Perish the Thought, A Republican Wins In Georgia?

It's a little funny to see Republicans claiming momentum in the country after an incumbent Senator wins a low-turnout runoff election in Georgia. Lots of us were hopeful that Jim Martin could steal the race, but let's face it, he was running uphill the whole time. Especially because Chambliss ran almost entirely on the concept of "divided government" and obstructing Barack Obama's agenda, which works among Republicans in a red state. They had to have this race and they spent millions to keep it. In Georgia.

I'm supposed to be upset? What's notable is that the race was close enough to go to a runoff at all.

But Nate Silver somehow thinks that this is a watershed moment, which I think is some bad analysis.

I tend to think that we should not be too dismissive of Saxby Chambliss's win in Georgia tonight. Although the outcome was expected, and although runoffs and special elections sometimes behave in idiosyncratic ways, moving from a 3-point margin of victory on November 4 to a 15-point margin of victory a month later is a significant accomplishment.

Chambliss received far less votes yesterday than he did in November. He didn't gain much of anything.

And this contrasts with the rest of Silver's analysis, which I think is accurate.

In certain ways, this is an awkward time for a Democrat to be running for office. On the one hand, with the imminent end of George W. Bush's term in office, and the fact that Barack Obama has effectively been serving as shadow present -- Obama is generating between two and three times as much news coverage as Bush according to Google traffic metrics -- it has already become harder for Democrats to pin our country's problems on the Republicans. Yes, Bush did damage to the Republican brand that will last for years to come, but it's the Obama brand that's strong more so than the generic Democratic one. On the other hand, because Obama hasn't actually been in office, the Democrats do not yet have any accomplishments to point to. The Democratic message in 2010 will essentially be one of two things...

1. Obama's accomplished X, Y and Z and showed the country the way forward, let's give him leaders in Congress who can continue to deliver for the middle class, or,

2. Obama accomplished X, but he couldn't accomplish Y and Z because the Republicans obstructed those measures to protect the special interests ... let's put partisanship behind us and elect leaders in Congress who can represent the common good.

...neither of those messages really work at the present time -- they require the first couple of political hands to be played out, and right now the dealer is still shuffling the cards.

Yes. Democratic prospects in 2010 will rise on fall on them delivering for the American people or calling out the obstruction. Martin had no access to these messages, and was making them, again, in GEORGIA. While Chambliss' "I'll obstruct everything" message is operative. This is what you can take out of this race - the plain fact that Republicans aren't ready to make nice, that they will block whatever they can block, and that Democrats had better start strategizing ways to get things done.

(Also, you can't attribute Martin's closeness on Dec. 3 to Obama's coattails, considering that he BEAT Obama in November, coming closer to Chambliss than Obama did to John McCain. This is about one side's supporters turning out. Runoffs are goofy.)

GA-Sen: Runoff Thread

So far, I can't say it looks good. The topline number means nothing right now because none of the metropolitan centers are included yet. But Gwinnett County is the only big county that's reported at all so far, and right now Chambliss is beating his pace from November, taking 58% of the vote.

Jim Martin will need big turnout in DeKalb and Fulton.

No early votes included at all so far?

...make that 64% for Chambliss in Gwinnett. He only got 53% in the general election.

UPDATE: 17% of the vote in, and Martin is down by 108,000 votes (that's the best way to look at it, as the percentages mean little this early in the game). DeKalb, Fulton and Cobb counties still have yet to report, but that's a pretty big early hole. Georgia is still red, and the concept of divided government has an appeal to the party out of power. This is going to be tough.

UPDATE II: DeKalb has started to roll in, and the first set of numbers show Martin with 69% of the vote. But he got 76% on Election Day. The numbers have tightened slightly, to a 62-38 edge for Chambliss with 30% reporting. No Fulton or Cobb yet.

UPDATE III: Chambliss is going to win this. I don't know if any news organization has called it but I will. Martin only took about 118,000 extra votes out of Fulton County in November. He's already down by 273,000. And remember, he had to IMPROVE on Election Day.

