Perish the Thought, A Republican Wins In Georgia?

It's a little funny to see Republicans claiming momentum in the country after an incumbent Senator wins a low-turnout runoff election in Georgia. Lots of us were hopeful that Jim Martin could steal the race, but let's face it, he was running uphill the whole time. Especially because Chambliss ran almost entirely on the concept of "divided government" and obstructing Barack Obama's agenda, which works among Republicans in a red state. They had to have this race and they spent millions to keep it. In Georgia.

I'm supposed to be upset? What's notable is that the race was close enough to go to a runoff at all.

But Nate Silver somehow thinks that this is a watershed moment, which I think is some bad analysis.

I tend to think that we should not be too dismissive of Saxby Chambliss's win in Georgia tonight. Although the outcome was expected, and although runoffs and special elections sometimes behave in idiosyncratic ways, moving from a 3-point margin of victory on November 4 to a 15-point margin of victory a month later is a significant accomplishment.

Chambliss received far less votes yesterday than he did in November. He didn't gain much of anything.

And this contrasts with the rest of Silver's analysis, which I think is accurate.

In certain ways, this is an awkward time for a Democrat to be running for office. On the one hand, with the imminent end of George W. Bush's term in office, and the fact that Barack Obama has effectively been serving as shadow present -- Obama is generating between two and three times as much news coverage as Bush according to Google traffic metrics -- it has already become harder for Democrats to pin our country's problems on the Republicans. Yes, Bush did damage to the Republican brand that will last for years to come, but it's the Obama brand that's strong more so than the generic Democratic one. On the other hand, because Obama hasn't actually been in office, the Democrats do not yet have any accomplishments to point to. The Democratic message in 2010 will essentially be one of two things...

1. Obama's accomplished X, Y and Z and showed the country the way forward, let's give him leaders in Congress who can continue to deliver for the middle class, or,

2. Obama accomplished X, but he couldn't accomplish Y and Z because the Republicans obstructed those measures to protect the special interests ... let's put partisanship behind us and elect leaders in Congress who can represent the common good.

...neither of those messages really work at the present time -- they require the first couple of political hands to be played out, and right now the dealer is still shuffling the cards.

Yes. Democratic prospects in 2010 will rise on fall on them delivering for the American people or calling out the obstruction. Martin had no access to these messages, and was making them, again, in GEORGIA. While Chambliss' "I'll obstruct everything" message is operative. This is what you can take out of this race - the plain fact that Republicans aren't ready to make nice, that they will block whatever they can block, and that Democrats had better start strategizing ways to get things done.

(Also, you can't attribute Martin's closeness on Dec. 3 to Obama's coattails, considering that he BEAT Obama in November, coming closer to Chambliss than Obama did to John McCain. This is about one side's supporters turning out. Runoffs are goofy.)

GA-Sen: Runoff Thread

So far, I can't say it looks good. The topline number means nothing right now because none of the metropolitan centers are included yet. But Gwinnett County is the only big county that's reported at all so far, and right now Chambliss is beating his pace from November, taking 58% of the vote.

Jim Martin will need big turnout in DeKalb and Fulton.

No early votes included at all so far?

...make that 64% for Chambliss in Gwinnett. He only got 53% in the general election.

UPDATE: 17% of the vote in, and Martin is down by 108,000 votes (that's the best way to look at it, as the percentages mean little this early in the game). DeKalb, Fulton and Cobb counties still have yet to report, but that's a pretty big early hole. Georgia is still red, and the concept of divided government has an appeal to the party out of power. This is going to be tough.

UPDATE II: DeKalb has started to roll in, and the first set of numbers show Martin with 69% of the vote. But he got 76% on Election Day. The numbers have tightened slightly, to a 62-38 edge for Chambliss with 30% reporting. No Fulton or Cobb yet.

UPDATE III: Chambliss is going to win this. I don't know if any news organization has called it but I will. Martin only took about 118,000 extra votes out of Fulton County in November. He's already down by 273,000. And remember, he had to IMPROVE on Election Day.

