Perish the Thought, A Republican Wins In Georgia?

It's a little funny to see Republicans claiming momentum in the country after an incumbent Senator wins a low-turnout runoff election in Georgia. Lots of us were hopeful that Jim Martin could steal the race, but let's face it, he was running uphill the whole time. Especially because Chambliss ran almost entirely on the concept of "divided government" and obstructing Barack Obama's agenda, which works among Republicans in a red state. They had to have this race and they spent millions to keep it. In Georgia.

I'm supposed to be upset? What's notable is that the race was close enough to go to a runoff at all.

But Nate Silver somehow thinks that this is a watershed moment, which I think is some bad analysis.

I tend to think that we should not be too dismissive of Saxby Chambliss's win in Georgia tonight. Although the outcome was expected, and although runoffs and special elections sometimes behave in idiosyncratic ways, moving from a 3-point margin of victory on November 4 to a 15-point margin of victory a month later is a significant accomplishment.

Chambliss received far less votes yesterday than he did in November. He didn't gain much of anything.

And this contrasts with the rest of Silver's analysis, which I think is accurate.

In certain ways, this is an awkward time for a Democrat to be running for office. On the one hand, with the imminent end of George W. Bush's term in office, and the fact that Barack Obama has effectively been serving as shadow present -- Obama is generating between two and three times as much news coverage as Bush according to Google traffic metrics -- it has already become harder for Democrats to pin our country's problems on the Republicans. Yes, Bush did damage to the Republican brand that will last for years to come, but it's the Obama brand that's strong more so than the generic Democratic one. On the other hand, because Obama hasn't actually been in office, the Democrats do not yet have any accomplishments to point to. The Democratic message in 2010 will essentially be one of two things...

1. Obama's accomplished X, Y and Z and showed the country the way forward, let's give him leaders in Congress who can continue to deliver for the middle class, or,

2. Obama accomplished X, but he couldn't accomplish Y and Z because the Republicans obstructed those measures to protect the special interests ... let's put partisanship behind us and elect leaders in Congress who can represent the common good.

...neither of those messages really work at the present time -- they require the first couple of political hands to be played out, and right now the dealer is still shuffling the cards.

Yes. Democratic prospects in 2010 will rise on fall on them delivering for the American people or calling out the obstruction. Martin had no access to these messages, and was making them, again, in GEORGIA. While Chambliss' "I'll obstruct everything" message is operative. This is what you can take out of this race - the plain fact that Republicans aren't ready to make nice, that they will block whatever they can block, and that Democrats had better start strategizing ways to get things done.

(Also, you can't attribute Martin's closeness on Dec. 3 to Obama's coattails, considering that he BEAT Obama in November, coming closer to Chambliss than Obama did to John McCain. This is about one side's supporters turning out. Runoffs are goofy.)

GA-Sen: Runoff Thread

So far, I can't say it looks good. The topline number means nothing right now because none of the metropolitan centers are included yet. But Gwinnett County is the only big county that's reported at all so far, and right now Chambliss is beating his pace from November, taking 58% of the vote.

Jim Martin will need big turnout in DeKalb and Fulton.

No early votes included at all so far?

...make that 64% for Chambliss in Gwinnett. He only got 53% in the general election.

UPDATE: 17% of the vote in, and Martin is down by 108,000 votes (that's the best way to look at it, as the percentages mean little this early in the game). DeKalb, Fulton and Cobb counties still have yet to report, but that's a pretty big early hole. Georgia is still red, and the concept of divided government has an appeal to the party out of power. This is going to be tough.

UPDATE II: DeKalb has started to roll in, and the first set of numbers show Martin with 69% of the vote. But he got 76% on Election Day. The numbers have tightened slightly, to a 62-38 edge for Chambliss with 30% reporting. No Fulton or Cobb yet.

UPDATE III: Chambliss is going to win this. I don't know if any news organization has called it but I will. Martin only took about 118,000 extra votes out of Fulton County in November. He's already down by 273,000. And remember, he had to IMPROVE on Election Day.

We still have a shot with Franken, but the most seats Democrats will have in the Senate is 57 + Sanders and Lieberman.

