MCSNBC Sez Dole's A Cooked Pineapple

In the closing days it looked like Kay Hagan would win, but that's an EARLY admission.



Dole not only lost the race, she lost her self-respect with that horrible "Godless" ad.

...Fox News CALLED IT for Kay Hagan. Another Senate pickup. Wow.

...Jeanne Shaheen also called over John Sununu. Three Senate pickups so far. Susan Collins won in Maine. Tom Allen just couldn't make that seat competitive.

Senate Picture

Here's what we're looking at heading into GOTV weekend. Virginia, New Mexico and Colorado are going to be walks - score two for the Udall family in the US Senate. New Hampshire and Alaska look good - I'm still worried about a Stevens backlash, but the polls are showing strong late movement against the convicted felon. Oregon is moving away from Gordon Smith, and I think Jeff Merkley's going to take that race.

So that's six seats, with 9 needed - really 10 due to the Lieberman factor - to get to the magic 60 votes (which isn't all that magic, as I've explained). There's North Carolina, where Elizabeth Dole has debased herself by releasing a second ad harping on Kay Hagan's fundraiser with "Godless Americans". It's really absurd, but she's going with it. And it appears to be backfiring.

As Elizabeth Dole released her second attack ad trying to use Kay Hagan’s faith to attack her, it’s clear that North Carolinians are not buying it. Every major newspaper in the state (listed below), her fellow Republicans and the North Carolina Council of Churches (letter below) agree – Elizabeth Dole’s ads are “indecent,” a “gross misrepresentation,” “worse than dishonest,” and “beyond the bounds of acceptable political disagreement.”

“The overwhelming reaction to this ad has been disgust – directed at Senator Dole – for stooping to this low and attacking a fellow Christian,” said Hagan Campaign Communications Director Colleen Flanagan. “Senator Dole knows Kay is a strong Christian, a former Sunday school teacher and a member of Greensboro’s First Presbyterian Church, and she knows that her advertisements are lies. But what North Carolinians know is that these kind of political attacks won’t create one good job or help turn our economy back around. These are the issues folks here are concerned about and looking for leadership on, and these are the issues that will decide this election.”

Yesterday the North Carolina Council of Churches sent a letter to Senator Dole asking her to remove her ad, saying, “As you no doubt know, Sen. Hagan is a faithful and active member and leader in the First Presbyterian Church of Greensboro. To say or even to suggest that that outstanding congregation has chosen a lay leader who doesn’t believe in God is appalling and should be offensive to churches and church leaders throughout the state.

I think this is going to hurt Dole enough to put a nail in her coffin.

Then there's Minnesota, which has had a crazy last week. Norm Coleman sued Al Franken for defamation of character (Hagan actually did the same to Dole over the "Godless" ad), while court documents showed that a CEO was pressured to give $75,000 to Coleman and his family. Coleman has shows flashes of being fabulously corrupt in this campaign (having his DC rent, his utilities, and his suits paid for by lobbyists and contributors), and this is part and parcel. There's more evidence on this particular case here. The presence of former Sen. Dean Barkley (he was appointed by Jesse Ventura to replace the late Paul Wellstone for his final two months in office) on the ticket as an independent makes this completely unpredictable. This is going to be the closest race of the night.

And finally, we have the race in Georgia, where a huge African-American turnout would appear to help progressive Democrat Jim Martin. But Saxby Chambliss says that can be a rallying cry.

The Republican is outwardly confident, but there's urgency in his voice as he tours North Georgia, trying to boost turnout in his predominately white base: "The other folks are voting," he bluntly tells supporters.

Just in case anyone was confused about who those "other folks" are, Chambliss gave this quote to the New York Times:

The development is not lost on Mr. Chambliss. "There has always been a rush to the polls by African-Americans early," he said at the square in Covington, a quick stop on a bus tour as the campaign entered its final week. He predicted the crowds of early voters would motivate Republicans to turn out. "It has also got our side energized, they see what is happening," he said.

Nice to see a sitting United States Senator all but yell "race war!"

The thing about Georgia is that the winner must get past 50% or there's a runoff. With a Libertarian and a couple minor-party candidates on the ballot, that's entirely possible. So we could have an election between Martin and Chambliss in December, with the prize of 60 votes in the Senate hanging in the balance.

Kentucky, Nebraska, Maine and Texas may also surprise, but it's unlikely. I think the above represents the top level of competitiveness.

...regarding Kentucky, this is disgusting and sleazy and I hope it backfires, even though Mitch McConnell is a scumbag in his own right.

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Here Come De Sludge, Here Come De Sludge

It's actually no different from how the Republicans have run this entire campaign - using smear campaigns to make the case that Barack Obama is somehow risky, radical, a terrorist, a Muslim, exotic, not like you or your family. The latest is that they're planting these stories in the newspaper - literally:

Citizens United, the conservative group headed by notorious Whitewater scandalmonger David Bossie, is distributing hundreds of thousands of DVDs attacking Barack Obama's associations with Jeremiah Wright and William Ayers in newspapers in Ohio, Nevada, and Florida this week, a group spokesperson confirms to us.