We still have a shot with Franken, but the most seats Democrats will have in the Senate is 57 + Sanders and Lieberman.

Remaining Races

Today is the Georgia runoff, and Sean Quinn, who has been providing excellent coverage throughout, is in the boiler room. His update is fairly optimistic, although other news outlets are reporting short lines throughout the state, and considering that Saxby Chambliss was reported to be winning among early voters, that's not a good sign for Jim Martin.

In the other undecided race in the US Senate, the Minnesota seat between Norm Coleman and Al Franken, the recount continues amid conflicting reports. While the main numbers based on votes tallied shows a 340-vote lead for Coleman, based on the Franken campaign's math, which takes into account frivolous challenges of ballots, he's only behind by 50 votes, and as a wild-card, 171 new ballots have been found in a Franken-friendly county, which gave Franken a net gain of 37 more votes. It seems like every year boxes of ballots just get found months after the election, and it's baffling to understand how or why. In addition, there are potentially thousands of absentee ballots that have been tossed out, which the Franken campaign is still protesting (and which the Secretary of State is preserving, which means that the courts could overturn the ruling and the ballots could be recounted fairly quickly). There is no telling where this race is headed - to the courts or even to the US Senate.

After a recount, the candidates or any eligible voter can head to court to challenge how the election was conducted or the votes were tallied. The Minnesota law spelling out the contest raises the possibility of Senate involvement.
"I don't think there is any possibility it will be simply a recount," said Hamline University law professor Joseph Daly. "It is destined for the courthouse and ultimately it is destined for the United States Senate based on this law. There's too much at stake. There's too much vitriol." [...]

Within 20 days of the initial filing, a trial is held. The court decides who received the most votes and is entitled to the certificate of election. The court can study evidence of election irregularities, but it can't issue findings or conclusions.

Once all appeals are exhausted, either party can ask that the information be forwarded to the presiding Senate officer.

From there, it's up to the Senate to decide how to proceed.

"Ultimately the Constitution gives the Senate the sole power to determine the qualifications of its members," Ritchie said. "In the end, there is no appeal if the Senate makes the decision."

Keeping fingers crossed at the outside shot at 60. We'll know more tonight...

GA-Sen: The Second Test

In many ways tomorrow's runoff election in Georgia between Jim Martin and Saxby Chambliss offers a look at whether Barack Obama's organizational team can inspire voters to come to the polls if Obama himself is not on the ballot. While Obama never made it to Georgia to stump for Martin, his organization is definitely here, and working hard to get out the vote in a race which will be determined by turnout. While Chambliss has used GOP starpower like John McCain, Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin (who used the exact same stump speech from the Presidential campaign, simply using the find and replace tool to substitute "Chambliss" for "McCain"), Obama's organizers have gotten to work on the ground.

The Martin campaign has 25 field offices in the state, which is the same number of offices Chambliss has. We visited the Savannah offices Friday night and yesterday, and the organizing edge goes to Martin. On Friday night, the Chambliss office was open but empty, and a couple of dialers worked on Saturday around noon.

As Gillian Bergeron, Obama's deputy field director in Colorado and our special photographer for this trip, snapped away, the cordial Chambliss staff subtly joined the volunteers to add perception to a larger phone bank. In reality, there were three dialing volunteers while we were there. The operation was phone calls; Martin's operation in Savannah was doorknocking, following a morning rally at the ILA Hall.

The early signs are not particularly hopeful. The Secretary of State's office reports that only 22.5% of Georgia's early vote came from African-Americans, down from 34.5% in the general election. Moreover, the latest PPP poll concludes that Chambliss is winning among early voters 58-41, which would mean that Martin would need a very big victory on Election Day to win. This is the opposite of Obama's Florida strategy, where racking up gains in early and absentee voting led him to victory. Still, Martin's people are hopeful.

The feeling we've gotten as we've stopped into Martin field offices around the state these past few days is that it's been only the final week where the Obama field troops have felt like they've seen the voter contact and GOTV numbers move to where they're happy. We may have understated the Obama field presence. The Suwanee (Gwinnett County) office alone has 31 Obama organizers. While that is larger than typical for Martin offices dispersed around the state, it should give you an idea of how determined the field focus is [...]