Remaining Races

Today is the Georgia runoff, and Sean Quinn, who has been providing excellent coverage throughout, is in the boiler room. His update is fairly optimistic, although other news outlets are reporting short lines throughout the state, and considering that Saxby Chambliss was reported to be winning among early voters, that's not a good sign for Jim Martin.

In the other undecided race in the US Senate, the Minnesota seat between Norm Coleman and Al Franken, the recount continues amid conflicting reports. While the main numbers based on votes tallied shows a 340-vote lead for Coleman, based on the Franken campaign's math, which takes into account frivolous challenges of ballots, he's only behind by 50 votes, and as a wild-card, 171 new ballots have been found in a Franken-friendly county, which gave Franken a net gain of 37 more votes. It seems like every year boxes of ballots just get found months after the election, and it's baffling to understand how or why. In addition, there are potentially thousands of absentee ballots that have been tossed out, which the Franken campaign is still protesting (and which the Secretary of State is preserving, which means that the courts could overturn the ruling and the ballots could be recounted fairly quickly). There is no telling where this race is headed - to the courts or even to the US Senate.

After a recount, the candidates or any eligible voter can head to court to challenge how the election was conducted or the votes were tallied. The Minnesota law spelling out the contest raises the possibility of Senate involvement.
"I don't think there is any possibility it will be simply a recount," said Hamline University law professor Joseph Daly. "It is destined for the courthouse and ultimately it is destined for the United States Senate based on this law. There's too much at stake. There's too much vitriol." [...]

Within 20 days of the initial filing, a trial is held. The court decides who received the most votes and is entitled to the certificate of election. The court can study evidence of election irregularities, but it can't issue findings or conclusions.

Once all appeals are exhausted, either party can ask that the information be forwarded to the presiding Senate officer.

From there, it's up to the Senate to decide how to proceed.

"Ultimately the Constitution gives the Senate the sole power to determine the qualifications of its members," Ritchie said. "In the end, there is no appeal if the Senate makes the decision."

Keeping fingers crossed at the outside shot at 60. We'll know more tonight...

GA-Sen: The Second Test

In many ways tomorrow's runoff election in Georgia between Jim Martin and Saxby Chambliss offers a look at whether Barack Obama's organizational team can inspire voters to come to the polls if Obama himself is not on the ballot. While Obama never made it to Georgia to stump for Martin, his organization is definitely here, and working hard to get out the vote in a race which will be determined by turnout. While Chambliss has used GOP starpower like John McCain, Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin (who used the exact same stump speech from the Presidential campaign, simply using the find and replace tool to substitute "Chambliss" for "McCain"), Obama's organizers have gotten to work on the ground.

The Martin campaign has 25 field offices in the state, which is the same number of offices Chambliss has. We visited the Savannah offices Friday night and yesterday, and the organizing edge goes to Martin. On Friday night, the Chambliss office was open but empty, and a couple of dialers worked on Saturday around noon.

As Gillian Bergeron, Obama's deputy field director in Colorado and our special photographer for this trip, snapped away, the cordial Chambliss staff subtly joined the volunteers to add perception to a larger phone bank. In reality, there were three dialing volunteers while we were there. The operation was phone calls; Martin's operation in Savannah was doorknocking, following a morning rally at the ILA Hall.

The early signs are not particularly hopeful. The Secretary of State's office reports that only 22.5% of Georgia's early vote came from African-Americans, down from 34.5% in the general election. Moreover, the latest PPP poll concludes that Chambliss is winning among early voters 58-41, which would mean that Martin would need a very big victory on Election Day to win. This is the opposite of Obama's Florida strategy, where racking up gains in early and absentee voting led him to victory. Still, Martin's people are hopeful.

The feeling we've gotten as we've stopped into Martin field offices around the state these past few days is that it's been only the final week where the Obama field troops have felt like they've seen the voter contact and GOTV numbers move to where they're happy. We may have understated the Obama field presence. The Suwanee (Gwinnett County) office alone has 31 Obama organizers. While that is larger than typical for Martin offices dispersed around the state, it should give you an idea of how determined the field focus is [...]

