Kentucky/Oregon Thread

A few souls may be seeing hope in the early numbers out of Kentucky, but the vast majority of them are coming out of Jefferson County, which is Louisville, perhaps Obama's only stronghold in the state. So I fully expect the news nets to call the state for Clinton at the top of the hour. However, the fact that Obama's banked 53,000 votes or so already does mean that he may end up doing a bit better than he did in West Virginia.

Oregon does look to already be a victory because the polls aren't measuring likely voters. Since Oregon votes by mail, they're measuring people who have by and large already voted.

...And Clinton is indeed the projected winner. By a "significant margin," well over 20 points. Somehow I think that Clinton's voters didn't turn out in quite the numbers everyone thinks, yet clearly she's going to win.

...This doesn't really belong in the election thread, but I wanted to note that Sen. Robert Byrd endorsed Obama the other day. Robert Byrd, who as our Republican friends never tire of mentioning, was in the KKK, who probably never thought in his life he would have the opportunity to absolve himself of such an error in judgment by endorsing a biracial man for President of the United States. It's a touching tribute to just how different this primary season has been.

But, some of it has been depressingly the same, as we see in the Kentucky results, and county after county in the Hill country going 90-8 for Clinton over Obama. The Appalachia Problem, as well as The Race Chasm, has been a powerful predictor of where we're at in this race. I know Obama largely didn't contest West Virginia or Kentucky, but there's clearly a wall with Appalachian voters that Obama cannot breach. Is that loyalty to Clinton, purely race, or something in between? Not sure.

...Obama's speech here. I didn't see or hear it. I did hear Clinton's speech in the car. Both paid tribute to Ted Kennedy. Obama has been immediately called as the winner in Oregon based on exit polling. So a split decision tonight, as expected. And Oregon being a state Democrats have to win in November, Clinton immediately dropped out upon losing the primary didn't mention it.

A word on the "we won the popular vote" flim-flammery. Both sides have paid well for a cadre of professional liars. These liars are the guys in debate class who were as good defending one side of the argument as they were defending the other. They are expert at manipulating the data to fit the narrative they have to push. Frankly this happens in every political campaign. People are more aware of it nowadays, which is why the Clinton campaign's aggressiveness at pushing these arbitrary markers ends up looking a little less than salutary.

Still, I'm with Obama:

The road here has been long, and that is partly because we’ve traveled it with one of the most formidable candidates to ever run for this office. In her thirty-five years of public service, Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton has never given up on her fight for the American people, and tonight I congratulate her on her victory in Kentucky. We have had our disagreements during this campaign, but we all admire her courage, her commitment and her perseverance. No matter how this primary ends, Senator Clinton has shattered myths and broken barriers and changed the America in which my daughters and yours will come of age.

Anyone else running on her record and with her stature would actually have been out of this race a long time ago, probably before March. Clinton really has adapted to fit the changing dynamic of the race, and capitalized on Obama's tough April by reinventing herself as a populist fighter when she initially ran as an inevitable establishment Democrat. She may have adapted too late, but it's a testament to her political skills.

Waiting on raw numbers. Clinton won by about 250K votes in Kentucky, but more votes are expected to be cast in Oregon - perhaps over a million. If the victory is significant enough, tonight will be a tie in both the popular vote and the delegate count. And every primary will be done except for Montana and South Dakota and Puerto Rico.