The frustrating thing about projecting a runoff is that few know what will happen. Polling models are hard to trust, given the small number of data points and unpredictability of enthusiasm. Right now we know that the early voting black vote is great news for Saxby Chambliss, and we know from observation that the Martin ground game is far more robust, far more experienced and far more intense, which is great news for Jim Martin.

There's no way of knowing how this is going to go. A strong ground game is perfectly suited to a low-turnout runoff election, but the conservative argument that Chambliss is all that stands in the way from one-party Washington rule and forced gay marriage at abortion clinics by Muslim imams probably has some kind of pull in a red state.

What we do know is that there's still one day left to make a difference, even if you're outside the state. You can make calls through the My.BarackObama.com website to Democrats who voted for Martin in the general election. If we turn out enough voters, we win. It's that simple.

GA-Sen: Barack Hits The Radio

Sen. Obama appears in a 60-second radio spot for Jim Martin's Senate race in Georgia:

UPDATE, 6:30 pm: Barack Obama has cut a new 60-second radio ad in support of former state Rep. Jim Martin's Senate campaign in Georgia. In the ad, which was obtained by The Fix moments ago, Obama thanks everyone who voted for him on November 4 and then adds: "The elections aren't over....I want to urge you to turn out one more time and help elect Jim Martin to the United States Senate."

A radio ad is not a personal visit by the president-elect but Martin's campaign will gladly take it.

I think he needs to go down there.

You can listen to the radio ad here, as well as donate to keep it on the air. We'll be making calls for Martin this weekend in Venice, CA, if you are interested email msblucow-at-mac-dot-com. They've also set up a tool to make phone calls from home through the My.BarackObama.com website.

GA-Sen: Ads and Scandals

Jim Martin is using some tracker video in his latest ad, exposing Saxby Chambliss as a know-nothing on the economy.

ATLANTA – Jim Martin’s campaign released a new ad focused on the economy and Martin’s plans to work with President-elect Barack Obama to create jobs and cut taxes for middle class Georgians. With record job losses, falling home values, and retail sales dropping, it's clear that Georgia's economy is in trouble, but Saxby Chambliss says, “We may not be in a recession. I don't know what that term means.”

It's an ad very reminiscent of the Obama campaign, which used McCain's verbal gaffes to great effect. I think they're using the same voiceover talent as the Obama ads as well.

Martin might also want to pick up on the Imperial Sugar scandal. In February an accident at the Georgia factory killed 14, and Chambliss apparently used a Senate committee hearing to shift blame away from the company, despite their liability in creating a hazardous work environment.

Chambliss “Verbally Mugged” the Imperial Whistleblower at a Senate Hearing. On July 30, 2008, the Senate Subcommittee on Employment and Workplace Safety, of which Chambliss is not a member, held hearings on the Imperial Sugar explosion. During the testimony of Graham H. Graham, Saxby Chambliss entered the hearing and was allowed to question Graham. The Savannah Morning News said that from the outset it was clear that Chambliss had no intention of using the committee hearing as a fact-finding process. Tom Barton of the Morning News wrote that Chambliss “verbally mugged” Graham. He added that Chambliss’s clear intent was to discredit Graham and to place the blame for the explosion squarely on Graham’s shoulders. [ Savannah Morning News, 7/30/08; 8/1/08; 8/3/08]

Questions Were Seen as Attempts to Discredit Graham, and They Toed the Imperial Company Line. The Savannah Morning News reported that “An Imperial Sugar Co. executive's lawyer says the company put U.S. Sen. Saxby Chambliss up to harassing his client at a subcommittee hearing. Near the end of the Tuesday session in Washington, the Georgia Republican lit into Graham H. Graham, Imperial's vice president of operations. ‘I believe Chambliss was espousing the company line in an effort to discredit and blunt Mr. Graham's testimony,’ the attorney, Philip Hilder, said.” [ Savannah Morning News, 8/1/08]

Even Sen. Johnny Isakson Found Graham’s Testimony “Credible.” Chambliss’s treatment of Graham separated him from his Senate colleague Isakson. Isakson said, “I will say that I find Mr. Graham a credible witness.” [Savannah Morning News, 7/31/08; 8/1/08; 8/3/08; Associated Press 8/1/08; Columbus Ledger-Enquirer, 8/7/08]

The Aftermath: Chambliss Refuses to Apologize; Still on Company’s Side

After the Fire, Amidst Calls for Increased Regulation, Chambliss Called for a Quick Investigation So That “Imperial Sugar Can Move Ahead with Reconstruction of Its Facility.” Chambliss, a frequent critic of increased government oversight, made the comment just a week after the explosion in response to State Rep. Bob Bryant, D-Garden City, who called for tougher rules on dust after having met with the Port Wentworth plant's workers and their families.[ Savannah Morning News, 2/16/08] [...]

Chambliss Subpoenaed in Imperial Sugar Case; “Effort to Shift Responsibility” from Company Alleged by Victims’ Attorney. On Oct. 24, the Savannah Morning News reported that “U.S. Sen. Saxby Chambliss has been ordered to provide evidence in lawsuits stemming from the Feb. 7 Imperial Sugar Co. explosion and fire. The Republican lawmaker was subpeonaed Wednesday on behalf of four victims - two dead and two injured - of the Port Wentworth inferno that killed 14 and hurt scores of others… Savannah attorney Mark Tate says Chambliss might be part of an Imperial ‘effort to shift responsibility’ away from the company. The lawsuits, which Tate filed on behalf of the four victims and others, claim Imperial ‘wrongfully’ failed to remove hazards that caused the disaster.” [ Savannah Morning News, 10/24/08]

Let's see if Martin makes this a rallying cry in the race. Because it's all about turnout, scandals like this aren't frequently deployed in runoff elections. But I think this can be an exception. Chambliss carrying water for a corporate behemoth that saw their workers killed through their own negligence is a powerful symbol.

Senate Elections Update

The Alaska race still has enough votes left to count that the outcome is in doubt. But with Mark Begich taking the lead yesterday, and practically all the votes left to be counted in areas that Begich won on Election Day, I would have to agree that Begich is now the overwhelming favorite to win that seat.

This gets Democrats to 57 votes in the Senate (I'm basically done with counting Lieberman). And there are two races outstanding.

First we have the Minnesota recount. Boy if this doesn't feel like Florida 2000 all over again. The spread is even thinner; Al Franken trails Norm Coleman by just 206 votes. The recount doesn't start until next week, but the Republicans are framing the debate.

The recount in the Minnesota Senate race hasn't even begun yet, but already the GOP is working to delegitimize it in advance, by smearing the man who will run it as a partisan Democrat.

The National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) has been distributing to reporters a three-page "backgrounder" that attacks Secretary of State Mark Ritchie, a Democrat, for having spoken at the Democratic convention this summer, and for having "led a voter registration coalition that included ACORN," among other alleged sins.

Not only that, but he's a KKKommunist with ties to MoveOn.org!!!!1!!

I trust Minnesota's election officials will have the integrity to perform a legitimate recount, but if you start seeing masses in Brooks Brothers suits mulling around registrar's offices, worry. And I'm sure Coleman is getting some good advice - remember, he was Karl Rove's handpicked candidate to defeat the late Paul Wellstone. They've already got the online component to their work-the-refs campaign up.

Then there's the Georgia runoff. Markos has a poll showing the race at 49-46, Saxby Chambliss over Jim Martin, which is where the race ended up on Election Day. However, Nate Silver is right that it's going to be very hard to gauge turnout. The bottom line is that whoever mobilizes more of their supporters is going to win. And given that Obama has sent substantial field resources into the state to help Martin, he has at least an even-money chance to win. The DSCC is running ads and also highlighting John McCain's hypocrisy in campaigning with the man he called "disgraceful" during his last election.



Meanwhile, Chambliss' latest ad is completely slimy, suggesting that Martin supports child molestation. Seriously.



