Campaign Update: CA-10, CA-03, CA-47, CA-50

The Internet moves at, well, Internet speed, so parts of my House race roundup were already out of date or incomplete by the time I published it. So here's an update on a few races.

• CA-10: John Garamendi announced a significant series of national labor endorsements for the upcoming CA-10 race, despite Mark DeSaulnier having locked up the Contra Costa County Central Labor Committee endorsement and the local Building Trades (which cover almost 100 local unions) and chairing the Senate Labor Committee. They include:

AFSCME: American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees
CNA: California Nurses Association
CFT: California Federation of Teachers
UFCW: United Food & Commercial Workers
CSEA: California School Employees Association
Laborers International Union of North America
International Union of Operating Engineers
CWA: Communication Workers of America

Many of those can provide PAC money, resources and support to Garamendi, leveling the playing field in a race where DeSaulnier captured all the early endorsements.

• CA-03: I passed on the rumor about Phil Angelides and CA-03 in my roundup, but local blogger Randy Bayne dismisses that report and notes that Elk Grove City Councilman Gary Davis will likely run, having met with the DCCC and begun the process of putting a team together. I don't agree with Bayne that a contested primary (Dr. Amerish Bera has also announced) would impact negatively on the race. Especially when the candidates have low name ID, a primary can increase their public profile and show them to be a "winner" in front of the district, at the end. Momentum can build. Primaries don't necessarily have to be nasty and debilitating, and I fail to understand why anyone would reject them out of hand.

Incidentally, I never took much stock in the rumor about Angelides, I simply thought it would be a decent line of inquiry, given his name ID, fundraising ability and progressive profile.

CA-47: One potential challenge to a Democratic incumbent I overlooked yesterday was Van Tran's run against Loretta Sanchez, profiled in Politico.

On the heels of an election marked by a dismal performance among Asian voters, top Republicans are aggressively recruiting California Assemblyman Van Tran, a Vietnamese-American, to challenge Rep. Loretta Sanchez (D-Calif.) next year.

If elected, Tran would be the second Vietnamese-American in Congress, after Rep. Anh “Joseph” Cao (R-La.), who won his seat in a 2008 election.

Tran has already been feted at the National Republican Congressional Committee’s March fundraising dinner as a guest of the committee’s recruitment chairman, Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), and he was encouraged to run by House Minority Leader John Boehner and Minority Whip Eric Cantor. He also made a trip to Washington after last November’s election to meet with officials from the NRCC.

Even Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) has assisted in the recruitment process, meeting with Tran and offering support for any potential candidacy. Tran was an outspoken backer of McCain’s 2008 presidential campaign and helped him carry Orange County over Mitt Romney in the Republican presidential primary.

What the story fails to mention is that, not only does Tran not have full support among the Vietnamese community in the district, not only does Loretta Sanchez have experience easily defeating Vietnamese challengers, but Tran didn't even do that well in his own Assembly race last year, winning over 55% of the vote against Ken Arnold. If Tran is one of the Republicans' top recruits, they're in even bigger trouble than I thought. Incidentally, Sanchez' voting record has greatly improved over the past couple years.

• CA-50: I should have cited Francine Busby's Firedoglake chat from a couple weeks ago. I don't think I agree with her on this, though:

I’ve alway said that the Latino voters have to organize register and educate from within their own community. I see more activism and organizing going on than I did before. In fact, I will be attending a meeting on Monday of the reconstituted Latino American Democratic Club in Oceanside. We may have a strong Latina running for a state office who can rally the base. Also, Bilbray is their worst nightmare, so I expect that to motivate them to get out to vote. I reach out to leaders in the community as much as possible to maintain good communications and understanding.

Outreach consists of more than "hopefully they'll self-organize." You need to actually engage the Latino community instead of hoping some other local candidate can do it for you. Not a good sign.

MS-01: Will Democrats Pull Off Another Special Election? UPDATE: YES

Swing State Project is following the special election in Mississippi tonight, and so far with a third of the vote in, Democrat Travis Childers is leading by 10 points over Greg Davis. Childers is apparently outperforming his results in the last round of voting thus far, and he actually won that one by 49%-46%, so we could see history in the making.