A reader in Ohio reports to us that she received a copy of the DVD, called "Hype: The Obama Effect," in her copy of the Columbus Dispatch this morning.

We checked in with Citizens United spokesperson Will Holley, who confirmed to us that the DVD was distributed in the Dispatch today, and will be disseminated in copies of the Cincinatti Enquirer and Plain Dealer tomorrow, followed by the Palm Beach Post and the Las Vegas Review Journal on Friday.

The wingers tried this before by shipping Obsession, a DVD designed to stoke fears about radical Islam. But this one is directly focused at Obama.

However, as ridiculous as the smears against Obama have been, some of the sludge being shoveled in the downticket races is even worse. Elizabeth Dole's desperate attempt to save her career is downright slanderous, not just to Kay Hagan but to atheists.

Dole's campaign has been calling attention to a Sept. 15 fundraiser that Hagan attended in Boston with author Wendy Kaminer and her husband, Woody Kaplan, who was on the advisory board of the Godless Americans political action committee and active in a group that promoted "secular" ideas.

The ad featuring Hagan airs a comment from one the organization’s leaders saying "There was no Jesus."

The announcer says "A leader of the Godless Americans PAC recently held a secret fundraiser in Kay Hagan’s honor."

"Godless Americans and Kay Hagan. She hid from cameras. Took godless money. What did Hagan promise in return?"

The best part of that story is the last line, "Recent polls have shown Hagan with a narrow lead over Dole." Well of course!

Kay Hagan is fighting back. She's a Sunday school teacher, for cryin' out loud. And the attack on "godlessness" evokes nothing so much as the 1940s. Apparently Liddy thinks she's running against Helen Gahagan Douglas.

Then there's outright assault.

On Friday, two Feder staffers approached Congressman Wolf in a public location to ask him some questions. Two different individuals who were accompanying Congressman Wolf (staffers? relatives? friends?) assaulted the Feder staffers, as you can see quite clearly in the video. The first Feder staffer was hit with a cane and then punched. The second staffer (as you will see on the video) was pinned to a wall and forcibly held there. All of this took place in the presence of Congressman Wolf, who stood by and did nothing to intervene.

The thug life has come to McCain-Palin rallies as well, but you knew that.

Fortunately, these clowns are suffering for their own attacks. Michelle Bachmann had almost a million dollars tossed at her from the netroots after her neo-McCarthyite rant. Robin Hayes in North Carolina said almost the same thing ("Liberals hate real Americans") and now he's losing to Larry Kissell. Scott Garrett connected his opponent, a RABBI, to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, and now Mike Bloomberg endorsed Rabbi Dennis Shulman. Every attack is having an equal and opposite reaction.

And us progressives have long memories. In 2002 Saxby Chambliss ran one of the most disgusting ads in recent memory, making a connection between Sen. Max Cleland (a war hero who left 3 limbs off the battlefield) and Osama bin Laden. Now, six years later, Chambliss is threatened in a race against progressive Jim Martin, and VoteVets is hammering him.



Payback's a bitch.

Total Sleaze - Not Just For John McCain Anymore!

I've been focused on the ugliness of the McCain campaign and their attack ads, mailers and robocalls. But I don't want to discount the efforts of any of his GOP allies.

Like Rep. Tom Feeney, who claims that his opponent Suzanne Kosmas basically let Mohammed Atta into the country in his latest ad ("She wanted driver's licenses for illegals and terrorists.")

Or Rep. Scott Garrett, who connects his opponent, Dennis Shulman, to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Please note: Shulman is a RABBI.

Or Sen. Elizabeth Dole, whose latest mailer claims that her opponent Kay Hagan will force the Boy Scouts to go all gay.

I don't think there isn't a place for contrast advertising. Here's a very tough one - and a good one - from Judy Baker:



The difference is that Baker's ad connects her opponent to the very real consequences of his policies, whereas these other mailers simply use fear to distract and divide - fear of terrorists, fear of Muslims, fear of homosexuals.

I guess that when you're bracing for a blowout, fear is all you've got left.

Voter displeasure with the war and economy, coupled with Sen. Barack Obama's popularity, has the House GOP running for cover. Even though polls have shown that Americans don't like congressional Democrats any more, a new internal GOP tally of House races suggests a Democratic rout that could keep the Republicans in the minority for decades. A document provided to Washington Whispers from a House GOP official shows that they could lose a net 34 seats. That means the Democrats would have a 270-165 advantage in the 111th Congress. In the Senate, Republicans expect to lose also but to keep up to 44 seats, ensuring their ability to stage a filibuster.