The frustrating thing about projecting a runoff is that few know what will happen. Polling models are hard to trust, given the small number of data points and unpredictability of enthusiasm. Right now we know that the early voting black vote is great news for Saxby Chambliss, and we know from observation that the Martin ground game is far more robust, far more experienced and far more intense, which is great news for Jim Martin.

There's no way of knowing how this is going to go. A strong ground game is perfectly suited to a low-turnout runoff election, but the conservative argument that Chambliss is all that stands in the way from one-party Washington rule and forced gay marriage at abortion clinics by Muslim imams probably has some kind of pull in a red state.

What we do know is that there's still one day left to make a difference, even if you're outside the state. You can make calls through the My.BarackObama.com website to Democrats who voted for Martin in the general election. If we turn out enough voters, we win. It's that simple.

Senate Elections Update

The Alaska race still has enough votes left to count that the outcome is in doubt. But with Mark Begich taking the lead yesterday, and practically all the votes left to be counted in areas that Begich won on Election Day, I would have to agree that Begich is now the overwhelming favorite to win that seat.

This gets Democrats to 57 votes in the Senate (I'm basically done with counting Lieberman). And there are two races outstanding.

First we have the Minnesota recount. Boy if this doesn't feel like Florida 2000 all over again. The spread is even thinner; Al Franken trails Norm Coleman by just 206 votes. The recount doesn't start until next week, but the Republicans are framing the debate.

The recount in the Minnesota Senate race hasn't even begun yet, but already the GOP is working to delegitimize it in advance, by smearing the man who will run it as a partisan Democrat.

The National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) has been distributing to reporters a three-page "backgrounder" that attacks Secretary of State Mark Ritchie, a Democrat, for having spoken at the Democratic convention this summer, and for having "led a voter registration coalition that included ACORN," among other alleged sins.

Not only that, but he's a KKKommunist with ties to MoveOn.org!!!!1!!

I trust Minnesota's election officials will have the integrity to perform a legitimate recount, but if you start seeing masses in Brooks Brothers suits mulling around registrar's offices, worry. And I'm sure Coleman is getting some good advice - remember, he was Karl Rove's handpicked candidate to defeat the late Paul Wellstone. They've already got the online component to their work-the-refs campaign up.

Then there's the Georgia runoff. Markos has a poll showing the race at 49-46, Saxby Chambliss over Jim Martin, which is where the race ended up on Election Day. However, Nate Silver is right that it's going to be very hard to gauge turnout. The bottom line is that whoever mobilizes more of their supporters is going to win. And given that Obama has sent substantial field resources into the state to help Martin, he has at least an even-money chance to win. The DSCC is running ads and also highlighting John McCain's hypocrisy in campaigning with the man he called "disgraceful" during his last election.



Meanwhile, Chambliss' latest ad is completely slimy, suggesting that Martin supports child molestation. Seriously.



Obviously, Martin is going to need resources to beat back these lies. You can contribute here.

Neutralize Lieberman - Jim Martin For Senate

Today is Veteran's Day, and six years ago, Saxby Chambliss perpetrated one of the more cowardly and despicable attacks on a veteran in recent political history, accusing multiple-amputee Max Cleland of disloyalty and producing an ad connecting him to Saddam Hussein and Osama bin Laden (the core of the charge was because Cleland favored union rights for Department of Homeland Security employees, by the way - so it was an anti-union smear as much as it was a national security smear). Here's what one prominent politician had to say about it:

"I'd never seen anything like that ad. Putting pictures of Saddam Hussein and Osama bin Laden next to the picture of a man who left three limbs on the battlefield -- it's worse than disgraceful. It's reprehensible."

That was John McCain, who is later this month headed to Georgia to campaign with Chambliss in his runoff election against Jim Martin.

At least he still has his principles, right?

I will say that Saxby Chambliss is at least consistent. His contempt for veterans in the political arena is matched by his opposition to them on the floor of the Senate, voting against funding for the new GI Bill, traumatic brain injury research, proper amounts of time between deployments, and dozens of other initiatives.

