NC-Sen: Residual Effects

North Carolina is a dead toss-up at the Presidential level this year, but nobody has high hopes for the incumbent.

A poll out Friday shows Sen. Norm Coleman could now easily lose his Minnesota seat to comedian-turned-candidate Al Franken. A Colorado race that initially looked like a nail-biter has now broken decisively for the Democrats. A top official in the McCain camp told us Sen. Elizabeth Dole is virtually certain to lose in conservative North Carolina [...]

Top Republicans say they have no hope for Dole in North Carolina. “There’s no point in even counting the votes,” said a top McCain official.

North Carolina is being lumped into the same column as Alaska, New Hampshire and Oregon in the second tier of winnable Democratic seats (Colorado, Virginia and New Mexico are in the first tier and are pretty safe to flip to the Dems). Why? Ed Cone explains why Elizabeth Dole's days are numbered.

--Dole has disappointed North Carolinians, including those of us who disagree with her positions on many issues, who expected her to be a star in the Senate.

--Dole has been an absentee Senator. We all knew it, but recent reports that she spent a total of 33 days in NC over the course of two years in her term resounded like coffin nails.

--Dole is closely identified with Bush.

--The DSCC has pumped a ton of money into NC to get the message out on all of the above, and the ads have been good.

--Hagan, a powerful member of the state senate, got immediate buy-in from party leaders and was able to raise money early.

--Hagan has run a steady campaign, criss-crossing the state in the style of her uncle, Walkin' Lawton Chiles. She's an appealing, centrist Democrat who plays well across North Carolina.

--Dole doesn't seem to be trying very hard. Her public appearances have been limited, and her ads have been lame. National support for her seems desultory, perhaps a result of her leadership role in the disastrous 2006 GOP Senate effort.

--Hagan has Obama's strong ground game, and the tech-smart, energized NCDP behind her (watch party chair Jerry Meek -- he's a star).

I would add that Dole is clearly a corporate Republican, who was pushing for more deregulation in the banking industry as recently as March of this year, right before the Bear Stearns collapse.

There's a common thread here, and that is the lengths to which swing states where Obama is contesting strongly have impacted those Senate races. Virginia (Mark Warner) and New Mexico (Tom Udall) have been out of reach for a while, but a state like North Carolina, with the impact of the Obama ground fame, gives Hagan a real leg up.

I think Cone is absolutely right calling Hagan a centrist. She is not going to put a lot of smiles on progressive faces with her votes, although her transit policies are first rate. Hagan refused to say whether or not she'd vote for FISA, and she'll be a moderate vote that at best will approach maybe Blanche Lincoln, and at worst Mary Landrieu. I'll be happy to see Liddy Dole out the door, but Hagan is a lesser priority for me, although I think an energized electorate in fast-changing North Carolina might pressure her into some better votes.

My hopes are with Jeff Merkley in Oregon and, to a lesser extent, Al Franken in Minnesota. By the way, this is an affecting ad: