the campaign trail is a sign that the wake-up call is so far not being heard. Same with this little quip by Roy Blunt on one of the Sunday shows:

BLITZER: When it comes to domestic economic issues, what is the major difference between President Bush's policies, what he wants to do, and what John McCain would do if he were president?

BLUNT: Well, I think what John McCain wants to do is continue these pro-growth tax policies that our friends on the other side have been talking...

(CROSSTALK)

BLITZER: But that's what President Bush wants to do too.

BLUNT: And there is nothing wrong with that. There is nothing wrong with that.

BLITZER: So it would be in effect a third Bush term when it came to pro-growth tax policies?

BLUNT: It would be. I think it would be. And I think that's a good thing.

The same with the outside Republican allies, airing ads in Senate primaries attacking Republicans who favor SCHIP.

They don't seem to recognize that this is their entire PROBLEM with the electorate - Bush's failed economic plans, Cheney's imperialist neoconservatism, Republican obstruction on popular initiatives like children's health care. This is WHY they're in the hole they're in - it's unlikely employing the SAME methods will get them out of it. This is why practically no Republican is safe in November. This is why Republicans who look forthrightly at the situation will rally to the Democratic position. This is why there's the chance of a realignment election.

We're Going To Win A House Race In Deep Red Louisiana Today

While the traditional media ping-pongs back and forth between Jeremiah Wright and Miley Cyrus, they're missing the fundamental political story of 2008: George Bush broke the Republican Party and nobody's going to be able to put it back together.

There is no way that a Democrat should have a chance in the 6th district of Louisiana. But Don Cazayoux has a nine-point lead over Woody Jenkins in the latest poll headed into today's special election. George Bush got 59% of the vote here in 2004. Today, we're going to flip this seat blue. Swing State Project will have the results tonight.

And that's not the only seat where we're seeing such a phenomenon. In MS-01, which is normally just as Republican, Travis Childers may be able to take that seat as well. The DCCC is putting a lot of money into that race, almost twice that of the Republicans, suggesting that it's very close.

There are no more Republican districts. George Bush is incredibly disliked and he's dragging down the whole party.

WASHINGTON - Sen. Barack Obama’s ties to the Rev. Jeremiah Wright could hurt his presidential hopes. So could his comment about “bitter” small-town America clinging to guns and religion. And Americans might question Sen. Hillary Clinton’s honesty and trustworthiness.

But according to the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, the bigger problem appears to be John McCain's ties to President Bush.

In the survey, 43 percent of registered voters say they have major concerns that McCain is too closely aligned with the current administration.

Got that? George Bush is the problem. I fully expect the traditional media to now ask questions every day whether McCain will disown or divorce Bush, how Bush and McCain are like Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde, and how Bush's latest press appearance re-opened the McCain-Bush wound.

Oh wait, I don't expect that.

In fact, I don't expect them to notice that red Louisiana has turned against Republicans.

This Week In Nielsen Ratings Imitating Life

Hysterical.

President Bush's guest appearance in support of an Iraq War veteran on Monday night's "Deal or No Deal" didn't bring much luck to the contestant -- or the show.

The NBC game show matched its lowest Monday rating ever despite the much-publicized visit by the commander-in-chief.

Bush is not just hated, but hated on a historical level, with the highest disapproval rating since the start of modern polling. He is destroying the GOP from within; look at the race down in Mississippi last night, where Democrats positioned themselves to take a seat that's R+10.

What's funny is that Bush said on this Deal or No Deal appearance that "I'm just happy to be on anything that's highly-rated."

Not anymore, dinkus.

Rachel Maddow on Friedman Units

Rachel Maddow basically just namechecked Atrios on MSNBC and called the race a series of Friedman Units, where pundits and media types say "the next primary will be over!" and then nothing happens. This was the ultimate inconclusive result, the most annoying result, in Pennsylvania, 30-40 million to get a 10-point win with probably less than ten delegates in Clinton's favor. The media has a real desire to keep this thing going and hype up the "this is it!" nature of the next primary, and then nothing happens. I'm with Matt Yglesias - this has to end. There really isn't a whole lot more information that superdelegates are going to get. There's a saturation level that has been reached. We know the strengths and weaknesses of these candidates. We know what demographics they win against one another and what demos they lose. About half the Democrats in the country like Clinton and half like Obama. She's from the Northeast and he's from the Midwest, and they get a tilt in their favor in each of those regions. He can't knock her out because she's really good at campaigning, and she was swamped by him early because he's really good at campaigning. The level of competition is far higher here than it will be in the fall against John McCain, actually. So the superdelegates can make their choice. They could make it today.

And I agree with Stoller, we're going to be fine. Democrats forced a runoff, and came within a hair's breadth of winning, in a seat in the middle of Mississippi (MS-01) tonight, an R+10 seat. The "Clinton/Obama voters will vote for McCain if their guy doesn't win" polling is about as relevant in the middle of a hotly contested primary as a national Giuliani-Richardson head-to-head. There were high numbers for disafffected McCain supporters voting for Gore over Bush at the time. This is essentially a Parliamentary country among core party members, the kind who vote in primaries.