The Strange Death Of Republican America

The campaign arm of Senate Republicans just pulled out of Louisiana to focus on saving their seats in Georgia and Kentucky. Louisiana, where Karl Rove personally recruited a former Democrat to face Mary Landrieu, was the only Democratic-held seat where Senate Democrats were playing in 2008.

This guarantees not only that Democrats will keep the Senate, but that Republicans won't pick up one single solitary seat for the second campaign cycle in a row.

Meanwhile, some of the very Southern states where Republicans picked up their last seats, way back in 2004, are holding competitive races in 2008. The money is pouring into Georgia, where progressive Democrat Jim Martin is trying to unseat Saxby Chambliss. The early voting there has been so huge, with such a high black turnout, that Martin has an excellent chance. In North Carolina, listless Liddy Dole is in big trouble.

As economic turmoil has driven down support for Republican candidates in recent weeks, several polls have suggested that Mrs. Dole’s opponent, Kay R. Hagan, a relatively unknown state senator from Greensboro, has closed Mrs. Dole’s double-digit lead or even pulled ahead, and many analysts are now calling the race a tossup.

Ms. Hagan is a crucial part of the effort by Democrats to gain a 60-seat majority in the Senate, a margin that could limit Republican filibusters. From Nov. 16, 2007, to Oct. 5, the Democratic senatorial committee spent more than $4 million on advertising in North Carolina, more than in any other Senate race, according to TNS Media Intelligence/CMAG, a political data firm in Arlington, Va. The Democrats have reserved television time worth millions more.

The National Republican Senatorial Committee, which has less money, has also spent more in North Carolina than in any other state, $1.7 million. That disparity between parties is reversed when it comes to the candidates’ own treasuries. By the end of September, Mrs. Dole had raised $12.9 million, and Ms. Hagan, $4.8 million.

If Republicans need to pull out all the stops to win in Georgia and North Carolina, they're in worse shape than I thought. And it's not simply the economy, IMO; these are BAD lawmakers. Liddy Dole never spends a second in her home state and has no accomplishments. Saxby Chambliss is arguably worse. They were in the majority for four years and did nothing to distinguish themselves. When you are a robotic rubber stamp, there's no way to show leadership - you're spending all your time following. And I think people understand this.

The House And Senate Picture

Just wanted to update the look of things in the Congress (outside of California this time):

• MN-Sen: Al Franken has surged ahead of Norm Coleman and looks like he's going to take this one in Minnesota. The Coleman campaign tried to drive up Franken's negatives over the summer by scrutinizing some ticky-tack tax statements, all of which had very simple explanations. This turned out to be a fatal mistake considering all of the skeletons in Coleman's financial closet, especially all the gifts he receives from lobbyists and contributors - his rent, his utility bills, and even his CLOTHING. This led to an excruciating press conference where his spokesman was resigned to repeating "The Senator has reported ever gift he's ever received" over and over. Wow, what a flameout.

• AK-Sen: In Alaska, however, I'm not nearly as sure of this one as I was. The prosecution has been so incompetent in the Ted Stevens corruption case that the judge tossed out key evidence and the defense will again call for a mistrial. If Stevens is exonerated, whether through mistrial or acquittal, there will be a significant rebound in his poll numbers, and he's already nearly even right now. This ad from the DSCC is good, but I'm not sure it'll be good enough. I think Mark Begich is in some trouble.

• NC-Sen: VoteVets is back. They've revived their wildly successful body armor ad and set their sights on Elizabeth Dole. It's just as powerful as it was in 2006.



Liddy Dole is toast.

• ME-Sen: Interesting happenings in Maine. Susan Collins was popular enough for national Democrats to kind of leave the Tom Allen challenge for dead, but the twists and turns in the economic picture makes any Republican toxic. Sensing the changing winds, Planned Parenthood, which has endorsed Collins in the past as a bone to throw to a Republican for a couple good votes, turned around and endorsed Allen. Recent polls are tightening and there really could be a late rush.

• GA-Sen: I knew the polls were very close in Georgia, and nobody deserves to lose more than Saxby Chambliss, who unleashed that shameful ad in 2002 relating Max Cleland to Saxby Chambliss, but I didn't know a lot about Jim Martin the person. Turns out he's a progressive in Georgia:

With little money, but with a lot of gumption, energy, and a truly progressive message, Jim Martin has closed to a dead-heat in this race. He is pro-choice, pro-gay rights (supports ENDA and LLEA), a consumer advocate, committed civil libertarian (with ACLU awards for his efforts), opposes FISA telecom immunity, opposes the war in Iraq, is a strong environmentalist, a strong labor guy, a strong supporter of affirmative action, and so on. He is also a Vietnam vet, so perhaps he's destined for a Chambliss Special, but we can get his back. This is the kind of Democrat we can't even get in some Blue states, yet running on an explicitly progressive agenda, has a chance to represent the great state of Georgia while ousting the odious Chambliss at the same time.

If he can pull it off, it would be a clarion call that progressives can win anywhere and Democrats shouldn't be afraid of standing up for their policies.