Obviously, Martin is going to need resources to beat back these lies. You can contribute here.

Neutralize Lieberman - Jim Martin For Senate

Today is Veteran's Day, and six years ago, Saxby Chambliss perpetrated one of the more cowardly and despicable attacks on a veteran in recent political history, accusing multiple-amputee Max Cleland of disloyalty and producing an ad connecting him to Saddam Hussein and Osama bin Laden (the core of the charge was because Cleland favored union rights for Department of Homeland Security employees, by the way - so it was an anti-union smear as much as it was a national security smear). Here's what one prominent politician had to say about it:

"I'd never seen anything like that ad. Putting pictures of Saddam Hussein and Osama bin Laden next to the picture of a man who left three limbs on the battlefield -- it's worse than disgraceful. It's reprehensible."

That was John McCain, who is later this month headed to Georgia to campaign with Chambliss in his runoff election against Jim Martin.

At least he still has his principles, right?

I will say that Saxby Chambliss is at least consistent. His contempt for veterans in the political arena is matched by his opposition to them on the floor of the Senate, voting against funding for the new GI Bill, traumatic brain injury research, proper amounts of time between deployments, and dozens of other initiatives.

Now, Chambliss is facing Jim Martin, an Army veteran who served one tour of duty in Vietnam. Neither candidate reached 50% in the November election, so there is a December 2 runoff scheduled. Barack Obama is sending aides to Georgia to work on the campaign, which will undoubtedly come down to turnout, and now it's our turn. On Veteran's Day, bloggers are having a national day of action to raise money and awareness for Martin. There are scattered events planned across the country, but you can visit this ActBlue page and give to Martin directly. Considering that not just McCain but Mike Huckabee and even Sarah Palin are scheduled to rush to Chambliss' aid, it's a chance to humiliate them once again.

But I want to look at it another way. The Georgia seat was not expected to be Democratic this year. Picking this one up in extra innings adds a vote on a variety of substantive issues - Martin looks to be pretty solid. And so all the wonder about Joe Lieberman's status in the caucus would be made somewhat irrelevant. His bad vote on the war? Cancelled out by Martin's? Veteran's issues? The same. His bad positions on economic stimulus and other progressive issues? Martin would likely nullify those as well. His chairmanship of the Homeland Security committee? Lieberman shouldn't have it, but Democrats are nearing a tipping point where they would gain extra seats on these committees (they are proportionally distributed), and thus it's possible that adding Martin to the Senate would put enough Democrats on that committee to vote down any frivolous subpoenas Lieberman might be itching to issue.

The best way we can neutralize Joe Lieberman is to put more Democrats in the Senate and marginalize his voice. Help out Jim Martin today.

Bloggers for Martin

Why Not Just Dress Up As The Twin Towers In The Next Debate?

Saxby Chambliss used the spectre of bin Laden and Al Qaeda to win his election in 2002, so why wouldn't he use it again to keep the seat?



I'm sure if you asked him, he'd call this a "positive spot."

Interestingly, John McCain is headed to Georgia to campaign for Chambliss. Why not, it's not like he's busy. Obama has not yet been tapped for an appearance in the state, but I assume he will be.

Will McCain ever learn? You don't mess with Obama and his ground game. If they throw everything they have into it and reach enough voters, I think this is very winnable.

Jim Martin is one of four candidates with races still undecided who you can support at the Daily Kos Orange To Blue page.

...while you're at it, you can drop a few shekels for Al Franken, and his looming recount. Most of the counties with an "undervote" are counties that supported Obama, so this could end up with a Franken lead before long. Norm Coleman's lawyers are pulling some shenanigans already, so Al needs your help.

Election Time!

Yes, since we couldn't spend a waking moment without an election going on, it turns out there's a runoff for the Senate seat in Georgia on December 2.

Jim Martin is the Democrat and he's a new breed of Southern progressive - a populist who opposed the bailout, supports net neutrality, and doesn't think the government should be spying on Americans.

Question: Do you consider yourself a progressive? Why or why not? If yes, why do you think progressives can win in the South?