We still have a shot with Franken, but the most seats Democrats will have in the Senate is 57 + Sanders and Lieberman.

GA-Sen: The Second Test

In many ways tomorrow's runoff election in Georgia between Jim Martin and Saxby Chambliss offers a look at whether Barack Obama's organizational team can inspire voters to come to the polls if Obama himself is not on the ballot. While Obama never made it to Georgia to stump for Martin, his organization is definitely here, and working hard to get out the vote in a race which will be determined by turnout. While Chambliss has used GOP starpower like John McCain, Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin (who used the exact same stump speech from the Presidential campaign, simply using the find and replace tool to substitute "Chambliss" for "McCain"), Obama's organizers have gotten to work on the ground.

The Martin campaign has 25 field offices in the state, which is the same number of offices Chambliss has. We visited the Savannah offices Friday night and yesterday, and the organizing edge goes to Martin. On Friday night, the Chambliss office was open but empty, and a couple of dialers worked on Saturday around noon.

As Gillian Bergeron, Obama's deputy field director in Colorado and our special photographer for this trip, snapped away, the cordial Chambliss staff subtly joined the volunteers to add perception to a larger phone bank. In reality, there were three dialing volunteers while we were there. The operation was phone calls; Martin's operation in Savannah was doorknocking, following a morning rally at the ILA Hall.

The early signs are not particularly hopeful. The Secretary of State's office reports that only 22.5% of Georgia's early vote came from African-Americans, down from 34.5% in the general election. Moreover, the latest PPP poll concludes that Chambliss is winning among early voters 58-41, which would mean that Martin would need a very big victory on Election Day to win. This is the opposite of Obama's Florida strategy, where racking up gains in early and absentee voting led him to victory. Still, Martin's people are hopeful.

The feeling we've gotten as we've stopped into Martin field offices around the state these past few days is that it's been only the final week where the Obama field troops have felt like they've seen the voter contact and GOTV numbers move to where they're happy. We may have understated the Obama field presence. The Suwanee (Gwinnett County) office alone has 31 Obama organizers. While that is larger than typical for Martin offices dispersed around the state, it should give you an idea of how determined the field focus is [...]

The frustrating thing about projecting a runoff is that few know what will happen. Polling models are hard to trust, given the small number of data points and unpredictability of enthusiasm. Right now we know that the early voting black vote is great news for Saxby Chambliss, and we know from observation that the Martin ground game is far more robust, far more experienced and far more intense, which is great news for Jim Martin.

There's no way of knowing how this is going to go. A strong ground game is perfectly suited to a low-turnout runoff election, but the conservative argument that Chambliss is all that stands in the way from one-party Washington rule and forced gay marriage at abortion clinics by Muslim imams probably has some kind of pull in a red state.

What we do know is that there's still one day left to make a difference, even if you're outside the state. You can make calls through the My.BarackObama.com website to Democrats who voted for Martin in the general election. If we turn out enough voters, we win. It's that simple.

GA-Sen: Ads and Scandals

Jim Martin is using some tracker video in his latest ad, exposing Saxby Chambliss as a know-nothing on the economy.

ATLANTA – Jim Martin’s campaign released a new ad focused on the economy and Martin’s plans to work with President-elect Barack Obama to create jobs and cut taxes for middle class Georgians. With record job losses, falling home values, and retail sales dropping, it's clear that Georgia's economy is in trouble, but Saxby Chambliss says, “We may not be in a recession. I don't know what that term means.”

It's an ad very reminiscent of the Obama campaign, which used McCain's verbal gaffes to great effect. I think they're using the same voiceover talent as the Obama ads as well.

Martin might also want to pick up on the Imperial Sugar scandal. In February an accident at the Georgia factory killed 14, and Chambliss apparently used a Senate committee hearing to shift blame away from the company, despite their liability in creating a hazardous work environment.

