Prospects in the Senate

Eric Kleefeld did a nice analysis of the state of play in the Senate, where 23 Republican seats will be up for grabs in November, as opposed to just 12 Democratic seats. Of those 12, really only one of them, Mary Landrieu's seat in Louisiana, is seriously challenged, whereas as many as a dozen or even more Republican seats could be in play. Here's the initial list that Kleefeld references:

State GOP Candidate Dem Candidate Outlook
Alaska Ted Stevens Mark Begich Leans GOP
Colorado Bob Schaffer Mark Udall Tossup
Louisiana John Kennedy Mary Landrieu Tossup
Maine Susan Collins Tom Allen Leans GOP
Minnesota Norm Coleman Al Franken Tossup
Mississippi Roger Wicker Ronnie Musgrove Likely GOP
New Hampshire John Sununu Jeanne Shaheen Leans Dem
New Mexico TBD Tom Udall Leans Dem
Oregon Gordon Smith TBD Leans GOP
Virginia Jim Gilmore Mark Warner Likely Dem

In a follow-up post, Chuck Schumer maintains that we have leads in five seats currently, in Virginia, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Colorado and Alaska, where Senator "Series of Tubes" Ted Stevens is in legitimate trouble against Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich. Schumer also says we have a shot in Oregon, Minnesota and Maine. But there are other states where Republicans will at least have to spend a little money. Rick Noriega will make John Cornyn work in Texas, for example. We have good candidates like Greg Fischer in Kentucky, Scott Kleeb in Nebraska, Andrew Rice in Oklahoma, Ronnie Musgrove in Mississippi, Larry LaRocco in Idaho, Jim Neal in North Carolina and even Jim Slattery in Kansas. Schumer is claiming that we'll have good candidates in 17 of those 23 races, and Schumer's idea of a "good candidate" is one that is worth spending DSCC money on. That means that the field is very spread out, and Republicans will have a lot to defend.

I don't think people have a sense of just how dire it is for Republicans here. I think you saw a piece of it in many Republicans' combative stances in the Petraeus/Crocker hearings. Iraq is an anvil, and their attempts to spin themselves as independent voices is simply at odds with the reality of them being reliable rubber stamps. Even Oregon's Gordon Smith, who has voted in favor of withdrawal on more than one occasion, is twisting himself in knots trying to appeal both antiwar independents and hardcore Republicans, claiming that he practically authored the Responsible Plan to End the War while being unable to endorse it and turn his back on the base. I fully expect most of these Democratic Senate candidates to use Iraq as a vice and constrict their opponents inside their own rhetoric and spin.

Senate Guru has the best day-to-day information on these races.