Jim Martin: Yes. I've often tried to explain why I believe what I do in this way: My mother taught her six sons that we define ourselves by our deeds, not by our words - by living the values that come from our faith. When I was eight years old, I contracted polio. My parents had to isolate me from my brothers and take me out of school for fear that I would infect others. For months, I was confined to my bedroom, visited only by my parents and my doctors. I recovered, but some things in life you never forget. I will never forget what it feels like to need a little help. A government founded on solid principles does not turn its back on children, seniors, or people with disabilities.

Progressives can win in the South because people are fed up with where we are as a country, and they are looking for real change.

Martin has begun his Senate campaign with an ad attaching himself to Barack Obama and positioning himself as the right candidate to help bring along Obama's agenda. In a race expected to have low turnout, that could be enough. That, and what I would imagine to be a huge amount of ground organizing, much of it organic, from the same volunteers who got Obama elected.



And for progressives, there's a revenge factor. Republican Saxby Chambliss smeared war hero Max Cleland with a disgraceful ad in 2002 comparing him to bin Laden and Saddam Hussein. This time, we can pay him back.

You can help keep this ad on the air at the Orange to Blue ActBlue page via Daily Kos.

The Solid South

McCain picks up Alabama and Georgia. As someone who has read Tom Schaller's Whistling Past Dixie, this doesn't surprise me. As black turnout goes up in the deep South, white turnout usually does as well.

It was good for Obama to raise turnout and spend money in Georgia, but realistically it wasn't going to flip. The Republicans are a regional party. The Mid-South, however, states like Virginia and North Carolina, are very much in play.

I also wonder how this will affect Jim Martin's Senate race. He's overperforming Obama right now, and not much of Atlanta is in. Hopefully we can get to a runoff.

Senate Picture

Here's what we're looking at heading into GOTV weekend. Virginia, New Mexico and Colorado are going to be walks - score two for the Udall family in the US Senate. New Hampshire and Alaska look good - I'm still worried about a Stevens backlash, but the polls are showing strong late movement against the convicted felon. Oregon is moving away from Gordon Smith, and I think Jeff Merkley's going to take that race.

So that's six seats, with 9 needed - really 10 due to the Lieberman factor - to get to the magic 60 votes (which isn't all that magic, as I've explained). There's North Carolina, where Elizabeth Dole has debased herself by releasing a second ad harping on Kay Hagan's fundraiser with "Godless Americans". It's really absurd, but she's going with it. And it appears to be backfiring.

As Elizabeth Dole released her second attack ad trying to use Kay Hagan’s faith to attack her, it’s clear that North Carolinians are not buying it. Every major newspaper in the state (listed below), her fellow Republicans and the North Carolina Council of Churches (letter below) agree – Elizabeth Dole’s ads are “indecent,” a “gross misrepresentation,” “worse than dishonest,” and “beyond the bounds of acceptable political disagreement.”

“The overwhelming reaction to this ad has been disgust – directed at Senator Dole – for stooping to this low and attacking a fellow Christian,” said Hagan Campaign Communications Director Colleen Flanagan. “Senator Dole knows Kay is a strong Christian, a former Sunday school teacher and a member of Greensboro’s First Presbyterian Church, and she knows that her advertisements are lies. But what North Carolinians know is that these kind of political attacks won’t create one good job or help turn our economy back around. These are the issues folks here are concerned about and looking for leadership on, and these are the issues that will decide this election.”

Yesterday the North Carolina Council of Churches sent a letter to Senator Dole asking her to remove her ad, saying, “As you no doubt know, Sen. Hagan is a faithful and active member and leader in the First Presbyterian Church of Greensboro. To say or even to suggest that that outstanding congregation has chosen a lay leader who doesn’t believe in God is appalling and should be offensive to churches and church leaders throughout the state.

I think this is going to hurt Dole enough to put a nail in her coffin.