• House of Reps.: I can't keep up with all the developments in the House - that's what Howie Klein is for. But what is clear is that the Republicans have a ton of seats to defend, more every day, and not a lot of cash to do it. That's why their campaign arm, the NRCC, is taking out an $8 million dollar loan to compete. Wait, House Republicans can GET A LOAN? In this credit market?

NC-Sen: Residual Effects

North Carolina is a dead toss-up at the Presidential level this year, but nobody has high hopes for the incumbent.

A poll out Friday shows Sen. Norm Coleman could now easily lose his Minnesota seat to comedian-turned-candidate Al Franken. A Colorado race that initially looked like a nail-biter has now broken decisively for the Democrats. A top official in the McCain camp told us Sen. Elizabeth Dole is virtually certain to lose in conservative North Carolina [...]

Top Republicans say they have no hope for Dole in North Carolina. “There’s no point in even counting the votes,” said a top McCain official.

North Carolina is being lumped into the same column as Alaska, New Hampshire and Oregon in the second tier of winnable Democratic seats (Colorado, Virginia and New Mexico are in the first tier and are pretty safe to flip to the Dems). Why? Ed Cone explains why Elizabeth Dole's days are numbered.

--Dole has disappointed North Carolinians, including those of us who disagree with her positions on many issues, who expected her to be a star in the Senate.

--Dole has been an absentee Senator. We all knew it, but recent reports that she spent a total of 33 days in NC over the course of two years in her term resounded like coffin nails.

--Dole is closely identified with Bush.

--The DSCC has pumped a ton of money into NC to get the message out on all of the above, and the ads have been good.

--Hagan, a powerful member of the state senate, got immediate buy-in from party leaders and was able to raise money early.

--Hagan has run a steady campaign, criss-crossing the state in the style of her uncle, Walkin' Lawton Chiles. She's an appealing, centrist Democrat who plays well across North Carolina.

--Dole doesn't seem to be trying very hard. Her public appearances have been limited, and her ads have been lame. National support for her seems desultory, perhaps a result of her leadership role in the disastrous 2006 GOP Senate effort.

--Hagan has Obama's strong ground game, and the tech-smart, energized NCDP behind her (watch party chair Jerry Meek -- he's a star).

I would add that Dole is clearly a corporate Republican, who was pushing for more deregulation in the banking industry as recently as March of this year, right before the Bear Stearns collapse.

There's a common thread here, and that is the lengths to which swing states where Obama is contesting strongly have impacted those Senate races. Virginia (Mark Warner) and New Mexico (Tom Udall) have been out of reach for a while, but a state like North Carolina, with the impact of the Obama ground fame, gives Hagan a real leg up.

I think Cone is absolutely right calling Hagan a centrist. She is not going to put a lot of smiles on progressive faces with her votes, although her transit policies are first rate. Hagan refused to say whether or not she'd vote for FISA, and she'll be a moderate vote that at best will approach maybe Blanche Lincoln, and at worst Mary Landrieu. I'll be happy to see Liddy Dole out the door, but Hagan is a lesser priority for me, although I think an energized electorate in fast-changing North Carolina might pressure her into some better votes.

My hopes are with Jeff Merkley in Oregon and, to a lesser extent, Al Franken in Minnesota. By the way, this is an affecting ad:

Senate Campaign Report

Just a few items of interest:

• MS-Sen: What do you do when your handpicked GOP Senator is about to go down to defeat to a Democrat? You try to hide the race on the ballot, that's what!

A judge has temporarily blocked a state ballot that places the U.S. Senate race between Ronnie Musgrove and Roger Wicker near the bottom of the ballot.

Earlier today, the state Election Commission approved placing the Musgrove-Wicker race in the special election section that comes after regular election contests on Nov. 4.

But Pike County Election Commissioner Trudy Berger filed a lawsuit in Hinds County Circuit Court only hours after the commission meeting.

“My client's responsibilities are to the voters and the law is clear. Elections for federal office should be at the top of the ballot. The proposed ballot buries the most prominent election in the state and will cause confusion on Election Day,” said Jackson Attorney Sam Begley, who is representing Berger.

There's just no precedent for this. There's a clear dropoff of votes as you go down the ballot, and any coattails that the top of the ticket would have are nullified by placing the Senate race so far away. This is a novel way to suppress the vote by Mississippi Republicans. I'm almost in awe.

• NC-Sen: Elizabeth Dole is from Kansas. Her husband represented Kansas in the US Senate for decades. She ran for President as a citizen of Kansas. She moved to North Carolina when a seat opened up. That's not unprecedented (Hillary Clinton), but Dole tries to cover for this by saying that her family had a business in North Carolina for many years. Kay Hagan has been tweaking her Kansas roots, leading Dole to respond. But she couldn't actually name the family business that she uses to cement those ties to the state:

Dole (while laughing): I think (Hagan) has indicated many times that I’m from Kansas. But my roots are very deep in North Carolina. Very deep. Here, I grew up in Salisbury, went to the public schools, spent 11 years on the Duke board after I graduated from Duke, own a home there. I own a business in North Carolina, for goodness sake. My family roots go way, way back.