Chambliss “Verbally Mugged” the Imperial Whistleblower at a Senate Hearing. On July 30, 2008, the Senate Subcommittee on Employment and Workplace Safety, of which Chambliss is not a member, held hearings on the Imperial Sugar explosion. During the testimony of Graham H. Graham, Saxby Chambliss entered the hearing and was allowed to question Graham. The Savannah Morning News said that from the outset it was clear that Chambliss had no intention of using the committee hearing as a fact-finding process. Tom Barton of the Morning News wrote that Chambliss “verbally mugged” Graham. He added that Chambliss’s clear intent was to discredit Graham and to place the blame for the explosion squarely on Graham’s shoulders. [ Savannah Morning News, 7/30/08; 8/1/08; 8/3/08]

Questions Were Seen as Attempts to Discredit Graham, and They Toed the Imperial Company Line. The Savannah Morning News reported that “An Imperial Sugar Co. executive's lawyer says the company put U.S. Sen. Saxby Chambliss up to harassing his client at a subcommittee hearing. Near the end of the Tuesday session in Washington, the Georgia Republican lit into Graham H. Graham, Imperial's vice president of operations. ‘I believe Chambliss was espousing the company line in an effort to discredit and blunt Mr. Graham's testimony,’ the attorney, Philip Hilder, said.” [ Savannah Morning News, 8/1/08]

Even Sen. Johnny Isakson Found Graham’s Testimony “Credible.” Chambliss’s treatment of Graham separated him from his Senate colleague Isakson. Isakson said, “I will say that I find Mr. Graham a credible witness.” [Savannah Morning News, 7/31/08; 8/1/08; 8/3/08; Associated Press 8/1/08; Columbus Ledger-Enquirer, 8/7/08]

The Aftermath: Chambliss Refuses to Apologize; Still on Company’s Side

After the Fire, Amidst Calls for Increased Regulation, Chambliss Called for a Quick Investigation So That “Imperial Sugar Can Move Ahead with Reconstruction of Its Facility.” Chambliss, a frequent critic of increased government oversight, made the comment just a week after the explosion in response to State Rep. Bob Bryant, D-Garden City, who called for tougher rules on dust after having met with the Port Wentworth plant's workers and their families.[ Savannah Morning News, 2/16/08] [...]

Chambliss Subpoenaed in Imperial Sugar Case; “Effort to Shift Responsibility” from Company Alleged by Victims’ Attorney. On Oct. 24, the Savannah Morning News reported that “U.S. Sen. Saxby Chambliss has been ordered to provide evidence in lawsuits stemming from the Feb. 7 Imperial Sugar Co. explosion and fire. The Republican lawmaker was subpeonaed Wednesday on behalf of four victims - two dead and two injured - of the Port Wentworth inferno that killed 14 and hurt scores of others… Savannah attorney Mark Tate says Chambliss might be part of an Imperial ‘effort to shift responsibility’ away from the company. The lawsuits, which Tate filed on behalf of the four victims and others, claim Imperial ‘wrongfully’ failed to remove hazards that caused the disaster.” [ Savannah Morning News, 10/24/08]

Let's see if Martin makes this a rallying cry in the race. Because it's all about turnout, scandals like this aren't frequently deployed in runoff elections. But I think this can be an exception. Chambliss carrying water for a corporate behemoth that saw their workers killed through their own negligence is a powerful symbol.

Senate Elections Update

The Alaska race still has enough votes left to count that the outcome is in doubt. But with Mark Begich taking the lead yesterday, and practically all the votes left to be counted in areas that Begich won on Election Day, I would have to agree that Begich is now the overwhelming favorite to win that seat.

This gets Democrats to 57 votes in the Senate (I'm basically done with counting Lieberman). And there are two races outstanding.

First we have the Minnesota recount. Boy if this doesn't feel like Florida 2000 all over again. The spread is even thinner; Al Franken trails Norm Coleman by just 206 votes. The recount doesn't start until next week, but the Republicans are framing the debate.