(UPDATE: now it's 6 points. The Clarion-Ledger has the most updated numbers.)

The only news that came out of this today was that Davis apparently supported putting up a statue of Confederate leader and KKK founder Nathan Bedford Forrest in his hometown, which he denied, but which contemporary news accounts show to be true. But in truth that didn't affect anything today. This seat, won by Bush with 62% of the vote in 2004, is so close right now because Republicans are poison in this day and age.

UPDATE II: About halfway through, and Childers is up by 8 points and 3,500 votes. There are a lot of Davis-friendly precincts out, so I can't say Childers has this yet. But it's looking good.

Have to head out, I'll update this later.

UPDATE III: We did it. Once again, Republicans in a deep red seat went all-out to win, through everything they had at the Democrat, tried to tie him to Jeremiah Wright and Barack Obama and all the rest, and they... lost. And lost significantly, by 8 points in an R+10 district.

Repeat it with me, Republicans are poison.

Swing State Project has a funny "draft the NRCC press release" contest on this one. They did better than the actual one. Tom Cole has finally figured out that Republicans are poison, and he doesn't even try to spin these results.

Amazing.

UPDATE IV: Turns out Scott Kleeb won his Nebraska Senate primary too. What a great night all around.

Republicans Losing All Hope Update

Yes, you're going to see a thumpin' provided by Hillary Clinton to Barack Obama in West Virginia today. But there are some other notable elections being held across the country today, including one that could really send Republicans into a tailspin.

In Nebraska, the Senate primary to replace the seat held by Chuck Hagel features a Democratic contest between former Republican Tony Raimondo and netroots hero Scott Kleeb. Here's Kleeb's closing ad, which has a whiff of Obama's message to it:



Jane Fleming Kleeb, the candidate's wife, is posting all day from her MTV blog about the race. Kleeb is a strong candidate and a nice guy who could actually make Nebraska competitive. At the least he should beat self-funding Republican in sheep's clothing Tony Raimondo.

But the big race is in Mississippi, where Democrat Travis Childers may end up beating Republican Greg Davis in a special election. This is a very Republican seat, and a loss here would really signal the disgust with which the entire country sees the GOP. The country is nearly united in its belief that the country is seriously on the wrong track, and Republicans are very late to the game in recognizing this. Indeed, even while they are desperately trying to rebrand the party as offering "change you deserve" (is that a threat?), a slogan that's actually already used for an antidepressant, the Republicans are trying to win in Mississippi by using the same old tired techniques of demonization.

Hoping to hang on to a Congressional seat in a tight special election here on Tuesday, Republicans in this mostly white and very conservative district are trying to make the vote more a referendum on Senator Barack Obama than on the candidates themselves.

In advertisements and speeches, Republicans have repeatedly associated Travis Childers, the white Democrat threatening to take the seat away from the Republican Party, with Mr. Obama. Republicans say Mr. Obama’s liberal values are out of place in the district. But for many Democratic veterans here, the tactic is a throwback to the old and unwelcome politics of race, a standby in Mississippi campaigning.

Former Gov. William Winter, a Democrat, expressed shock at the current campaign.

“I am appalled that this blatant appeal to racial prejudice is still being employed,” said Mr. Winter, who lost the 1967 governor’s race after his segregationist opponent circulated handbills showing blacks listening to one of his speeches. Mr. Winter went on to win the governor’s office 12 years later.

The new branding is just a cover for this conduct, which is way too explicit. Republicans have no ideas to move the country and simply want to tell voters the horrors of what the Democrats would present. I'm convinced that's not a victory strategy given what we face in this country right now, and we'll see if I'm right tonight in MS-01.

(The other part of that WaPo poll shows Obama up 51-44 over McCain, and this is right at the beginning of him actually campaigning in the general election. 44 is the high-water mark for McCain, in my view - he hasn't gotten very far past it in any national poll.)