Obama lost the plot in the last several weeks, and Clinton capitalized with a fairly divisive campaign. He needs to get back on his feet in two favorable states. Obama has not lost a single state that shares a significant border with his home state of Illinois (Iowa, Wisconsin, Missouri). His speech tonight was pretty much a replay of his 2004 DNC keynote, and he's trying to return to the themes on which he won early. If he wins those two states it will be very significant. But the superdelegates need to come out from under the rocks where they're hiding and end this.

LA-06: Freedom's Watch To The Rescue

So here's another very Republican seat that an outside organization has to dig deepto try and save for the GOP.

Freedom’s Watch, a conservative advocacy group founded by former Bush administration officials last year, has bought advertising time on Baton Rouge television stations today – signaling a willingness for the upstart organization to help Congressional Republicans hang onto some of their more vulnerable seats.

The ad, scheduled to begin airing tomorrow, attacks state Rep. Don Cazayoux, the Democratic nominee running for former Rep. Richard Baker’s (R-La.) seat. Cazayoux is facing former GOP state Rep. Woody Jenkins in the May 3 special election.

This marks the second foray by Freedom’s Watch into a contested Congressional campaign. The group spent about $86,000 earlier in the year in a Ohio special election on behalf of now-Rep. Bob Latta (R-Ohio)

But it stayed on the sidelines as Jim Oberweis lost to now-Rep. Bill Foster (D-Ill.) in the solidly Republican district of former House Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.) – which raised questions on how active the group will be in spending money in hotly-contested Congressional campaigns.

If LA-06 is in trouble, which it most certainly is (in the poll cited in the story, Democrat Don Cazayoux leads by seven points), then Freedom's Watch doesn't have nearly enough cash to save the GOP's butt. That presages about 100 seats up for grabs in November. Anyway, Freedom's Watch is crippled by internal fighting and incompetence, and isn't likely to be anyone's savior, anyway. The right keeps setting up these organizations as "our answer to MoveOn" and doesn't empower citizens to get involved with them, preferring to run them from the top down, and then they wonder why they fizzle. This Louisiana race isn't only one which tests the Republican Party's credibility, but Freedom's Watch's as well.

... MS-01 is also looking to be a tossup, and the residual effect of a contested Presidential primary is actually enhancing the possibilities for Travis Childers here.

The wild card in the races to succeed Wicker may be turnout. The highly competitive contest for the Democratic presidential nomination between Sens. Barack Obama of Illinois and Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York has energized the Democratic voting base widely across the country, and Mississippi’s 1st District has not been immune to that. Democratic voters outnumbered Republican voters in the 1st District primary and runoff for November’s general election contest.

We also saw that in 6 of the 19 seats held by Republicans in California. Republicans are in so much trouble and they surely know it.

Prospects in the House

The other day I wrote about possibilities for Democratic gains in the US Senate. Today it's time to look at the House. Obviously it'd be a stretch to plot out all 435 races as opposed to the more manageable 35 in the Senate. But there are some trends that look extremely encouraging for Democrats.

The first place to look is at the fact that over 30 House Republicans have retired this cycle, which is over 15% of their entire delegation. This is not the stuff of coincidences; it's borne out of a belief by these Republicans that they have no shot at regaining the majority and would rather not stick around in the minority. Thus, many of the seats that the Republicans are "targeting" this year happen to be open seats abandoned by Republicans. As a case in point, brownsox takes a look at the 10 latest members of the NRCC's "Regain Our Majority Program."

ROMP 2008 has recently released the third instalment in its list of candidates favored for assistance, the first update to their list in calendar year 2008. I found it rather instructive as to GOP priorities, and I've posted it below:

Rep. Michelle Bachmann, MN-06
Rep. Vito Fossella, NY-13
Rep. Sam Graves, MO-06
Rep. Ric Keller, FL-08
Anne Northup, KY-03
Erik Paulsen, MN-03
Rep. Bill Sali, ID-01
Rep. Jean Schmidt, OH-02
Rep. Tim Walberg, MI-07
Darren White, NM-01

Notice that this ROMP program, ostensibly focused on regaining the Republican majority, seems disproportionately tilted towards protecting incumbent Republican Reps. In fact, out of these 10 districts where the elephants hope to ROMP, exactly one is currently held by a Democrat, John Yarmuth of Kentucky's 3rd District.

I find this to be a novel and fascinating method of Regaining Their Majority; by not targeting Democratic-held seats. I wish them the best of luck with this; I'm sure it's going to work out just splendidly. Keep avoiding the Dem-held seats, and they oughta have that ol' majority back in no time flat.

I noticed something similiar in this Wall Street Journal article hyping 17 Iraq war vets running as Republicans. Only the large majority of them are running in Republican open seats, or challenging incumbents in primaries! This is not the path to winning a majority.

By contrast, Democrats are targeting those Republican open seats as well as races where they came up just short in 2006, like Larry Kissell in NC-08 and Darcy Burner in WA-08. The DCCC has listed 59 seats they're taking a look at this cycle, and there are probably several others in addition to that. Add to this that the D-Trip has a huge financial advantage, and they'll be able to spread the field in a big way. Overall, the prospects are pretty bright for gaining additional seats. In fact, some of that might happen right away, in special elections in LA-06 and MS-01. That's right, in Republican-leaning seats in Louisiana and Mississippi, Democrats are dead even in polling. If we take either of them, it could be a big year.