The Rump Party

This DKos poll about secession just about sums up the state of the Republican Party these days.

Do you think Texas would be better off as an independent nation or as part of the United States of America?

US: 61
Independent nation: 35

Democrats: US 82, Ind 15
Republicans: US 48, Ind 48
Independents: US 55, Ind 40

Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Rick Perry's suggestion that Texas may need to leave the United States?

Approve: 37
Disapprove: 58

Democrats: Approve 16, Disapprove 80
Republicans: Approve 51, Disapprove 44
Independents: Approve 43, Disapprove 50

I mean, this is the definition of patriotism. And you have half of Texas Republicans who would rather split from the union than live in a hellscape where the top marginal tax rate is several points below what it was under Ronald Reagan. They are officially the Party of Crazy, and only grow worse with each day. Texan John Cornyn (wonder what side of the divide he lands on) is actively encouraging far-right Pat Toomey in Pennsylvania, someone who cannot possibly win a primary. Yglesias writes:

This is all reminiscent of the 2008 Virginia Senate race, which I think never got enough attention. You had a longstanding conservative state that had been trending blue. And you had a very strong Democratic candidate in Mark Warner. And you had one and only one possible Republican nominee who would have stood a chance to beat Warner in moderate Representative Tom Davis. But not only did the Virginia GOP decline to nominate Davis, they actually changed the rules by which the nominee is picked to stack the deck against Davis. The result was a totally noncompetitive senate race. The Republicans just fronted the Democrats a Republican-held Senate seat. And Davis decided to retire, thus leaving his House seat open to be nabbed by a Democrat as well. It was staggeringly self-defeating move. And now they’re set to do it again in Pennsylvania

It seems a bit like overconfidence, but how could a movement that’s clearly on the ropes be feeling overconfident.

Overconfident... or just in a death spiral.

Senate Campaign Report

Let's see what's happening in the races to move into that august body.

• VA - Mark Warner, who's all but assured of beating Jim Gilmore to become the next Senator from Virginia, will be the keynote speaker at the Democratic National Convention in two weeks. There are two virtual locks for pickups on the Democratic side this year - Warner, a centrist, and Tom Udall, a progressive from New Mexico. Picking the former to deliver the keynote isn't exactly surprising, but it's a little depressing.

• MN - I really liked this YouTube debate - a real YouTube debate, where the questions and answers come from Web video - between Al Franken and Norm Coleman. I thought Franken made some excellent points and the issues were handled with an appropriate amount of seriousness. But this election in Minnesota has been more about silliness than seriousness, with allegations of improper payments of taxes and untoward language in jokes among the smears being lobbed at Franken. Now Coleman is getting a taste of this, as his sweetheart lease at a lobbyist friend's house in DC is being questioned.

Sen. Norm Coleman didn't have a lease for the first year he rented a garden-level bedroom in an upper-bracket Capitol Hill row house owned by a longtime friend and Republican operative.

In addition, Coleman didn't make a payment for utilities for the living space until last month, under a verbal agreement he had with his landlord -- St. Paul businessman Jeff Larson -- to settle up after a year in residence, Coleman campaign manager Cullen Sheehan said.

Coleman's Washington living arrangements, first reported in a National Journal article in June, have been a target of criticism by DFL officials and DFL election opponent Al Franken.

I'd rather stay on the issues in a perfect world, but when you're slimed like this you have to fight back. Good for Al Franken.

• AK - You know things are going bad for Ted Stevens when the governore who appointed him to the seat thinks his career is over.

• OR - Gordon Smith, in his time-honored tradition of painting himself as a moderate despite voting strongly with Republicans for the last six years, has dropped his state co-chairmanship for John McCain's election campaign. Very convenient, coming at a time when Smith is featuring Barack Obama and John Kerry in TV ads.

By the way, I've been remiss in mentioning that I had the chance to meet Jeff Merkley, Smith's opponent in Oregon, at an event last week. Merkley's an impressive guy - a former exchange student in the poorest parts of Ghana, a nuclear freeze activist who eventually worked in the Defense Department, the Democratic leader in the Oregon House who led them back into the majority and worked hard to pass a solid progressive agenda. Merkley and his family will have no health care after January - his wife went part-time during the election campaign and lost her coverage, and Merkley's coverage with the state will run out after he is replaced in the state House. This is someone who's really running for health care, and I found him to be intelligent, engaging and progressive on the issues. Oregon is really the tipping point - it will make the difference between a potential 5-seat Democratic pickup and something much larger.

• NC - The DSCC is pouring money into this race, attacking Elizabeth Dole in her battle against State Sen. Kay Hagan. I confess to not being Hagan's biggest fan, but Dole is a rubber stamp and a terrible legislator.

• NJ - The Republicans are bugging out of this race, pitting Sen. Frank Lautenberg against Dick Zimmer. Practically every year, Republicans pour money into New Jersey and come out with nothing. They appear to have learned their lesson. Republicans literally have only one pickup opportunity this cycle, in Louisiana.

...Senate Guru is always the best source for Senate campaign news.