The recount in the Minnesota Senate race hasn't even begun yet, but already the GOP is working to delegitimize it in advance, by smearing the man who will run it as a partisan Democrat.

The National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) has been distributing to reporters a three-page "backgrounder" that attacks Secretary of State Mark Ritchie, a Democrat, for having spoken at the Democratic convention this summer, and for having "led a voter registration coalition that included ACORN," among other alleged sins.

Not only that, but he's a KKKommunist with ties to MoveOn.org!!!!1!!

I trust Minnesota's election officials will have the integrity to perform a legitimate recount, but if you start seeing masses in Brooks Brothers suits mulling around registrar's offices, worry. And I'm sure Coleman is getting some good advice - remember, he was Karl Rove's handpicked candidate to defeat the late Paul Wellstone. They've already got the online component to their work-the-refs campaign up.

Then there's the Georgia runoff. Markos has a poll showing the race at 49-46, Saxby Chambliss over Jim Martin, which is where the race ended up on Election Day. However, Nate Silver is right that it's going to be very hard to gauge turnout. The bottom line is that whoever mobilizes more of their supporters is going to win. And given that Obama has sent substantial field resources into the state to help Martin, he has at least an even-money chance to win. The DSCC is running ads and also highlighting John McCain's hypocrisy in campaigning with the man he called "disgraceful" during his last election.



Meanwhile, Chambliss' latest ad is completely slimy, suggesting that Martin supports child molestation. Seriously.



Obviously, Martin is going to need resources to beat back these lies. You can contribute here.

Neutralize Lieberman - Jim Martin For Senate

Today is Veteran's Day, and six years ago, Saxby Chambliss perpetrated one of the more cowardly and despicable attacks on a veteran in recent political history, accusing multiple-amputee Max Cleland of disloyalty and producing an ad connecting him to Saddam Hussein and Osama bin Laden (the core of the charge was because Cleland favored union rights for Department of Homeland Security employees, by the way - so it was an anti-union smear as much as it was a national security smear). Here's what one prominent politician had to say about it:

"I'd never seen anything like that ad. Putting pictures of Saddam Hussein and Osama bin Laden next to the picture of a man who left three limbs on the battlefield -- it's worse than disgraceful. It's reprehensible."

That was John McCain, who is later this month headed to Georgia to campaign with Chambliss in his runoff election against Jim Martin.

At least he still has his principles, right?

I will say that Saxby Chambliss is at least consistent. His contempt for veterans in the political arena is matched by his opposition to them on the floor of the Senate, voting against funding for the new GI Bill, traumatic brain injury research, proper amounts of time between deployments, and dozens of other initiatives.

Now, Chambliss is facing Jim Martin, an Army veteran who served one tour of duty in Vietnam. Neither candidate reached 50% in the November election, so there is a December 2 runoff scheduled. Barack Obama is sending aides to Georgia to work on the campaign, which will undoubtedly come down to turnout, and now it's our turn. On Veteran's Day, bloggers are having a national day of action to raise money and awareness for Martin. There are scattered events planned across the country, but you can visit this ActBlue page and give to Martin directly. Considering that not just McCain but Mike Huckabee and even Sarah Palin are scheduled to rush to Chambliss' aid, it's a chance to humiliate them once again.

But I want to look at it another way. The Georgia seat was not expected to be Democratic this year. Picking this one up in extra innings adds a vote on a variety of substantive issues - Martin looks to be pretty solid. And so all the wonder about Joe Lieberman's status in the caucus would be made somewhat irrelevant. His bad vote on the war? Cancelled out by Martin's? Veteran's issues? The same. His bad positions on economic stimulus and other progressive issues? Martin would likely nullify those as well. His chairmanship of the Homeland Security committee? Lieberman shouldn't have it, but Democrats are nearing a tipping point where they would gain extra seats on these committees (they are proportionally distributed), and thus it's possible that adding Martin to the Senate would put enough Democrats on that committee to vote down any frivolous subpoenas Lieberman might be itching to issue.