Reporters: What business do you own?

Dole: We had a family farm, which was turned into a real estate development. And it’s just outside of Salisbury. It’s just a beautiful development.

Reporters: What’s the name of the development?

Dole: [10-second Pause followed by nervous laughter] Well…

[Another pause]

Reporters: It’s fine if you …

Dole: I have to stop and think for a moment.

She eventually came up with the name (Forest Glen). Good for her.

• GA-Sen: Jim Martin has been impressively polling close to Saxby Chambliss in this race, which is kind of off the radar screen. And now he's brought in Max Cleland, the former Senator who Chambliss smeared horribly in the 2002 matchup (comparing him to bin Laden), to cut an ad. Keep an eye on this one.

• AK-Sen: The thought was that Ted Stevens wanted a speedy trial to prove his innocence before his Senate election. I guess he's less secure in the court case now, because he's clearly trying to drag it out. His lawyers are asking for reams of documents and plan to present a long, aggressive case. That may be good courtroom strategy, but it's terrible for Stevens' re-election hopes.

• MN-Sen: This is hilarious. No comment necessary.

Interviewer: I just want to know how you feel about the last eight years of George Bush.

Norm Coleman: Well, uh, belehduh belehdudeduh.

That's a verbatim quote.

House And Senate Report

Just a few things I've seen around.

• NC-Sen: Elizabeth Dole is the subject of the worst profile I've seen of a candidate in a while. It starts with her saying that she's been in her home state a lot lately. Um, it's kind of your job to be connected with your constituents all the time. Then there's this amazing statement:

Dole said she also supports drilling in the Alaska National Wildlife Reserve, where drilling would have a small footprint that wouldn’t harm much wildlife.

“Even the caribou like to snuggle up to the pipeline,” she said.

This flavor of crazy leaped from right-wing Rep. Michelle Bachmann of Minnesota over to Dole. The idea that Liddy Dole can read the minds of caribou - and that PLAYS INTO HER POLICY THINKING - is just incredible. If I'm Kay Hagan I play that for the next 11 weeks.

• AK-Sen: Ted Stevens is going to be standing trial in Washington, losing his battle for a change of venue in his corruption case to Alaska, where he has been providing everyone with their own personal bridge for 40 years. Sound judicial decision. So he'll be spending September and October in DC while fighting for his political life back at home, returning on weekends to campaign after a 8-hour flight. And he's in his 80s. Those will be some energetic rallies.

• CO-Sen: VoteVets has gone up with a very good ad basically calling Bob Schaffer a war profiteer for negotiating oil contracts in Kurdistan in the middle of the Iraq war. It's gotten some local coverage, where you can see Schaffer's campaign manager blowing a gasket.

Schaffer's campaign manager, Dick Wadhams, demanded the group apologize to the candidate.

"That is the most reprehensible and disgusting attack that could be leveled," Wadhams said, adding that three of Schaffer's five children are officers in training in college and will be deployed within a few years [...]

Wadhams challenged VoteVets.org to release its list of donors to prove it is not funded by "labor unions and leftist organizations."

Touchy, touchy!

• MS-Sen: This race between Roger Wicker and Ronnie Musgrove is far closer than you would expect for a race in Mississippi. So it's time for the Bush Administration to step in and sabotage the election.

When the Democrats and their attorneys began claiming last year that the Bush administration was using its prosecutorial might to target opposition candidates and their major financial supporters, I greeted the allegation with a skeptical eye.

I’m not so sure anymore.

This past week’s developments in the four-year-old investigation into the failed Mississippi Beef Processors plant seem timed to help derail Democrat Ronnie Musgrove’s bid to snatch one of the state’s two U.S. Senate seats from Republican hands.

Read the whole thing.

• FL-13: CREW has filed an FEC complaint against Republican Rep. Vern Buchanan, and there are a couple interesting signatories to the complaint - Buchanan's own employees.

Today, CREW and Florida citizens Carlo Bell and D.J. Padilla (both of whom worked for Buchanan's car dealerships) filed a complaint with the Federal Election Commission (“FEC”) against Rep. Vern Buchanan (R-FL) alleging serious violations of campaign finance law. The complaint and affidavits of Bell and Padilla can be found here.

Rep. Buchanan owns several car dealerships in Florida. In September 2005, dealership employees were pressured into contributing to Rep. Buchanan’s congressional campaign and some were reimbursed for making contributions. Former employee Carlo Bell was called into a manager’s office and told that if he was part of the “team” he would make a contribution. Fearing for his job, Bell agreed to make the donation and was handed $1,000 in cash. Bell also saw two other employees, Jack Prater and Jason Martin take cash in return for promising to write checks and FEC reports confirm that both men made $1,000 contributions to the Buchanan campaign.