Prospects in the Senate

Eric Kleefeld did a nice analysis of the state of play in the Senate, where 23 Republican seats will be up for grabs in November, as opposed to just 12 Democratic seats. Of those 12, really only one of them, Mary Landrieu's seat in Louisiana, is seriously challenged, whereas as many as a dozen or even more Republican seats could be in play. Here's the initial list that Kleefeld references:

State GOP Candidate Dem Candidate Outlook
Alaska Ted Stevens Mark Begich Leans GOP
Colorado Bob Schaffer Mark Udall Tossup
Louisiana John Kennedy Mary Landrieu Tossup
Maine Susan Collins Tom Allen Leans GOP
Minnesota Norm Coleman Al Franken Tossup
Mississippi Roger Wicker Ronnie Musgrove Likely GOP
New Hampshire John Sununu Jeanne Shaheen Leans Dem
New Mexico TBD Tom Udall Leans Dem
Oregon Gordon Smith TBD Leans GOP
Virginia Jim Gilmore Mark Warner Likely Dem

In a follow-up post, Chuck Schumer maintains that we have leads in five seats currently, in Virginia, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Colorado and Alaska, where Senator "Series of Tubes" Ted Stevens is in legitimate trouble against Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich. Schumer also says we have a shot in Oregon, Minnesota and Maine. But there are other states where Republicans will at least have to spend a little money. Rick Noriega will make John Cornyn work in Texas, for example. We have good candidates like Greg Fischer in Kentucky, Scott Kleeb in Nebraska, Andrew Rice in Oklahoma, Ronnie Musgrove in Mississippi, Larry LaRocco in Idaho, Jim Neal in North Carolina and even Jim Slattery in Kansas. Schumer is claiming that we'll have good candidates in 17 of those 23 races, and Schumer's idea of a "good candidate" is one that is worth spending DSCC money on. That means that the field is very spread out, and Republicans will have a lot to defend.

I don't think people have a sense of just how dire it is for Republicans here. I think you saw a piece of it in many Republicans' combative stances in the Petraeus/Crocker hearings. Iraq is an anvil, and their attempts to spin themselves as independent voices is simply at odds with the reality of them being reliable rubber stamps. Even Oregon's Gordon Smith, who has voted in favor of withdrawal on more than one occasion, is twisting himself in knots trying to appeal both antiwar independents and hardcore Republicans, claiming that he practically authored the Responsible Plan to End the War while being unable to endorse it and turn his back on the base. I fully expect most of these Democratic Senate candidates to use Iraq as a vice and constrict their opponents inside their own rhetoric and spin.

Senate Guru has the best day-to-day information on these races.

The Warner Legacy

In Virginia, from John to Mark.



A very popular governor may end up facing the governor he replaced, Jim Gilmore, under whose "leadership" Virginia was mired in debt. Warner turned that around and ended up wildly popular. The thought of Warner getting to re-run the 1997 governor's race after Virginians have seen that his methods were obviously superior gets me giddy. Tom Davis, a faux-moderate Congressman from the Northern VA area, is also looking to get in the race. So Republicans have a bloody primary and Warner gets to run the general election right now.

If you look at the Senate landscape, Virginia, Colorado and New Hampshire look pretty good right now, and Minnesota, Maine and Oregon will be competitive. Nebraska can be a win if we get the right candidate, and Ted Stevens is in a lot of legal trouble in Alaska that could endanger THAT seat. Not to mention an open seat in Idaho, falling approval ratings for Liddy Dole in North Carolina and Pete Domenici in New Mexico and John Cornyn in Texas...

I'd rather be in the Democratic position than the Republican. And once again, Chuck Schumer gets his top recruit to run, which the NRSC has found impossible both this cycle and last. That speaks to long-term trends.

VA-SEN: Warner Announces His Retirement

As has long been rumored, John Warner (R-VA) will step down from the Senate in January 2009.

Among those jockeying for position: on the Democratic side, the popular former Governor and erstwhile Presidential candidate Mark Warner. The Republican field, on the other hand, is in a bit of disarray. Election Central has the skinny.

And stay tuned for a possible announcement from Larry Craig that he'll resign his Senate post.

VA-Sen: More Trouble for the GOP

This speculation is nothing new, but clearly the signs point to 80 year-old John Warner retiring instead of running for another term in 2008, and his stalling tactics are a way to get Tom Davis into the Republican nomination instead of a hard-core conservative:

Virginia Sen. John W. Warner has said little about whether he will run for re-election, but the 80-year-old Republican is giving clear indications that he will not return for another term and that his coyness is merely an attempt to help Rep. Thomas M. Davis III, a fellow Republican, replace him.

"There has been considerable discussion about the possibility that [Mr. Warner] might delay an announcement of candidacy, then announce he wasn't going to run, to allow Congressman Tom Davis to build up at the beginning of the campaigns, which would give Davis an advantage," said Morton C. Blackwell, chairman of the Virginia's Republican National Committee and leader of the conservative Leadership Institute.

If their Warner steps down, it's entirely possible that our Warner, the former Viriginia governor Mark, will run. And he is very popular, and would be a considerable favorite.

With Jeanne Shaheen being wooed to run in what would be a very good chance in New Hampshire, and Bob Kerrey possibly making a comeback in Nebraska, in addition to the good chances by Mark Udall in Colorado and Tom Allen in Maine, the Democrats look good to pick up some Senate seats in '08. Recruitment has taken a hit in Oregon and North Carolina, as popular Representatives like Peter DeFazio and Brad Miller didn't want to give up their new-found power in the House to take the step up and make a Senate challenge. Still, we're in decent shape.