The best way we can neutralize Joe Lieberman is to put more Democrats in the Senate and marginalize his voice. Help out Jim Martin today.

Bloggers for Martin

Why Not Just Dress Up As The Twin Towers In The Next Debate?

Saxby Chambliss used the spectre of bin Laden and Al Qaeda to win his election in 2002, so why wouldn't he use it again to keep the seat?



I'm sure if you asked him, he'd call this a "positive spot."

Interestingly, John McCain is headed to Georgia to campaign for Chambliss. Why not, it's not like he's busy. Obama has not yet been tapped for an appearance in the state, but I assume he will be.

Will McCain ever learn? You don't mess with Obama and his ground game. If they throw everything they have into it and reach enough voters, I think this is very winnable.

Jim Martin is one of four candidates with races still undecided who you can support at the Daily Kos Orange To Blue page.

...while you're at it, you can drop a few shekels for Al Franken, and his looming recount. Most of the counties with an "undervote" are counties that supported Obama, so this could end up with a Franken lead before long. Norm Coleman's lawyers are pulling some shenanigans already, so Al needs your help.

Election Time!

Yes, since we couldn't spend a waking moment without an election going on, it turns out there's a runoff for the Senate seat in Georgia on December 2.

Jim Martin is the Democrat and he's a new breed of Southern progressive - a populist who opposed the bailout, supports net neutrality, and doesn't think the government should be spying on Americans.

Question: Do you consider yourself a progressive? Why or why not? If yes, why do you think progressives can win in the South?

Jim Martin: Yes. I've often tried to explain why I believe what I do in this way: My mother taught her six sons that we define ourselves by our deeds, not by our words - by living the values that come from our faith. When I was eight years old, I contracted polio. My parents had to isolate me from my brothers and take me out of school for fear that I would infect others. For months, I was confined to my bedroom, visited only by my parents and my doctors. I recovered, but some things in life you never forget. I will never forget what it feels like to need a little help. A government founded on solid principles does not turn its back on children, seniors, or people with disabilities.

Progressives can win in the South because people are fed up with where we are as a country, and they are looking for real change.

Martin has begun his Senate campaign with an ad attaching himself to Barack Obama and positioning himself as the right candidate to help bring along Obama's agenda. In a race expected to have low turnout, that could be enough. That, and what I would imagine to be a huge amount of ground organizing, much of it organic, from the same volunteers who got Obama elected.



And for progressives, there's a revenge factor. Republican Saxby Chambliss smeared war hero Max Cleland with a disgraceful ad in 2002 comparing him to bin Laden and Saddam Hussein. This time, we can pay him back.

You can help keep this ad on the air at the Orange to Blue ActBlue page via Daily Kos.

Senate Picture

Here's what we're looking at heading into GOTV weekend. Virginia, New Mexico and Colorado are going to be walks - score two for the Udall family in the US Senate. New Hampshire and Alaska look good - I'm still worried about a Stevens backlash, but the polls are showing strong late movement against the convicted felon. Oregon is moving away from Gordon Smith, and I think Jeff Merkley's going to take that race.

So that's six seats, with 9 needed - really 10 due to the Lieberman factor - to get to the magic 60 votes (which isn't all that magic, as I've explained). There's North Carolina, where Elizabeth Dole has debased herself by releasing a second ad harping on Kay Hagan's fundraiser with "Godless Americans". It's really absurd, but she's going with it. And it appears to be backfiring.

As Elizabeth Dole released her second attack ad trying to use Kay Hagan’s faith to attack her, it’s clear that North Carolinians are not buying it. Every major newspaper in the state (listed below), her fellow Republicans and the North Carolina Council of Churches (letter below) agree – Elizabeth Dole’s ads are “indecent,” a “gross misrepresentation,” “worse than dishonest,” and “beyond the bounds of acceptable political disagreement.”