Now, Chambliss is facing Jim Martin, an Army veteran who served one tour of duty in Vietnam. Neither candidate reached 50% in the November election, so there is a December 2 runoff scheduled. Barack Obama is sending aides to Georgia to work on the campaign, which will undoubtedly come down to turnout, and now it's our turn. On Veteran's Day, bloggers are having a national day of action to raise money and awareness for Martin. There are scattered events planned across the country, but you can visit this ActBlue page and give to Martin directly. Considering that not just McCain but Mike Huckabee and even Sarah Palin are scheduled to rush to Chambliss' aid, it's a chance to humiliate them once again.

But I want to look at it another way. The Georgia seat was not expected to be Democratic this year. Picking this one up in extra innings adds a vote on a variety of substantive issues - Martin looks to be pretty solid. And so all the wonder about Joe Lieberman's status in the caucus would be made somewhat irrelevant. His bad vote on the war? Cancelled out by Martin's? Veteran's issues? The same. His bad positions on economic stimulus and other progressive issues? Martin would likely nullify those as well. His chairmanship of the Homeland Security committee? Lieberman shouldn't have it, but Democrats are nearing a tipping point where they would gain extra seats on these committees (they are proportionally distributed), and thus it's possible that adding Martin to the Senate would put enough Democrats on that committee to vote down any frivolous subpoenas Lieberman might be itching to issue.

The best way we can neutralize Joe Lieberman is to put more Democrats in the Senate and marginalize his voice. Help out Jim Martin today.

Bloggers for Martin

Why Not Just Dress Up As The Twin Towers In The Next Debate?

Saxby Chambliss used the spectre of bin Laden and Al Qaeda to win his election in 2002, so why wouldn't he use it again to keep the seat?



I'm sure if you asked him, he'd call this a "positive spot."

Interestingly, John McCain is headed to Georgia to campaign for Chambliss. Why not, it's not like he's busy. Obama has not yet been tapped for an appearance in the state, but I assume he will be.

Will McCain ever learn? You don't mess with Obama and his ground game. If they throw everything they have into it and reach enough voters, I think this is very winnable.

Jim Martin is one of four candidates with races still undecided who you can support at the Daily Kos Orange To Blue page.

...while you're at it, you can drop a few shekels for Al Franken, and his looming recount. Most of the counties with an "undervote" are counties that supported Obama, so this could end up with a Franken lead before long. Norm Coleman's lawyers are pulling some shenanigans already, so Al needs your help.

Election Time!

Yes, since we couldn't spend a waking moment without an election going on, it turns out there's a runoff for the Senate seat in Georgia on December 2.

Jim Martin is the Democrat and he's a new breed of Southern progressive - a populist who opposed the bailout, supports net neutrality, and doesn't think the government should be spying on Americans.

Question: Do you consider yourself a progressive? Why or why not? If yes, why do you think progressives can win in the South?

Jim Martin: Yes. I've often tried to explain why I believe what I do in this way: My mother taught her six sons that we define ourselves by our deeds, not by our words - by living the values that come from our faith. When I was eight years old, I contracted polio. My parents had to isolate me from my brothers and take me out of school for fear that I would infect others. For months, I was confined to my bedroom, visited only by my parents and my doctors. I recovered, but some things in life you never forget. I will never forget what it feels like to need a little help. A government founded on solid principles does not turn its back on children, seniors, or people with disabilities.

Progressives can win in the South because people are fed up with where we are as a country, and they are looking for real change.

Martin has begun his Senate campaign with an ad attaching himself to Barack Obama and positioning himself as the right candidate to help bring along Obama's agenda. In a race expected to have low turnout, that could be enough. That, and what I would imagine to be a huge amount of ground organizing, much of it organic, from the same volunteers who got Obama elected.



And for progressives, there's a revenge factor. Republican Saxby Chambliss smeared war hero Max Cleland with a disgraceful ad in 2002 comparing him to bin Laden and Saddam Hussein. This time, we can pay him back.

You can help keep this ad on the air at the Orange to Blue ActBlue page via Daily Kos.