Too Many Hippies To Punch

What typically happens after a realigning election is that the public starts to become more comfortable with the views of the victorious party. That is also happening this year, despite the best efforts to paint this as a moment of bipartisan center-right ascendancy. And these shifts in public attitudes are occurring because people are speaking out, contra Hildebrand who want the DFHs to shut up and mind their manners. Support for gay marriage is up in the wake of public demonstrations against the passage of Prop. 8. Civil unions now have majority support, and even bigger majorities support full partnership rights to gay couples (that darn word "marriage" still offers problems to people, but that will change). 66 percent now believe gays ought to be able to serve in the military.

Similarly, some long-overdue public statements against the crushing embargo in Cuba has led to a shift in opinion even among Cuban-Americans, who now favor ending the embargo, suggesting that the right-wing political ideology of Cuban exiles is on the wane.

The poll, conducted by Florida International University's Institute for Public Opinion Research and funded by the Brookings Institution and the Cuba Study Group, indicates that 55 percent of those polled favor discontinuing the trade embargo imposed in 1962. Sixty-five percent favor reestablishing diplomatic relations with Cuba.

''The poll has an extraordinary historical importance,'' said Guarione Díaz, president of the Cuban American National Council, a nonpartisan advocacy group in Miami.

The results, particularly as they relate to the embargo, reflect ''the fact that the Cuban Americans who were born in the United States or left after 1980 do not have the same vision as those who came in the 60s,'' Díaz said.

I'd like to see some other opinion surveys on issues, be they cultural or policy-based, but I'd bet you'd see the same thing. This is a changing country with changing attitudes. The constant efforts to curry favor in official Washington by punching a hippie will be very damaging to anyone's political future.

National Wave

The takeaway from this poll showing McCain barely ahead in his home state of Arizona, and the McCain campaign starting to spend in West Virginia, shows that campaigns in the cable news age are effectively national. Nobody's been "targeting" Arizona for it to suddenly be within striking distance. When everyone has access to information, it's kind of difficult to micro-target, and the impact is questionable. You could actually just run a national campaign and benefit from the changes in the national mood, as Obama has, particularly since the financial meltdown.

The other thing this shows is how demographic changes are basically locking up the electoral map for Democrats in the near term. If the Southwest can be put into the Democratic column along with the Northeast, Upper Midwest and the Pacific Coast, there suddenly are almost no paths to victory for the Republicans, as they retreat into a regional Southern and Plains state party. This wave is for real, and it's close to a realignment.

Maybe this will get the GOP to take seriously the National Popular Vote compact, which is only fair and equitable. At some point, our Presidential elections should be made to work the way every single one of our other elections work; based on the concept of one person, one vote.

This Is When You Increase The Pressure

Obama is pulling away. The spate of attacks are falling flat (oh please, McNasty, please bring up Ayers tomorrow night and watch your favorable numbers fall off a cliff), and the ground game advantage is flat ridiculous. In 21 days, it is increasingly likely that we will have President-Elect Barack Obama.

But I'm not going to focus on that. Because the key finding in my mind is that Obama's lead mirrors almost exactly the generic Democratic-Republican lead:

And after nearly eight years of increasingly unpopular Republican rule in the White House, 52 percent of those polled said that they held a favorable view of the Democratic Party, compared with 37 percent who said they held a favorable view of the Republican Party. Voters said that they preferred Democrats to Republicans when it came to questions about who would better handle the issues that are of the greatest concern to voters — including the economy, health care and the war in Iraq.

This is where progressives can have the most impact. We're not just talking about a change at the top, but a realignment, with Democrats winning all over the map and beating the conservative failure of the past 8 years onto the margins of American life. The best evidence of this today is not the topline Presidential numbers, but this incredible story from the Politico:

Darren White and Erik Paulsen were prized Republican recruits, House candidates poised to be the new face of the GOP on Capitol Hill.

But as the two head into the homestretch of their campaigns, GOP operatives say they’ll probably have to win — or lose — on their own. The money national Republicans earmarked for White in New Mexico and for Paulsen in Minnesota will likely go instead to protect GOP incumbents who once looked like locks for reelection.

GOP Reps. John B. Shadegg of Arizona, Lee Terry of Nebraska, Henry Brown Jr. of South Carolina and Dan Lungren of California are all fighting for their political lives, a reversal of fortunes that has caught even the most astute campaign observers by surprise.

That's right, the GOP has again retrenched to protecting its previously safe incumbents, unable to play offense practically anywhere (though unlike in 2006, they'll probably pick up a couple stray seats). No matter where you live, you're likely to have Republicans feeling threatened for perhaps the first time ever. Here in California the financial crisis has brought maybe a half-dozen seats strongly into play where they were outside shots previously. One of them, CA-03 held by Dan Lungren, is mentioned above.

In California, Republican operatives have noticed some troubling trends.