• MN-03: It's Blog Day for Ashwin Madia, a former Marine corpsman and solid progressive. He also ended up writing a great piece about Sen. Lieberman and Iraq today.

Today, the Republican Party announced that the loudest defender of status quo policies on Iraq, Senator Joe Lieberman, will be a prominent speaker at the Republican National Convention in my home state of Minnesota. Senator Lieberman and I do have one thing in common. We’ve both changed political parties. I left the Republican Party in 2002 after it replaced “balance our budget” with “borrow and spend” and after we started a war without a plan for success; a war we did not need.

With all respect to Senator Lieberman, talking tough about Iraq is not brave. Bravery is not demonstrated through words but instead through action.

Just Another Day On A Rig

My belief is that this McCain boomlet in the polls is largely due to his acting Presidency during the fighting in Georgia while Obama was on vacation. Perception is often reality, and when one guy looks the part and the other guy is chomping on Hawaiian cheeseburgers, there's an effect. Never mind that McCain completely overreacted and such hotheaded-ness is the last thing we need in a President.

But that's generally over now, and now McCain is back to the same old politics, yesterday jumping on an oil rig to make the point that... they can bear his weight? What?

Senator John McCain finally headed out to an oil rig in the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday morning to sound his call for more offshore drilling, a refrain he has repeated almost daily in this summer of gas-pump sticker shock. Hurricane Dolly had forced Mr. McCain to cancel a trip to the rig planned in July.

“Americans across our country are hurting because of the cost of energy,” Mr. McCain planned to say on the rig,” after an hour and 15-minute helicopter flight from Kenner, La., a suburb of New Orleans. “Gas prices are through the roof. Energy costs have seeped into our grocery bills, making it more expensive to feed our families. And now, as people prepare for the winter, they are going to be hit with higher costs for home heating oil. It is time for America to get serious about energy independence, and that means we need to start drilling offshore at advanced oil rigs like this.”

It's weird that the 70-cent drop in oil prices due to falling demand hasn't been mentioned since conservatives started up the Mighty "drill now" Wurlitzer. The fact that there's a way to continue to reduce demand, lower emissions and cause less damage to the environment goes down the memory hole. Increased drilling adds to our dependence on oil, the opposite of what's needed.

This rig McCain was on, by the way, is partially owned by Exxon, but at this point, what isn't, right?

There's the long-version rebuttal, from the Obama campaign:

“For three decades, as our energy crisis grew, decision-making in Washington has been rigged against our national interests and the interests of American consumers. And for almost that long, Senator McCain has been part of the problem. For decades, he has stood with the big oil companies and voted against the development of the alternative energy we need. When a critical proposal came before the Senate late last year that would have provided tax incentives for the development of alternative energy by revoking $13 billion in giveaways to the oil companies, he was the only Senator who didn’t vote - and we came up one vote short. And now he’s standing with the oil companies in opposing a bipartisan compromise in Congress that would expand offshore drilling and, at the same time, make serious investments in alternative energy to break our dependence on foreign oil. When it comes to solving our energy problems, John McCain is just more of the same and America can’t afford it.”

And the short version, from surrogate Tom Vilsack:

"[McCain] continues to reject bipartisan compromise because it would roll back massive tax breaks for the oil companies," he said. "That is not putting the country first, it is putting the interest of oil companies first."

This feeds directly into the coming floor fight in Congress. Republicans simply won't repeal tax breaks for Big Oil, not even now, after years and years of record profits. They won't establish a renewable standard. Their "all of the above" plan just means open the coasts and send money to oil companies who won't drill but will put the leases into their reserves and raise their stock price. A smart campaign (I know, wishful thinking) will reveal that Republicans are in love with Big Oil and don't want to actually lower gas prices. MoveOn is already making this bet, spending half a million dollars to tie Elizabeth Dole and McCain to Big Oil in North Carolina.



Republicans are basically trying to hide on this issue by saying that the bill should move through the regular committee process. They don't want to make the hard vote against drilling that they would make if it includes repealing the tax breaks.

The problem, of course, is that if there's no deal by October 1, the coastal drilling ban, which needs annual approval by Congress, gets lifted. (Couldn't that make for some nifty ads by Democratic challengers, by the way, calling out longtime Reps. for voting to ban offshore drilling for 25 years?)

Senate Campaign Report

Let's see what's happening in the races to move into that august body.

• VA - Mark Warner, who's all but assured of beating Jim Gilmore to become the next Senator from Virginia, will be the keynote speaker at the Democratic National Convention in two weeks. There are two virtual locks for pickups on the Democratic side this year - Warner, a centrist, and Tom Udall, a progressive from New Mexico. Picking the former to deliver the keynote isn't exactly surprising, but it's a little depressing.