“The overwhelming reaction to this ad has been disgust – directed at Senator Dole – for stooping to this low and attacking a fellow Christian,” said Hagan Campaign Communications Director Colleen Flanagan. “Senator Dole knows Kay is a strong Christian, a former Sunday school teacher and a member of Greensboro’s First Presbyterian Church, and she knows that her advertisements are lies. But what North Carolinians know is that these kind of political attacks won’t create one good job or help turn our economy back around. These are the issues folks here are concerned about and looking for leadership on, and these are the issues that will decide this election.”

Yesterday the North Carolina Council of Churches sent a letter to Senator Dole asking her to remove her ad, saying, “As you no doubt know, Sen. Hagan is a faithful and active member and leader in the First Presbyterian Church of Greensboro. To say or even to suggest that that outstanding congregation has chosen a lay leader who doesn’t believe in God is appalling and should be offensive to churches and church leaders throughout the state.

I think this is going to hurt Dole enough to put a nail in her coffin.

Then there's Minnesota, which has had a crazy last week. Norm Coleman sued Al Franken for defamation of character (Hagan actually did the same to Dole over the "Godless" ad), while court documents showed that a CEO was pressured to give $75,000 to Coleman and his family. Coleman has shows flashes of being fabulously corrupt in this campaign (having his DC rent, his utilities, and his suits paid for by lobbyists and contributors), and this is part and parcel. There's more evidence on this particular case here. The presence of former Sen. Dean Barkley (he was appointed by Jesse Ventura to replace the late Paul Wellstone for his final two months in office) on the ticket as an independent makes this completely unpredictable. This is going to be the closest race of the night.

And finally, we have the race in Georgia, where a huge African-American turnout would appear to help progressive Democrat Jim Martin. But Saxby Chambliss says that can be a rallying cry.

The Republican is outwardly confident, but there's urgency in his voice as he tours North Georgia, trying to boost turnout in his predominately white base: "The other folks are voting," he bluntly tells supporters.

Just in case anyone was confused about who those "other folks" are, Chambliss gave this quote to the New York Times:

The development is not lost on Mr. Chambliss. "There has always been a rush to the polls by African-Americans early," he said at the square in Covington, a quick stop on a bus tour as the campaign entered its final week. He predicted the crowds of early voters would motivate Republicans to turn out. "It has also got our side energized, they see what is happening," he said.

Nice to see a sitting United States Senator all but yell "race war!"

The thing about Georgia is that the winner must get past 50% or there's a runoff. With a Libertarian and a couple minor-party candidates on the ballot, that's entirely possible. So we could have an election between Martin and Chambliss in December, with the prize of 60 votes in the Senate hanging in the balance.

Kentucky, Nebraska, Maine and Texas may also surprise, but it's unlikely. I think the above represents the top level of competitiveness.

...regarding Kentucky, this is disgusting and sleazy and I hope it backfires, even though Mitch McConnell is a scumbag in his own right.

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It Must Be Homes And Investment

We are in a world of hurt right now economically. Job losses are increasing, and I predict we'll go an entire calendar year without one month of gains. This will likely lead to more foreclosures in the year ahead, as restructuring and refinancing isn't going to help the unemployed. Consumer spending will plummet and the holiday shopping season is probably going to be bleak, though some disagree. Most unnerving is the looming crisis in credit card defaults, because that's really all that workers who can't take equity out of their home and whose wages are flat have left to keep up with rising costs.

The question is what we do about this. Perhaps this plan from the FDIC chair will help.

Sheila Bair, chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., told the same Senate panel that the government needs to do more to help tens of thousands of home borrowers avert foreclosure, including setting standards for modifying mortgages into more affordable loans and providing loan guarantees to banks and other mortgage services that meet them.

"Loan guarantees could be used as an incentive for servicers to modify loans," Bair said. "By doing so, unaffordable loans could be converted into loans that are sustainable over the long term."

The FDIC is working "closely and creatively" with the Treasury Department on such a plan, she said.