Two years ago, Lungren — who is completing his seventh term in Congress — beat physician and Vietnam War veteran Bill Durston by 21 points. But the economy has taken its toll, and Lungren’s district has one of the highest foreclosure rates in the country. In a newly released Democratic poll, Lungren leads Durston by just 3 percentage points.

Former GOP consultant Allan Hoffenblum said Rep. Dana Rohrabacher and other California Republicans, including Reps. David Dreier and Brian Bilbray, are also at risk.

“The Republican base is not sufficient by itself to elect a Republican in those [California] districts; they still need the independent vote,” Hoffenblum said. “In the past decade, they have been reliably voting Republican for president and for Congress. … There are a lot of angry and scared voters out there. This is not your traditional environment.”

This is what we've been waiting for and what we need. It's unclear whether Obama is going to be bold enough to meet the huge challenges he will face upon his first moments in office. But it is clear that the best opportunity we have to pressure him into doing the right thing is by electing a strongly progressive Congress full of leaders that will be dedicated to a strong agenda for America. Darcy Burner is one of those leaders, and the latest poll shows her leading. That's tremendous news. Darcy is the co-author of the Responsible Plan to End the War in Iraq and is committed to fighting for her constituents instead of corporate lobbyists and Wall Street hacks.

This is just as true in the Senate, where Republicans are so afraid of a filibuster-proof Democratic majority that they are considering throwing McCain overboard.

With party strategists fearing a bloodbath at the polls, GOP officials are shifting to triage mode, determining who can be saved and where to best spend their money.

And with the House and Senate Republican campaign committees being drastically outspent by their Democratic counterparts, and outside groups such as Freedom’s Watch offering far less help than was once anticipated, Republicans are turning to the national party committee as a lender of last resort.

A decision is imminent because television time must be reserved and paid for upfront, and available slots are dwindling.

A representative for the RNC would neither confirm nor deny that it was considering the move.

If they shift away from McCain, cutting off his coattails, it's all over. Republicans played very poor defense in 2006 when they lost control of Congress. Now they are forced to try it again.

Time to make them pay. Make them pay for financial uncertainty and increasing inequality. Make them pay for 47 million uninsured and 30 million in poverty. Make them pay for illegal spying, torture and rendition. Make them pay for an unnecessary occupation of Iraq. Make them pay for crony capitalism and free market fundamentalism.

Work your ass off wherever you are. We can cause a true realignment.

Republicans Using Cheney To Fix Cheney Problem

It's kind of a bad sign when you're trying to save a ridiculously Republican seat in a special election and your ace in the hole is Dick Cheney. Fourthbranch can still raise money, but it's not like he's ever been an enthusiastic campaigner - he's not much for, you know, people.

But this is of course where the GOP stands right now - in trouble of losing House races in the whitest areas of Mississippi - and starting to acknowledge their historically bad position.

The stakes in the 1st District special election couldn't be higher, strategically or symbolically. The loss of a traditionally GOP seat to a Democrat would be the third in a special election this spring and the second in the Deep South after the May 3 victory of Rep. Don Cazayoux (D-La.).

Rank-and-file Republicans say that would force a day of reckoning for their leadership.

"When you connect three dots in anything, that's a bad thing. This connects the dots. At that point, everybody's got to come together and have a come-to-Jesus meeting," said Rep. Tom Davis (R-Va.), a retiring centrist who will help form a new advisory panel at the National Republican Congressional Committee.

"It's a time of sober reflection and, to some extent, resolve. I hope these special elections are a wake-up call," said Rep. Jeb Hensarling (R-Tex.), the leader of the conservative Republican Study Committee.

The fact that Dick Friggin' Cheney is being sent on the campaign trail is a sign that the wake-up call is so far not being heard. Same with this little quip by Roy Blunt on one of the Sunday shows:

BLITZER: When it comes to domestic economic issues, what is the major difference between President Bush's policies, what he wants to do, and what John McCain would do if he were president?

BLUNT: Well, I think what John McCain wants to do is continue these pro-growth tax policies that our friends on the other side have been talking...

(CROSSTALK)

BLITZER: But that's what President Bush wants to do too.

BLUNT: And there is nothing wrong with that. There is nothing wrong with that.

BLITZER: So it would be in effect a third Bush term when it came to pro-growth tax policies?

BLUNT: It would be. I think it would be. And I think that's a good thing.

The same with the outside Republican allies, airing ads in Senate primaries attacking Republicans who favor SCHIP.

They don't seem to recognize that this is their entire PROBLEM with the electorate - Bush's failed economic plans, Cheney's imperialist neoconservatism, Republican obstruction on popular initiatives like children's health care. This is WHY they're in the hole they're in - it's unlikely employing the SAME methods will get them out of it. This is why practically no Republican is safe in November. This is why Republicans who look forthrightly at the situation will rally to the Democratic position. This is why there's the chance of a realignment election.