Then there's Minnesota, which has had a crazy last week. Norm Coleman sued Al Franken for defamation of character (Hagan actually did the same to Dole over the "Godless" ad), while court documents showed that a CEO was pressured to give $75,000 to Coleman and his family. Coleman has shows flashes of being fabulously corrupt in this campaign (having his DC rent, his utilities, and his suits paid for by lobbyists and contributors), and this is part and parcel. There's more evidence on this particular case here. The presence of former Sen. Dean Barkley (he was appointed by Jesse Ventura to replace the late Paul Wellstone for his final two months in office) on the ticket as an independent makes this completely unpredictable. This is going to be the closest race of the night.

And finally, we have the race in Georgia, where a huge African-American turnout would appear to help progressive Democrat Jim Martin. But Saxby Chambliss says that can be a rallying cry.

The Republican is outwardly confident, but there's urgency in his voice as he tours North Georgia, trying to boost turnout in his predominately white base: "The other folks are voting," he bluntly tells supporters.

Just in case anyone was confused about who those "other folks" are, Chambliss gave this quote to the New York Times:

The development is not lost on Mr. Chambliss. "There has always been a rush to the polls by African-Americans early," he said at the square in Covington, a quick stop on a bus tour as the campaign entered its final week. He predicted the crowds of early voters would motivate Republicans to turn out. "It has also got our side energized, they see what is happening," he said.

Nice to see a sitting United States Senator all but yell "race war!"

The thing about Georgia is that the winner must get past 50% or there's a runoff. With a Libertarian and a couple minor-party candidates on the ballot, that's entirely possible. So we could have an election between Martin and Chambliss in December, with the prize of 60 votes in the Senate hanging in the balance.

Kentucky, Nebraska, Maine and Texas may also surprise, but it's unlikely. I think the above represents the top level of competitiveness.

...regarding Kentucky, this is disgusting and sleazy and I hope it backfires, even though Mitch McConnell is a scumbag in his own right.

[ Find Your Polling Place | Voting Info For Your State | Know Your Voting Rights | Report Voting Problems ]

The House And Senate Picture

Just wanted to update the look of things in the Congress (outside of California this time):

• MN-Sen: Al Franken has surged ahead of Norm Coleman and looks like he's going to take this one in Minnesota. The Coleman campaign tried to drive up Franken's negatives over the summer by scrutinizing some ticky-tack tax statements, all of which had very simple explanations. This turned out to be a fatal mistake considering all of the skeletons in Coleman's financial closet, especially all the gifts he receives from lobbyists and contributors - his rent, his utility bills, and even his CLOTHING. This led to an excruciating press conference where his spokesman was resigned to repeating "The Senator has reported ever gift he's ever received" over and over. Wow, what a flameout.

• AK-Sen: In Alaska, however, I'm not nearly as sure of this one as I was. The prosecution has been so incompetent in the Ted Stevens corruption case that the judge tossed out key evidence and the defense will again call for a mistrial. If Stevens is exonerated, whether through mistrial or acquittal, there will be a significant rebound in his poll numbers, and he's already nearly even right now. This ad from the DSCC is good, but I'm not sure it'll be good enough. I think Mark Begich is in some trouble.

• NC-Sen: VoteVets is back. They've revived their wildly successful body armor ad and set their sights on Elizabeth Dole. It's just as powerful as it was in 2006.



Liddy Dole is toast.

• ME-Sen: Interesting happenings in Maine. Susan Collins was popular enough for national Democrats to kind of leave the Tom Allen challenge for dead, but the twists and turns in the economic picture makes any Republican toxic. Sensing the changing winds, Planned Parenthood, which has endorsed Collins in the past as a bone to throw to a Republican for a couple good votes, turned around and endorsed Allen. Recent polls are tightening and there really could be a late rush.

• GA-Sen: I knew the polls were very close in Georgia, and nobody deserves to lose more than Saxby Chambliss, who unleashed that shameful ad in 2002 relating Max Cleland to Saxby Chambliss, but I didn't know a lot about Jim Martin the person. Turns out he's a progressive in Georgia:

With little money, but with a lot of gumption, energy, and a truly progressive message, Jim Martin has closed to a dead-heat in this race. He is pro-choice, pro-gay rights (supports ENDA and LLEA), a consumer advocate, committed civil libertarian (with ACLU awards for his efforts), opposes FISA telecom immunity, opposes the war in Iraq, is a strong environmentalist, a strong labor guy, a strong supporter of affirmative action, and so on. He is also a Vietnam vet, so perhaps he's destined for a Chambliss Special, but we can get his back. This is the kind of Democrat we can't even get in some Blue states, yet running on an explicitly progressive agenda, has a chance to represent the great state of Georgia while ousting the odious Chambliss at the same time.