As I said, recently unemployed folks aren't going to be able to refinance. And the loans have been so securitized that you'd have to negotiate on multiple fronts just to cover every piece of the mortgage. But if they can make it work, this is very desirable. The cost to the greater economy of a foreclosure, both in upkeep and falling home prices in the immediate area et al, is close to $250,000. If there are likely to be a million foreclosures next year, you're talking about a number approaching that of the bailout package. We have to do something to get homes under control. Keeping people inside them, too, is both an economic and a moral imperative.

The other thing we must do is public investment, in infrastructure and job-creating engines. The neo-Hooverites in the media who are proscribing belt-tightening during a recession are writing up a recipe for disaster. Republican allies to such a "head in the sand" approach include Saxby Chambliss and Norm Coleman:

“I would be very cautious if a stimulus plan becomes another excuse to simply spending more dollars,” the Republican senator said in an interview after a campaign rally Tuesday in Bemidji.

These two need to be defeated. It's totally absurd to advocate for austerity budgeting at this time. It threatens a longer and deeper recession than we've ever seen in our lifetimes. The government has the ability to step in where private investment can't to provide stimulus that CREATES, whether it's jobs or infrastructure or a move to a green economy. Speaker Pelosi is talking about freezing Bush out of the measure and waiting for a new President, and she should. But immediately thereafter, we need a serious stimulus (more than she's willing to admit, actually).

The Strange Death Of Republican America

The campaign arm of Senate Republicans just pulled out of Louisiana to focus on saving their seats in Georgia and Kentucky. Louisiana, where Karl Rove personally recruited a former Democrat to face Mary Landrieu, was the only Democratic-held seat where Senate Democrats were playing in 2008.

This guarantees not only that Democrats will keep the Senate, but that Republicans won't pick up one single solitary seat for the second campaign cycle in a row.

Meanwhile, some of the very Southern states where Republicans picked up their last seats, way back in 2004, are holding competitive races in 2008. The money is pouring into Georgia, where progressive Democrat Jim Martin is trying to unseat Saxby Chambliss. The early voting there has been so huge, with such a high black turnout, that Martin has an excellent chance. In North Carolina, listless Liddy Dole is in big trouble.

As economic turmoil has driven down support for Republican candidates in recent weeks, several polls have suggested that Mrs. Dole’s opponent, Kay R. Hagan, a relatively unknown state senator from Greensboro, has closed Mrs. Dole’s double-digit lead or even pulled ahead, and many analysts are now calling the race a tossup.

Ms. Hagan is a crucial part of the effort by Democrats to gain a 60-seat majority in the Senate, a margin that could limit Republican filibusters. From Nov. 16, 2007, to Oct. 5, the Democratic senatorial committee spent more than $4 million on advertising in North Carolina, more than in any other Senate race, according to TNS Media Intelligence/CMAG, a political data firm in Arlington, Va. The Democrats have reserved television time worth millions more.

The National Republican Senatorial Committee, which has less money, has also spent more in North Carolina than in any other state, $1.7 million. That disparity between parties is reversed when it comes to the candidates’ own treasuries. By the end of September, Mrs. Dole had raised $12.9 million, and Ms. Hagan, $4.8 million.

If Republicans need to pull out all the stops to win in Georgia and North Carolina, they're in worse shape than I thought. And it's not simply the economy, IMO; these are BAD lawmakers. Liddy Dole never spends a second in her home state and has no accomplishments. Saxby Chambliss is arguably worse. They were in the majority for four years and did nothing to distinguish themselves. When you are a robotic rubber stamp, there's no way to show leadership - you're spending all your time following. And I think people understand this.

Senate Tells House To Move Over

So the Senate, which is more resistant to popular opinion by virtue of its longer terms of office and rotating elections, will vote on the bailout tomorrow. And they'll probably pass it.

Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., and GOP Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky unveiled the plan Tuesday. The Senate plan would also raise federal deposit insurance limits to $250,000 from $100,000, as called for by the two presidential nominees only hours earlier.