• MN - I really liked this YouTube debate - a real YouTube debate, where the questions and answers come from Web video - between Al Franken and Norm Coleman. I thought Franken made some excellent points and the issues were handled with an appropriate amount of seriousness. But this election in Minnesota has been more about silliness than seriousness, with allegations of improper payments of taxes and untoward language in jokes among the smears being lobbed at Franken. Now Coleman is getting a taste of this, as his sweetheart lease at a lobbyist friend's house in DC is being questioned.

Sen. Norm Coleman didn't have a lease for the first year he rented a garden-level bedroom in an upper-bracket Capitol Hill row house owned by a longtime friend and Republican operative.

In addition, Coleman didn't make a payment for utilities for the living space until last month, under a verbal agreement he had with his landlord -- St. Paul businessman Jeff Larson -- to settle up after a year in residence, Coleman campaign manager Cullen Sheehan said.

Coleman's Washington living arrangements, first reported in a National Journal article in June, have been a target of criticism by DFL officials and DFL election opponent Al Franken.

I'd rather stay on the issues in a perfect world, but when you're slimed like this you have to fight back. Good for Al Franken.

• AK - You know things are going bad for Ted Stevens when the governore who appointed him to the seat thinks his career is over.

• OR - Gordon Smith, in his time-honored tradition of painting himself as a moderate despite voting strongly with Republicans for the last six years, has dropped his state co-chairmanship for John McCain's election campaign. Very convenient, coming at a time when Smith is featuring Barack Obama and John Kerry in TV ads.

By the way, I've been remiss in mentioning that I had the chance to meet Jeff Merkley, Smith's opponent in Oregon, at an event last week. Merkley's an impressive guy - a former exchange student in the poorest parts of Ghana, a nuclear freeze activist who eventually worked in the Defense Department, the Democratic leader in the Oregon House who led them back into the majority and worked hard to pass a solid progressive agenda. Merkley and his family will have no health care after January - his wife went part-time during the election campaign and lost her coverage, and Merkley's coverage with the state will run out after he is replaced in the state House. This is someone who's really running for health care, and I found him to be intelligent, engaging and progressive on the issues. Oregon is really the tipping point - it will make the difference between a potential 5-seat Democratic pickup and something much larger.

• NC - The DSCC is pouring money into this race, attacking Elizabeth Dole in her battle against State Sen. Kay Hagan. I confess to not being Hagan's biggest fan, but Dole is a rubber stamp and a terrible legislator.

• NJ - The Republicans are bugging out of this race, pitting Sen. Frank Lautenberg against Dick Zimmer. Practically every year, Republicans pour money into New Jersey and come out with nothing. They appear to have learned their lesson. Republicans literally have only one pickup opportunity this cycle, in Louisiana.

...Senate Guru is always the best source for Senate campaign news.

And the Denounce and Reject Game Begins...

Good to see Democratic challengers jumping on this Ted Stevens thing today. He's been around 50 years and has distributed a lot of cash to his fellow Senators over that time. Now, by the rules of politics, that money is tainted. And so Jeff Merkley has begun by asking his opponent Gordon Smith to return that money or donate it to charity. In a pre-emptive strike, Elizabeth Dole has already dumped the money.

Campaign spokesman Hogan Gidley just told Election Central that the campaign has written a $10,000 check -- the amount Dole has received this cycle from Stevens' leadership PAC -- to the Society of St. Andrew.

Stevens' PAC has donated to every incumbent GOP Senator seeking re-election this year. That's one down. Will others follow?

It's one of those great little moves to put your opponent on the defensive. Go Democratic challengers!

...meanwhile, Stevens has resigned from his leadership positions on two committees.

...ooh, Norm Coleman took Veco money. Get on it, Al Franken!

...Mark Begich has released a statement.

"The indictment of Senator Ted Stevens is a sad day for Alaska and for the senator after his 40 years of service to our state. The people of Alaska are resilient and strong.

I have great faith in our state and our people, and we will continue to move forward."

...And now John Sununu has dumped Hulk-Smash's money.

...Andrew Rice is calling on James Inhofe to return Stevens' money, too.

The Jesse Helms AIDS Bill

It is kind of disgusting that Liddy Dole is petitioning to get the Senate to name a global funding bill to fight AIDS after Jesse Helms, the man who did more to demonize gays than practically anyone in Congressional history. Yes, at the end of his career he supported AIDS funding in Africa and said he was "ashamed that I've done so little" to fight the disease, one of the few times he opted to repent for his sins, but that's a cold comfort.

At the same time, there is something ironic in putting Helms' name on a bill for a disease he spent most of his life attributing to teh gay. Just the fact that he would be incensed by it is reason enough to go ahead and add the title. It's almost like a final F-you.

Campaign News I Noticed On TPM Election Central

• Another swing district Republican is calling it quits:

Congressman Jerry Weller (R-IL) will reportedly announce tomorrow that he is not seeking re-election.