If he can pull it off, it would be a clarion call that progressives can win anywhere and Democrats shouldn't be afraid of standing up for their policies.

• House of Reps.: I can't keep up with all the developments in the House - that's what Howie Klein is for. But what is clear is that the Republicans have a ton of seats to defend, more every day, and not a lot of cash to do it. That's why their campaign arm, the NRCC, is taking out an $8 million dollar loan to compete. Wait, House Republicans can GET A LOAN? In this credit market?

Senate Campaign Report

Just a few items of interest:

• MS-Sen: What do you do when your handpicked GOP Senator is about to go down to defeat to a Democrat? You try to hide the race on the ballot, that's what!

A judge has temporarily blocked a state ballot that places the U.S. Senate race between Ronnie Musgrove and Roger Wicker near the bottom of the ballot.

Earlier today, the state Election Commission approved placing the Musgrove-Wicker race in the special election section that comes after regular election contests on Nov. 4.

But Pike County Election Commissioner Trudy Berger filed a lawsuit in Hinds County Circuit Court only hours after the commission meeting.

“My client's responsibilities are to the voters and the law is clear. Elections for federal office should be at the top of the ballot. The proposed ballot buries the most prominent election in the state and will cause confusion on Election Day,” said Jackson Attorney Sam Begley, who is representing Berger.

There's just no precedent for this. There's a clear dropoff of votes as you go down the ballot, and any coattails that the top of the ticket would have are nullified by placing the Senate race so far away. This is a novel way to suppress the vote by Mississippi Republicans. I'm almost in awe.

• NC-Sen: Elizabeth Dole is from Kansas. Her husband represented Kansas in the US Senate for decades. She ran for President as a citizen of Kansas. She moved to North Carolina when a seat opened up. That's not unprecedented (Hillary Clinton), but Dole tries to cover for this by saying that her family had a business in North Carolina for many years. Kay Hagan has been tweaking her Kansas roots, leading Dole to respond. But she couldn't actually name the family business that she uses to cement those ties to the state:

Dole (while laughing): I think (Hagan) has indicated many times that I’m from Kansas. But my roots are very deep in North Carolina. Very deep. Here, I grew up in Salisbury, went to the public schools, spent 11 years on the Duke board after I graduated from Duke, own a home there. I own a business in North Carolina, for goodness sake. My family roots go way, way back.

Reporters: What business do you own?

Dole: We had a family farm, which was turned into a real estate development. And it’s just outside of Salisbury. It’s just a beautiful development.

Reporters: What’s the name of the development?

Dole: [10-second Pause followed by nervous laughter] Well…

[Another pause]

Reporters: It’s fine if you …

Dole: I have to stop and think for a moment.

She eventually came up with the name (Forest Glen). Good for her.

• GA-Sen: Jim Martin has been impressively polling close to Saxby Chambliss in this race, which is kind of off the radar screen. And now he's brought in Max Cleland, the former Senator who Chambliss smeared horribly in the 2002 matchup (comparing him to bin Laden), to cut an ad. Keep an eye on this one.

• AK-Sen: The thought was that Ted Stevens wanted a speedy trial to prove his innocence before his Senate election. I guess he's less secure in the court case now, because he's clearly trying to drag it out. His lawyers are asking for reams of documents and plan to present a long, aggressive case. That may be good courtroom strategy, but it's terrible for Stevens' re-election hopes.

• MN-Sen: This is hilarious. No comment necessary.

Interviewer: I just want to know how you feel about the last eight years of George Bush.

Norm Coleman: Well, uh, belehduh belehdudeduh.

That's a verbatim quote.