The move to add a tax legislation — including a set of popular business tax breaks — risked a backlash from House Democrats insisting they be paid for with tax increases elsewhere.

But by also adding legislation to prevent more than 20 million middle-class taxpayers from feeling the bite of the alternative minimum tax, the step could build momentum for the Wall Street bailout from House Republicans. The presidential candidates Sens. John McCain, R-Ariz., and Barack Obama, D-Ill., intend to fly to Washington for the votes, as does Sen. Joe Biden of Delaware, the Democratic vice presidential candidate.

The tax plan was stalled out in the House last week. Helping relieve the middle class from getting hit with the AMT is fine, and would include the renewable energy tax credits:

The tax plan passed the Senate last week, on a 93-2 vote. It included AMT relief, $8 billion in tax relief for those hit by natural disasters in the Midwest, Texas and Louisiana, and some $78 billion in renewable energy incentives and extensions of expiring tax breaks. In a compromise worked out with Republicans, the bill does not pay for the AMT and disaster provisions but does have revenue offsets for part of the energy and extension measures.

This has now become a ridiculous inter-chamber slap fight. And really, where else could this have gone? They're larding on bills that may be popular to get people to relent and pass this pig. If they concurrently shrunk the plan to only get us through January, that would be one thing. But that's not happening.

As for the "progressive alternative," it doesn't read to me as much of an alternative at all. The good part of it, raising the FDIC insurance limit, is in the Paulson plan now, and the rest of it seems to just be a new way to give away lots of money. The change away from mark to market accounting is a fait accompli thanks to the SEC. David Sirota seems to like it, but I fail to see how it would do anything to stop foreclosures or alleviate the housing crisis. It may, I repeat may, save money on the initial layout. Maybe.

It's clear to me why the Senate is doing this. On the Democratic side, Obama comes off looking like someone who made this happen once he engaged. What's more, this crisis is playing well for them politically, not just for Obama but throughout US Senate races, and forcing Saxby Chambliss or Mitch McConnell, who are suddenly in close re-election races, into tough votes is advisable. For the Republicans, they are really in a spot, having to run against Bush but also being held responsible for the Wall Street meltdown, so they want to show leadership or something. But ultimately, this is about the Senate sticking it to the House and getting out of town. That's what they really want to do.

I'm not knee-jerk opposed to a bill if it only gets us through to January, but a big, bloated bailout doesn't make sense to me. There are smarter ways to intervene, but it doesn't seem like Democrats or even the Progressive Caucus is interested in it.

This is going to be a real tough vote for Bush Dogs. Bail out their Wall Street friends, but allow tax cuts without offsets?

What's The Matter With Georgia?

OK, so yesterday I saw this quote from the GOP front-runner for the June special election for US Congress in Georgia's 10th District to replace the late Charlie Norwood, a guy named Jim Whitehead:

"Iraq has not been a big thing in our district."

Wha-wha-what now?

Then today, there's this from Georgia's Republican Senator Saxby Chambliss.

As the Pentagon notified some 35,000 soldiers to prepare for a fall deployment to Iraq, Sen. Saxby Chambliss of Georgia said Tuesday he found "truly amazing" progress during a trip to the country this weekend [...]

"Every time I go over there the improvements in the conditions are truly amazing," Chambliss said in a noon conference call with reporters after his fifth visit to the country. "It's very encouraging to me to see the progress."

People on the same trip said the exact opposite.

Chambliss traveled to Iraq with several other members of Congress as part of an Intelligence Committee fact-finding tour. His comments contrasted with those of another Republican in the delegation, Sen. Olympia Snowe of Maine, who said in a weekend interview that she found little to be cheerful about.

"The good news is mixed; the bad news is downright troubling," Snowe said.

Have they checked the water in Georgia for melamine?

UPDATE: Here's a good rundown of the possibilities for Democrat Jim Marlow to win the GA-10 seat next month. He's going against three Republicans, so the potential does exist for a split vote.