President Bush carried his district with 53% in 2004, and Weller was re-elected with 55% in 2006. With those non-landslide margins in a district that simply was not targeted, we might just see the Democrats trying for a pick-up in a possible wave election next year.

As a side note, Weller is married to the daughter of the former dictator of Guatemala? Wow. We have a good shot to pick up this seat.

• The Republicans in the Senate finally bagged a decent candidate, but it's to replace a retiring member. Mike Johans, the current Secretary of Agriculture, resigned from the cabinet to run in Nebraska to replace Chuck Hagel. If Bob Kerrey runs on the Democratic side, this could set up a match between a former governor and a former Senator, and would become a top-tier race. But what's interesting is that Johanns is so personally ambitious that he would resign in the middle of negotiations on the farm bill, which only happens once every five years and is the most important bit of agricultural policy there is.

“For the secretary to walk away in the middle of a farm bill borders on irresponsible,” said Sen. Kent Conrad, a North Dakota Democrat on the Senate Agriculture Committee. His remarks were echoed by Democratic Sens. Byron Dorgan of North Dakota and Ben Nelson of Nebraska.

I would imagine that farm policy is kind of important to Nebraskans too.

• There's a new poll out in North Carolina which shows Elizabeth Dole under 50% in a hypothetical matchup against state legislator Grier Martin - and then LOSING to Martin after some biographical information is put forth. I do think NC is trending blue. As long as we don't run two-time loser and terrible candidate Erskine Bowles, I think we can take out Liddy.

• Now here's something that's not from TPM. The Ted Stevens saga has hit WaPo:

A construction worker who oversaw renovation of Sen. Ted Stevens's home said his company also paid him to help run fundraisers for the Alaska Republican, a practice that appears to violate federal campaign finance laws.

Contractor Robert Williams is a key witness in a bribery investigation that stretches from Alaska to Capitol Hill and threatens legal and political headaches for the Senate's longest-serving Republican. The FBI is investigating whether Stevens received illegal gifts from Veco Corp., a once-powerful Alaska oil contractor.

Williams said he was in charge of "special projects" for Veco founder Bill Allen, and the renovation of Stevens's home was one such project. Others included working three or four fundraisers for Stevens while on the clock with Veco. Federal election laws prohibit candidates from accepting donations or free services from corporations.

Considering that Allen has admitted to bribing Stevens' son in open court, and that there are all of these other unseemly connections, Hulk Smash Ted is probably calling every lawyer in DC right now.

Election News You Can Use

A mini-roundup:

• The only reason that you would know Tommy Thompson was running for President was the fact that he stepped in it yesterday by praising Jews for, essentially, being money-grubbing Jews. He kept insisting that it was a compliment, that he was just saying that Jews were great businessmen. You mean like Shylock? This isn't offensive, it's just clueless. He should join Joe Biden in the foot-in-mouth primary.

• If there were one Congressional seat that Democrats had to leave open, I would offer that it should be Duncan Hunter's open seat. It's a tough red district, and even though open seats are attractive, the fact that Hunter's son is running, and that he may be over in Iraq DURING the election, makes him almost unassailable.

• I really hope Brad Miller runs for Senate in North Carolina against Liddy Dole. Being only 10 points down a year and a half out, and with Dole at 44%, makes it a prime opportunity. Miller is a netroots hero, and really understands how to be a proud Democrat in North Carolina and not back down.

• Sen. John Warner raised five hundred dollars for the whole quarter? That's the kind of money you raise if you're not raising money and somebody gives you some by accident. I don't think he's running again, and if his namesake Mark Warner runs, that seat's going to flip.

• In another case of Democrats who came very close in 2006 who will run again in 2008, Dr. Victoria Wulsin will challenge Mean Jean Schmidt in OH-02. This is the best way for a challenger to defeat an incumbent, by raising their profile first, and then running to win the second time.

• The other shoe is dropping for Rep. John Doolittle. A former senior staffer to Doolittle, Kevin Ring, abruptly resigned his job as a lobbyist yesterday. Ring also worked for Jack Abramoff from 2000 to 2004, and he was basically Abramoff's way to get to Doolittle. After this trail appeared to have gone cold, this is a major sign that it's heating up again:

As The Politico notes, Ring seems poised to follow the path of other aides who've pled guilty in the Abramoff scandal -- pleading guilty to lesser charges in return for delivering their former bosses to investigators. Ex-Rep. Bob Ney's (R-OH) former chief of staff Neil Volz, who also worked with Ring with Abramoff and then later at Barnes & Thornburg, resigned abruptly from that firm in January last year. He pled guilty to corruption charges in May, agreeing to cooperate and implicating Ney.

Of course, another repeat candidate, Charlie Brown, is challenging Doolittle, and he raised over $100,000 in the first quarter, and since Doolittle has been busy erasing massive debt, holds a $200,000 cash-on-hand advantage. Of course, if things keep going the same way for Doolittle, he'll be spending the 2008 election in court.